This is a Scorecard review, revisiting a past LF0 research call against what actually happened.
Ticker: SMR Rating: Strong Sell Published: 2026-07-23 Checkpoint: 2026-09-23 Entry price: $8.81 Latest price: $8.79 as of 2026-09-21 Stock return since entry: -0.2% Signal return: +0.3% Verdict: Correct so far
This is the 2-month checkpoint for this call. LF0 publishes monthly Scorecard updates through month 6, using the closest available daily close on or before the checkpoint date.
Read the original LF0 analysis
What I Said
I argued that SMR was a Strong Sell because the company was still burning cash at a level its current revenue base could not support, while the stock already reflected a very ambitious commercialization outcome. I also pointed to the 110.5x EV/Revenue multiple, the -$751.5M TTM operating cash flow, and the risk that funding needs, dilution, and contract conversion would matter before the business became self-funding.
Peer Comparison
| Company | Return Since Entry |
|---|---|
| SMR (this call) | -0.2% |
| BWXT | -19.6% |
| LEU | -11.4% |
| NNE | +0.8% |
| OKLO | -11.8% |
Why It’s Working (Or Not)
So far, following my Strong Sell would have earned a small gain: the signal return is slightly positive, even though the raw share price is basically flat. That means my bearish thesis has not been disproven, but it also has not produced a large payoff yet, so I should not overstate the result. The peer set has been mixed to weaker overall, with several comparable names down and only a couple modestly higher, which is consistent with the idea that this corner of the market has not broadly rewarded the commercialization story. The specific concerns I highlighted — cash burn, dilution pressure, and the need for binding contract conversion — have not been invalidated by this short tracking window, but I also do not have evidence yet that the valuation has meaningfully reset.
What Could Still Prove Me Wrong
What could still prove me wrong is a clear improvement in the exact risks I flagged: if SMR converts the pipeline into binding customer contracts and shows that cash burn is moving materially lower, my bearish case would weaken. I would also reconsider if operating cash flow and losses move toward a self-funding profile instead of staying dependent on external capital. If the company avoids another financing step and demonstrates that commercialization is becoming real revenue rather than optionality, that would challenge my original call.
The July 2026 Cohort
Other directional calls published the same month:
| Ticker | Rating | Entry | Latest | Stock Return | Signal Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NLST | Sell | $2.44 | $5.10 | +109.0% | -109.0% | Incorrect so far |
| BMNR | Sell | $17.74 | $28.25 | +59.2% | -59.2% | Incorrect so far |
| RDW | Sell | $8.99 | $11.60 | +29.0% | -29.0% | Incorrect so far |
| QUBT | Sell | $7.43 | $8.96 | +20.6% | -20.6% | Incorrect so far |
| MARA | Sell | $11.67 | $13.28 | +13.8% | -13.8% | Incorrect so far |
| FTNT | Sell | $156.25 | $175.23 | +12.1% | -12.1% | Incorrect so far |
| VSAT | Sell | $69.54 | $76.38 | +9.8% | -9.8% | Incorrect so far |
| HUT | Sell | $98.33 | $103.42 | +5.2% | -5.2% | Incorrect so far |
| AMBA | Sell | $72.90 | $68.85 | -5.6% | +5.6% | Correct so far |
| TPL | Sell | $408.26 | $366.80 | -10.2% | +10.2% | Correct so far |
| RCAT | Sell | $7.83 | $6.95 | -11.2% | +11.2% | Correct so far |
| CIFR | Sell | $21.85 | $18.90 | -13.5% | +13.5% | Correct so far |
| ONTO | Sell | $319.32 | $275.98 | -13.6% | +13.6% | Correct so far |
| AMKR | Sell | $60.60 | $52.19 | -13.9% | +13.9% | Correct so far |
| TTWO | Sell | $247.62 | $209.92 | -15.2% | +15.2% | Correct so far |
| UAN | Buy | $110.58 | $129.10 | +16.7% | +16.7% | Correct so far |
| MYRG | Sell | $391.51 | $288.45 | -26.3% | +26.3% | Correct so far |
| MTZ | Sell | $380.63 | $222.90 | -41.4% | +41.4% | Correct so far |
| FLNC | Sell | $14.42 | $7.39 | -48.8% | +48.8% | Correct so far |
Live LF0 scorecard: The Scorecard | Research Performance dashboard
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell securities. Returns use LF0’s daily-close scorecard methodology.
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