This is a Scorecard review, revisiting a past LF0 research call against what actually happened.
Ticker: ADTN Rating: Sell Published: 2026-08-11 Checkpoint: 2026-11-11 Entry price: $7.76 Latest price: $4.41 as of 2026-11-10 Stock return since entry: -43.2% Signal return: +43.2% Verdict: Correct so far
This is the 3-month checkpoint for this call. LF0 publishes monthly Scorecard updates through month 6, using the closest available daily close on or before the checkpoint date.
Previous checkpoint: our 2-month review (2026-10-11) was correct (stock return -3.9% since entry). Each monthly review is judged on its own date, so the verdict can change from one month to the next.
Read the original LF0 analysis
What I Said
This Adtran Holdings stock analysis reviews ADTN valuation, margin pressure, free cash flow, balance sheet risk, revenue trends, and whether the turnaround case is improving.
Quick thesis: ADTN is a fragile turnaround story. The stock needs revenue stabilization, margin recovery, and stronger free cash flow before the valuation discount becomes compelling.
| Factor | Why it matters |
|---|
Peer Comparison
| Company | Return Since Entry |
|---|---|
| ADTN (this call) | -43.2% |
| AVNW | -24.5% |
| CALX | -18.6% |
| CIEN | -29.8% |
| HLIT | -12.8% |
| VIAV | -19.2% |
How Other Analysts Rate It
Every Wall Street rating action logged on Yahoo Finance since our Sell on 2026-08-11, one row per action (a firm that updates three times appears three times). LF0 rows are in bold.
| Date | Firm | Rating | Action | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-11 | LF0 Equity Research | Sell | Original call at $7.76 | |
| 2026-09-11 | LF0 Equity Research | Sell | 1-month update | |
| 2026-10-11 | LF0 Equity Research | Sell | 2-month update | |
| 2026-11-03 | Needham | Buy | Reiterated | $9.00 (from $14.00) |
| 2026-11-04 | B. Riley Securities | Buy | Reiterated | $14.00 (from $21.00) |
| 2026-11-04 | Evercore ISI Group | Outperform | Reiterated | $8.00 (from $11.00) |
| 2026-11-04 | Rosenblatt | Neutral | Buy to Neutral (downgrade) | $6.25 (from $15.00) |
| 2026-11-11 | LF0 Equity Research | Sell | 3-month update (this report) |
Since our Sell on 2026-08-11, 1 rating change were logged by Yahoo Finance: 1 moved toward our view (Rosenblatt (Buy to Neutral, 2026-11-04)). The Street has largely drifted toward our call.
3 firms still Buy-rated against our call at their latest action: Needham, B. Riley Securities and Evercore ISI Group.
A Hold is not always neutral. These firms moved to Hold from the opposite side of our call, a bearish shift: Rosenblatt (Buy to Neutral, 2026-11-04).
Counting each firm’s latest action in this window: 3 bullish, 1 neutral, 0 bearish out of 4 firms.
Source: Yahoo Finance analyst rating actions. Dates are when Yahoo logged the action. Analyst ratings are third-party opinions, not LF0 views or recommendations.
Why It’s Working (Or Not)
Entry $7.76, latest $4.41, stock return -43.2%. Verdict: Correct so far.
The August 2026 Cohort
Other directional calls published the same month:
| Ticker | Rating | Entry | Latest | Stock Return | Signal Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SDGR | Sell | $17.40 | $32.41 | +86.3% | -86.3% | Incorrect so far |
| GTN | Sell | $4.83 | $5.82 | +20.5% | -20.5% | Incorrect so far |
| LHX | Sell | $260.92 | $275.96 | +5.8% | -5.8% | Incorrect so far |
| AES | Sell | $14.54 | $14.92 | +2.6% | -2.6% | Incorrect so far |
| NUTX | Buy | $188.41 | $186.25 | -1.1% | -1.1% | Incorrect so far |
| PENN | Sell | $18.56 | $18.45 | -0.6% | +0.6% | Correct so far |
| VNOM | Sell | $41.67 | $40.19 | -3.5% | +3.5% | Correct so far |
| RRGB | Sell | $9.51 | $8.47 | -10.9% | +10.9% | Correct so far |
| SPHR | Sell | $147.34 | $122.23 | -17.0% | +17.0% | Correct so far |
| BA | Sell | $210.46 | $173.38 | -17.6% | +17.6% | Correct so far |
| NNDM | Sell | $1.65 | $1.33 | -19.4% | +19.4% | Correct so far |
| NXE | Sell | $10.40 | $8.33 | -19.9% | +19.9% | Correct so far |
| OI | Sell | $6.79 | $5.11 | -24.7% | +24.7% | Correct so far |
| OWLT | Sell | $5.81 | $4.34 | -25.3% | +25.3% | Correct so far |
| STXS | Sell | $1.39 | $1.03 | -25.9% | +25.9% | Correct so far |
| WGS | Sell | $77.88 | $54.83 | -29.6% | +29.6% | Correct so far |
| LRCX | Sell | $343.48 | $222.39 | -35.3% | +35.3% | Correct so far |
| SRG | Strong Sell | $2.11 | $1.58 | -25.1% | +37.7% | Correct so far |
Sector Scorecard: Technology
How are our Technology calls doing overall, and where does ADTN sit among them?
| Peer call | Rating | Published | Signal return |
|---|---|---|---|
| CIFR | Sell | 2026-07-08 | +70.1% |
| INOD | Strong Sell | 2026-10-10 | +62.2% |
| SMTC | Strong Sell | 2026-10-13 | +51.5% |
| AEHR | Sell | 2026-06-18 | +48.3% |
| SOUN | Sell | 2026-06-14 | +47.2% |
| UMAC | Strong Sell | 2026-10-14 | +43.5% |
| AMKR | Sell | 2026-07-27 | +43.1% |
| DOCN | Sell | 2026-09-28 | +41.7% |
Among sectors with at least 3 directional calls, Technology has done best, with an average signal return of +24.4% across 25 calls and a 88% hit rate. Healthcare has done worst, at -0.1% across 12 calls and a 50% hit rate. Samples are small and sector gaps can reverse quickly, so we read this as a scoreboard, not a forecast.
Sector League Table
| Sector | Calls | Hit rate | Avg signal return | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Technology | 25 | 88% | +24.4% | CIFR +70.1% | NLST -163.5% |
| Financial Services | 4 | 75% | +21.6% | HUT +42.3% | BMNR -1.9% |
| Basic Materials | 4 | 100% | +19.9% | LAR +38.7% | UAN +1.7% |
| Utilities | 3 | 33% | +18.2% | FLNC +66.0% | TLN -8.8% |
| Industrials | 16 | 69% | +17.9% | BW +74.8% | AMPX -32.9% |
| Energy | 6 | 83% | +11.0% | BORR +28.4% | SM -26.9% |
| Consumer Cyclical | 4 | 75% | +8.7% | OI +24.7% | FLUT -1.3% |
| Communication Services | 5 | 60% | +2.9% | LUMN +22.9% | GTN -20.5% |
| Healthcare | 12 | 50% | -0.1% | CUE +30.4% | SDGR -86.3% |
| Real Estate* | 2 | 50% | +12.3% | SRG +37.7% | SKYH -13.0% |
| Unclassified* | 2 | 50% | -9.8% | NXE +19.9% | FISV -39.5% |
\* Fewer than 3 calls: not ranked.
Sector by Publish Month
| Sector | Jun 2026 | Jul 2026 | Aug 2026 | Sep 2026 | Oct 2026 | Nov 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Technology | +47.8% (2) | +2.3% (7) | +32.6% (3) | +32.6% (6) | +29.4% (7) | — |
| Industrials | +74.8% (1) | +39.9% (5) | +5.9% (2) | +7.5% (3) | +5.2% (3) | -19.5% (2) |
| Healthcare | -5.1% (1) | — | -1.3% (5) | +30.4% (1) | -3.7% (3) | -4.3% (2) |
| Energy | — | +19.1% (1) | +3.5% (1) | +28.4% (1) | +4.9% (3) | — |
| Communication Services | — | +9.3% (1) | -1.7% (2) | -14.0% (1) | +22.9% (1) | — |
| Basic Materials | — | +1.7% (1) | — | +38.7% (1) | +19.6% (2) | — |
| Consumer Cyclical | — | — | +12.1% (3) | — | — | -1.3% (1) |
| Financial Services | — | +25.8% (3) | — | — | +9.1% (1) | — |
| Utilities | — | +66.0% (1) | -2.6% (1) | — | -8.8% (1) | — |
| Real Estate | -13.0% (1) | — | +37.7% (1) | — | — | — |
| Unclassified | — | — | +19.9% (1) | — | -39.5% (1) | — |
Each cell: average signal return to date of the calls published that month (calls in brackets). Signal return is direction-adjusted, so a positive number means our call is right.
Live LF0 scorecard: The Scorecard | Research Performance dashboard
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell securities. Returns use LF0’s daily-close scorecard methodology.
Leave a Comment