This is a Scorecard review, revisiting a past LF0 research call against what actually happened.
Ticker: ALT Rating: Sell Published: 2026-08-26 Checkpoint: 2026-09-26 Entry price: $3.15 Latest price: $3.06 as of 2026-09-25 Stock return since entry: -2.9% Signal return: +2.9% Verdict: Correct so far
This is the 1-month checkpoint for this call. LF0 publishes monthly Scorecard updates through month 6, using the closest available daily close on or before the checkpoint date.
Read the original LF0 analysis
What I Said
I said Altimmune was a Sell because the stock was already pricing in success before Phase 3 proof, while the business still depended on financing rather than operating cash flow. My original concern was that the company had $326.3M of cash and a 26.8x current ratio, but also a -$48.8M TTM levered free cash flow burn and no product revenue, so the valuation at 10,716.0x EV/Revenue looked too demanding for a pre-revenue biotech.
Peer Comparison
| Company | Return Since Entry |
|---|---|
| ALT (this call) | -2.9% |
| AMLX | -20.5% |
| GPCR | -27.2% |
| RYTM | -11.8% |
| SKYE | -17.3% |
| VKTX | +3.4% |
Why It’s Working (Or Not)
So far, following my Sell would have earned a positive return of 2.9%, which means the short case has worked in the direction I expected. The stock has drifted lower while the comparable biotech names were mostly down as well, so ALT has not stood out as a clear outlier against the peer set, but it has still moved the right way for my call. The specific thesis point that has held up is the combination of no revenue and ongoing cash burn: I have not seen anything in this window that would make the -$48.8M TTM burn or the pre-Phase 3 valuation concern go away. At the same time, the call is only modestly in the money, so I would not overstate the strength of the evidence yet.
What Could Still Prove Me Wrong
What could still prove me wrong is a clear Phase 3 de-risking event for pemvidutide that materially improves the approval odds and changes how the market values the pipeline. I would also be challenged if cash burn narrows meaningfully from the -$48.8M TTM level without a dilutive raise, because that would weaken my financing-overhang argument. If the company keeps runway intact and shows a credible path toward the 30M+ annual improvement in levered free cash flow that I wanted, I would have to revisit the Sell.
The August 2026 Cohort
Other directional calls published the same month:
| Ticker | Rating | Entry | Latest | Stock Return | Signal Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SDGR | Sell | $17.40 | $28.85 | +65.8% | -65.8% | Incorrect so far |
| WGS | Sell | $77.88 | $88.40 | +13.5% | -13.5% | Incorrect so far |
| AES | Sell | $14.71 | $14.87 | +1.1% | -1.1% | Incorrect so far |
| VNOM | Sell | $41.67 | $40.93 | -1.8% | +1.8% | Correct so far |
| SPHR | Sell | $147.34 | $141.13 | -4.2% | +4.2% | Correct so far |
| NNDM | Sell | $1.65 | $1.57 | -4.8% | +4.8% | Correct so far |
| GTN | Sell | $4.83 | $4.58 | -5.2% | +5.2% | Correct so far |
| BA | Sell | $210.46 | $198.07 | -5.9% | +5.9% | Correct so far |
| STXS | Sell | $1.39 | $1.30 | -6.5% | +6.5% | Correct so far |
| ADTN | Sell | $7.76 | $7.13 | -8.1% | +8.1% | Correct so far |
| LRCX | Sell | $343.48 | $315.21 | -8.2% | +8.2% | Correct so far |
| LHX | Sell | $260.92 | $237.69 | -8.9% | +8.9% | Correct so far |
| NXE | Sell | $10.40 | $9.19 | -11.6% | +11.6% | Correct so far |
| OWLT | Sell | $5.81 | $5.04 | -13.3% | +13.3% | Correct so far |
| OI | Sell | $6.79 | $5.86 | -13.7% | +13.7% | Correct so far |
| PENN | Sell | $18.56 | $15.65 | -15.7% | +15.7% | Correct so far |
| NUTX | Buy | $188.41 | $220.11 | +16.8% | +16.8% | Correct so far |
| SRG | Strong Sell | $2.11 | $1.82 | -13.7% | +20.6% | Correct so far |
| RRGB | Sell | $9.51 | $7.25 | -23.8% | +23.8% | Correct so far |
Live LF0 scorecard: The Scorecard | Research Performance dashboard
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell securities. Returns use LF0’s daily-close scorecard methodology.
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