This is a Scorecard review, revisiting a past LF0 research call against what actually happened.
Ticker: FLNC Rating: Sell Published: 2026-07-23 Checkpoint: 2026-09-23 Entry price: $14.42 Latest price: $7.39 as of 2026-09-21 Stock return since entry: -48.8% Signal return: +48.8% Verdict: Correct so far
This is the 2-month checkpoint for this call. LF0 publishes monthly Scorecard updates through month 6, using the closest available daily close on or before the checkpoint date.
Read the original LF0 analysis
What I Said
I argued that FLNC was still a Sell because the company had a big storage opportunity, but the investment case depended on backlog quality, margin execution, liquidity, and whether short interest was correctly discounting operating risk. I also pointed to the specific numbers that worried me: EBITDA was still negative, levered free cash flow was deeply negative, and the business was leaning on financing rather than generating its own cash. The core question in my original call was whether the 7.5 GW contracted backlog and 115.9 GW pipeline would translate into durable cash generation, not just revenue growth.
Peer Comparison
| Company | Return Since Entry |
|---|---|
| FLNC (this call) | -48.8% |
| BE | +28.5% |
| ENVX | -31.5% |
| ESS | -6.2% |
| STEM | -32.5% |
Why It’s Working (Or Not)
So far, following my Sell would have earned 48.8%, which means the bearish call has worked in the direction I expected. The stock has fallen sharply while the peer set has been mixed, with several comparables also down but BE moving higher, so FLNC has not simply tracked the group in a uniform way. That supports my original concern that backlog and growth alone were not enough to offset execution and liquidity risk. The part of the thesis that has held up best is the idea that the market was still discounting fragile cash generation and financing dependence rather than rewarding the pipeline story.
What Could Still Prove Me Wrong
What could still prove me wrong is a clear turn in the operating metrics I highlighted: if revenue growth reaccelerates above 15% for multiple quarters, operating margin turns positive, and free cash flow moves above zero, then the cash-burn thesis would be weakening. I would also have to reconsider if the current ratio stays comfortably above 1.4x while levered free cash flow improves materially, because that would show liquidity pressure is easing instead of worsening. If backlog conversion stalls again or the company keeps funding losses with external capital, that would reinforce my original Sell.
The July 2026 Cohort
Other directional calls published the same month:
| Ticker | Rating | Entry | Latest | Stock Return | Signal Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NLST | Sell | $2.44 | $5.10 | +109.0% | -109.0% | Incorrect so far |
| BMNR | Sell | $17.74 | $28.25 | +59.2% | -59.2% | Incorrect so far |
| RDW | Sell | $8.99 | $11.60 | +29.0% | -29.0% | Incorrect so far |
| QUBT | Sell | $7.43 | $8.96 | +20.6% | -20.6% | Incorrect so far |
| MARA | Sell | $11.67 | $13.28 | +13.8% | -13.8% | Incorrect so far |
| FTNT | Sell | $156.25 | $175.23 | +12.1% | -12.1% | Incorrect so far |
| VSAT | Sell | $69.54 | $76.38 | +9.8% | -9.8% | Incorrect so far |
| HUT | Sell | $98.33 | $103.42 | +5.2% | -5.2% | Incorrect so far |
| SMR | Strong Sell | $8.81 | $8.79 | -0.2% | +0.3% | Correct so far |
| AMBA | Sell | $72.90 | $68.85 | -5.6% | +5.6% | Correct so far |
| TPL | Sell | $408.26 | $366.80 | -10.2% | +10.2% | Correct so far |
| RCAT | Sell | $7.83 | $6.95 | -11.2% | +11.2% | Correct so far |
| CIFR | Sell | $21.85 | $18.90 | -13.5% | +13.5% | Correct so far |
| ONTO | Sell | $319.32 | $275.98 | -13.6% | +13.6% | Correct so far |
| AMKR | Sell | $60.60 | $52.19 | -13.9% | +13.9% | Correct so far |
| TTWO | Sell | $247.62 | $209.92 | -15.2% | +15.2% | Correct so far |
| UAN | Buy | $110.58 | $129.10 | +16.7% | +16.7% | Correct so far |
| MYRG | Sell | $391.51 | $288.45 | -26.3% | +26.3% | Correct so far |
| MTZ | Sell | $380.63 | $222.90 | -41.4% | +41.4% | Correct so far |
Live LF0 scorecard: The Scorecard | Research Performance dashboard
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell securities. Returns use LF0’s daily-close scorecard methodology.
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