This is a Scorecard review, revisiting a past LF0 research call against what actually happened.
Ticker: TTWO Rating: Sell Published: 2026-07-28 Checkpoint: 2026-09-28 Entry price: $247.62 Latest price: $201.44 as of 2026-09-25 Stock return since entry: -18.6% Signal return: +18.6% Verdict: Correct so far
This is the 2-month checkpoint for this call. LF0 publishes monthly Scorecard updates through month 6, using the closest available daily close on or before the checkpoint date.
Read the original LF0 analysis
What I Said
I argued that TTWO was already priced for a successful Grand Theft Auto VI cycle, even though the reported business still showed only 2.3% operating margin, 11.8% EBITDA margin, and negative net income. My view was that the stock needed real margin improvement, not just faith in the franchise, and I pointed to a 24.5x forward P/E as too rich for a business still earning so little on sales.
Peer Comparison
| Company | Return Since Entry |
|---|---|
| TTWO (this call) | -18.6% |
| EA | +0.0% |
| NTES | -4.5% |
| OTGLY | +2.6% |
| TCEHY | -3.0% |
Why It’s Working (Or Not)
So far, that Sell call has worked: if I had shorted TTWO at my entry price, I would be up about 18.6% over this tracking window. The stock has moved lower while the peer set has been mixed to slightly down overall, which tells me TTWO has not simply followed a broad peer rally and has instead drifted in a way that supports my caution. The specific thesis point that has held up is the lack of visible margin expansion; I do not have evidence in this review that operating margin has moved into the high single digits or that EBITDA has cleared the level I said would change my mind. I also cannot claim the GTA VI launch has already converted into the stronger earnings base I wanted to see, so the original valuation concern still looks relevant.
What Could Still Prove Me Wrong
I could still be wrong if TTWO shows clear pre-launch or post-launch margin expansion, especially if operating margin moves meaningfully above the low-single-digit range and EBITDA steps up toward the level I flagged. I would also reconsider if the company demonstrates that the GTA VI cycle is producing durable earnings power rather than a one-time bump, with free cash flow staying strong and not just revenue growth doing the work. If the launch slips again or the first post-launch quarters fail to improve bookings and margins, that would reinforce my original bearish case rather than disprove it.
The July 2026 Cohort
Other directional calls published the same month:
| Ticker | Rating | Entry | Latest | Stock Return | Signal Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NLST | Sell | $2.44 | $5.56 | +127.9% | -127.9% | Incorrect so far |
| BMNR | Sell | $17.74 | $27.56 | +55.4% | -55.4% | Incorrect so far |
| RDW | Sell | $8.99 | $11.62 | +29.3% | -29.3% | Incorrect so far |
| QUBT | Sell | $7.43 | $8.96 | +20.6% | -20.6% | Incorrect so far |
| FTNT | Sell | $156.25 | $173.46 | +11.0% | -11.0% | Incorrect so far |
| MARA | Sell | $11.67 | $12.55 | +7.5% | -7.5% | Incorrect so far |
| VSAT | Sell | $69.54 | $73.02 | +5.0% | -5.0% | Incorrect so far |
| AMBA | Sell | $72.90 | $72.68 | -0.3% | +0.3% | Correct so far |
| HUT | Sell | $98.33 | $96.82 | -1.5% | +1.5% | Correct so far |
| SMR | Strong Sell | $8.81 | $8.42 | -4.4% | +6.6% | Correct so far |
| ONTO | Sell | $319.32 | $287.64 | -9.9% | +9.9% | Correct so far |
| UAN | Buy | $110.58 | $122.70 | +11.0% | +11.0% | Correct so far |
| AMKR | Sell | $60.60 | $53.61 | -11.5% | +11.5% | Correct so far |
| RCAT | Sell | $7.83 | $6.66 | -14.9% | +14.9% | Correct so far |
| TPL | Sell | $408.26 | $341.07 | -16.5% | +16.5% | Correct so far |
| CIFR | Sell | $21.85 | $17.73 | -18.9% | +18.9% | Correct so far |
| MYRG | Sell | $391.51 | $292.58 | -25.3% | +25.3% | Correct so far |
| MTZ | Sell | $380.63 | $212.85 | -44.1% | +44.1% | Correct so far |
| FLNC | Sell | $14.42 | $7.85 | -45.6% | +45.6% | Correct so far |
Live LF0 scorecard: The Scorecard | Research Performance dashboard
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell securities. Returns use LF0’s daily-close scorecard methodology.
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