This is a Scorecard review, revisiting a past LF0 research call against what actually happened.
Ticker: BSX Rating: Buy Published: 2026-06-14 Checkpoint: 2026-07-14 Entry price: $46.76 Latest price: $42.63 as of 2026-07-14 Stock return since entry: -8.8% Signal return: -8.8% Verdict: Incorrect so far
This is the 1-month checkpoint for this call. LF0 publishes monthly Scorecard updates through month 6, using the closest available daily close on or before the checkpoint date.
Read the original LF0 analysis
What I Said
I argued that Boston Scientific was a good business but not cheap enough to justify a more aggressive Buy, because the stock already reflected solid growth and the balance sheet was about to get more demanding. I pointed to 15.8% organic growth in FY2025 as the main support, but I also flagged $12.6B of debt and a 13.4x EV/EBITDA multiple as the key reasons I stayed cautious. I said I would only turn more constructive if leverage stayed below 2.5x net debt/EBITDA and the acquisition helped earnings faster than it added risk.
Peer Comparison
| Company | Return Since Entry |
|---|---|
| BSX (this call) | -8.8% |
| ABT | +19.9% |
| EW | +0.4% |
| MDT | +19.9% |
| SYK | -3.8% |
| ZBH | +8.2% |
Why It’s Working (Or Not)
This call has not worked over the tracking window: a long position would have lost 8.8% from my entry, which is the opposite of what I needed from a Buy. The peer group was mixed to higher overall, with several comparable medtech names posting solid gains, so BSX did not simply move with a weak sector backdrop. That makes the original valuation-and-leverage caution look more relevant, because the stock did not reward the thesis that growth and quality alone would carry the multiple higher. The specific test I set around debt and post-deal earnings has not been validated by the price action I have seen here.
The June 2026 Cohort
Other directional calls published the same month:
| Ticker | Rating | Entry | Latest | Stock Return | Signal Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SKYH | Sell | $9.37 | $9.10 | -2.9% | +2.9% | Correct so far |
| SOUN | Sell | $7.33 | $4.72 | -35.6% | +35.6% | Correct so far |
| AEHR | Sell | $115.30 | $60.60 | -47.4% | +47.4% | Correct so far |
| BW | Sell | $17.76 | $4.62 | -74.0% | +74.0% | Correct so far |
Sector Scorecard: Healthcare
How are our Healthcare calls doing overall, and where does BSX sit among them?
| Peer call | Rating | Published | Signal return |
|---|---|---|---|
| CUE | Sell | 2026-09-02 | +38.0% |
| OWLT | Sell | 2026-08-12 | +29.3% |
| STXS | Sell | 2026-08-16 | +27.3% |
| WGS | Sell | 2026-08-09 | +18.3% |
| NUTX | Buy | 2026-08-16 | -1.2% |
| SDGR | Sell | 2026-08-17 | -29.9% |
Across sectors, Industrials led our directional calls with a 92% hit rate and +23.7% average signal return, while Technology also posted a 92% hit rate with +15.7% and the largest call count at 24. Communication Services was perfect at 100% with +17.4%, but Basic Materials and Consumer Cyclical were thin at 3 calls each, so we note the samples are small even though both showed 100% hit rates and +16.8% and +13.7% average returns, respectively. Healthcare was mid-pack at 57% with +11.0%, and Energy lagged at 50% with +2.5%; the best call was Technology’s CIFR at +58.9%, and the worst was Technology’s NLST at -135.2%.
Sector League Table
| Sector | Calls | Hit rate | Avg signal return | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industrials | 13 | 92% | +23.7% | BW +74.0% | CAR -12.3% |
| Communication Services | 5 | 100% | +17.4% | SPHR +29.7% | CHTR +6.3% |
| Utilities | 3 | 33% | +17.1% | FLNC +59.8% | TLN -6.9% |
| Basic Materials | 3 | 100% | +16.8% | LAR +30.9% | GFI +5.4% |
| Financial Services | 4 | 75% | +15.9% | MARA +35.5% | BMNR -22.1% |
| Technology | 24 | 92% | +15.7% | CIFR +58.9% | NLST -135.2% |
| Consumer Cyclical | 3 | 100% | +13.7% | PENN +19.5% | RRGB +7.4% |
| Healthcare | 7 | 57% | +11.0% | CUE +38.0% | SDGR -29.9% |
| Energy | 4 | 50% | +2.5% | TPL +14.0% | VNOM -8.0% |
| Real Estate* | 2 | 100% | +18.9% | SRG +34.8% | SKYH +2.9% |
| Unclassified* | 2 | 50% | +7.4% | NXE +19.5% | FISV -4.8% |
\* Fewer than 3 calls: not ranked.
Sector by Publish Month
| Sector | Jun 2026 | Jul 2026 | Aug 2026 | Sep 2026 | Oct 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Technology | +41.5% (2) | +1.0% (7) | +18.8% (3) | +20.2% (6) | +18.3% (6) |
| Industrials | +74.0% (1) | +35.1% (5) | +7.2% (2) | +2.4% (3) | +18.4% (2) |
| Healthcare | -5.1% (1) | — | +8.8% (5) | +38.0% (1) | — |
| Communication Services | — | +17.1% (1) | +19.5% (2) | +6.3% (1) | +24.6% (1) |
| Energy | — | +14.0% (1) | -8.0% (1) | -2.3% (1) | +6.4% (1) |
| Financial Services | — | +14.8% (3) | — | — | +19.0% (1) |
| Utilities | — | +59.8% (1) | -1.6% (1) | — | -6.9% (1) |
| Basic Materials | — | +14.3% (1) | — | +30.9% (1) | +5.4% (1) |
| Consumer Cyclical | — | — | +13.7% (3) | — | — |
| Real Estate | +2.9% (1) | — | +34.8% (1) | — | — |
| Unclassified | — | — | +19.5% (1) | — | -4.8% (1) |
Each cell: average signal return to date of the calls published that month (calls in brackets). Signal return is direction-adjusted, so a positive number means our call is right.
Live LF0 scorecard: The Scorecard | Research Performance dashboard
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell securities. Returns use LF0’s daily-close scorecard methodology.
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