This is a Scorecard review, revisiting a past LF0 research call against what actually happened.
Ticker: MYRG Rating: Sell Published: 2026-07-17 Checkpoint: 2026-10-17 Entry price: $391.51 Latest price: $280.16 as of 2026-10-16 Stock return since entry: -28.4% Signal return: +28.4% Verdict: Correct so far
This is the 3-month checkpoint for this call. LF0 publishes monthly Scorecard updates through month 6, using the closest available daily close on or before the checkpoint date.
Read the original LF0 analysis
What I Said
I rated MYR Group a Sell because I thought the stock was already pricing in a lot of good news: strong revenue growth, a 6.8% EBITDA margin, and net cash, but also a valuation of 23.4x EV/EBITDA and 29.1x forward P/E. My view was that the downside case was easier to trigger than the upside case, especially if project timing slipped or the Valley acquisition took longer to integrate than expected.
Peer Comparison
| Company | Return Since Entry |
|---|---|
| MYRG (this call) | -28.4% |
| EME | -3.0% |
| FIX | -14.0% |
| FLR | -4.3% |
| MTZ | -42.0% |
| PRIM | -14.7% |
Why It’s Working (Or Not)
Over this tracking window, following the Sell would have earned 28.4%, which means the short case has worked. MYRG has fallen from 391.51 to 280.16, so the market has not rewarded the valuation multiple I was worried about. The peer group has also been mostly lower, but MYRG’s decline still fits the original thesis that the stock had limited room for error and could re-rate down if execution disappointed. That makes the specific valuation concern I highlighted look validated to date.
The July 2026 Cohort
Other directional calls published the same month:
| Ticker | Rating | Entry | Latest | Stock Return | Signal Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NLST | Sell | $2.44 | $5.71 | +134.0% | -134.0% | Incorrect so far |
| BMNR | Sell | $17.74 | $21.66 | +22.1% | -22.1% | Incorrect so far |
| FTNT | Sell | $156.25 | $169.13 | +8.2% | -8.2% | Incorrect so far |
| RDW | Sell | $8.99 | $8.39 | -6.7% | +6.7% | Correct so far |
| TPL | Sell | $408.26 | $350.92 | -14.0% | +14.0% | Correct so far |
| UAN | Buy | $110.58 | $126.36 | +14.3% | +14.3% | Correct so far |
| QUBT | Sell | $7.43 | $6.36 | -14.4% | +14.4% | Correct so far |
| VSAT | Sell | $69.54 | $58.83 | -15.4% | +15.4% | Correct so far |
| TTWO | Sell | $247.62 | $205.28 | -17.1% | +17.1% | Correct so far |
| ONTO | Sell | $319.32 | $220.70 | -30.9% | +30.9% | Correct so far |
| AMKR | Sell | $60.60 | $41.82 | -31.0% | +31.0% | Correct so far |
| HUT | Sell | $98.33 | $67.75 | -31.1% | +31.1% | Correct so far |
| MARA | Sell | $11.67 | $7.53 | -35.5% | +35.5% | Correct so far |
| RCAT | Sell | $7.83 | $4.72 | -39.7% | +39.7% | Correct so far |
| MTZ | Sell | $380.63 | $191.02 | -49.8% | +49.8% | Correct so far |
| SMR | Strong Sell | $8.81 | $5.83 | -33.8% | +50.7% | Correct so far |
| CIFR | Sell | $21.85 | $8.98 | -58.9% | +58.9% | Correct so far |
| FLNC | Sell | $14.42 | $5.80 | -59.8% | +59.8% | Correct so far |
Live LF0 scorecard: The Scorecard | Research Performance dashboard
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell securities. Returns use LF0’s daily-close scorecard methodology.
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