This is a Scorecard review, revisiting a past LF0 research call against what actually happened.
Ticker: ATI Rating: Sell Published: 2026-09-16 Checkpoint: 2026-10-16 Entry price: $189.65 Latest price: $189.31 as of 2026-10-15 Stock return since entry: -0.2% Signal return: +0.2% Verdict: Correct so far
This is the 1-month checkpoint for this call. LF0 publishes monthly Scorecard updates through month 6, using the closest available daily close on or before the checkpoint date.
Read the original LF0 analysis
What I Said
I rated ATI a Sell because I thought the market was already paying for the aerospace recovery. My original case leaned on the fact that Q2 2026 revenue had reached $1.3B and EBITDA $260.8M, but the stock still traded at 29.4x EV/EBITDA, 30x forward P/E, and only a 1.3% FCF yield, with $2.2B of debt and 1.5x net debt/EBITDA limiting the cushion.
Peer Comparison
| Company | Return Since Entry |
|---|---|
| ATI (this call) | -0.2% |
| CRS | -7.7% |
| HEI | +4.7% |
| HWM | -1.6% |
| HXL | +0.6% |
| RTX | -3.0% |
Why It’s Working (Or Not)
Over this tracking window, following the Sell has earned a small gain: ATI is down slightly, so a short position would be modestly positive to date. That keeps my valuation-timing argument intact for now, because the shares have not re-rated higher despite the operating improvement I cited. The peer group has been mixed, with several comparables also lower and several higher, so ATI has not been moving in a way that clearly invalidates my thesis. The specific risk I highlighted — paying a rich multiple while carrying meaningful leverage — has not been disproven by the price action so far.
What Could Still Prove Me Wrong
I would be wrong if ATI keeps compounding and the market continues to reward that with a higher multiple rather than a reset. In particular, if revenue growth stays above 8.0% for the next couple of quarters and FCF margin moves above 8.0%, that would strengthen the case that the current valuation is justified. I would also have to reconsider if leverage starts to improve materially instead of staying near the 1.5x net debt/EBITDA area I flagged.
The September 2026 Cohort
Other directional calls published the same month:
| Ticker | Rating | Entry | Latest | Stock Return | Signal Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TLN | Sell | $294.54 | $353.60 | +20.1% | -20.1% | Incorrect so far |
| BORR | Sell | $4.44 | $4.55 | +2.5% | -2.5% | Incorrect so far |
| ASX | Sell | $41.63 | $41.89 | +0.6% | -0.6% | Incorrect so far |
| CCJ | Sell | $88.07 | $83.23 | -5.5% | +5.5% | Correct so far |
| CHTR | Sell | $117.55 | $109.99 | -6.4% | +6.4% | Correct so far |
| RXT | Sell | $3.49 | $3.18 | -8.7% | +8.7% | Correct so far |
| PL | Sell | $16.42 | $14.54 | -11.4% | +11.4% | Correct so far |
| ALAB | Sell | $351.31 | $301.98 | -14.0% | +14.0% | Correct so far |
| SIMO | Sell | $269.00 | $218.39 | -18.8% | +18.8% | Correct so far |
| DOCN | Sell | $136.29 | $109.47 | -19.7% | +19.7% | Correct so far |
| ICHR | Sell | $59.42 | $46.65 | -21.5% | +21.5% | Correct so far |
| LAR | Sell | $6.70 | $4.77 | -28.8% | +28.8% | Correct so far |
| CUE | Sell | $26.96 | $18.67 | -30.7% | +30.7% | Correct so far |
Live LF0 scorecard: The Scorecard | Research Performance dashboard
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell securities. Returns use LF0’s daily-close scorecard methodology.
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