This is a Scorecard review, revisiting a past LF0 research call against what actually happened.
Ticker: LHX Rating: Sell Published: 2026-08-25 Checkpoint: 2026-09-25 Entry price: $260.92 Latest price: $238.04 as of 2026-09-24 Stock return since entry: -8.8% Signal return: +8.8% Verdict: Correct so far
This is the 1-month checkpoint for this call. LF0 publishes monthly Scorecard updates through month 6, using the closest available daily close on or before the checkpoint date.
Read the original LF0 analysis
What I Said
I argued that L3Harris was already priced for durable defense earnings, so I did not see enough margin of safety to be bullish. My concern centered on the combination of rich valuation — 30.4x EV/EBITDA and 19.5x forward P/E — and leverage at 3.2x net debt/EBITDA, even though TTM operating cash flow was strong at $1.7B. I also said I would need to see EBITDA stay above $1.1B and leverage start to come down before I could turn more constructive.
Peer Comparison
| Company | Return Since Entry |
|---|---|
| LHX (this call) | -8.8% |
| BAESY | -8.9% |
| EOPSF | +10.1% |
| ESLT | +2.0% |
| HAGHY | -14.3% |
| RTX | -10.3% |
Why It’s Working (Or Not)
So far, following the Sell call has worked: the stock is down 8.8% from my entry, which means a short would be up the same amount over this review window. That move is directionally consistent with my caution around a premium multiple and limited balance-sheet flexibility. The peer set has been mixed to lower overall, with several comparable defense names also down, so LHX has not stood out as an obvious exception to the group. What I can say is that the original valuation-and-leverage concern has not been disproven yet, but I also have not seen the operating data in this review that would let me claim the thesis was tested on EBITDA or debt metrics specifically.
What Could Still Prove Me Wrong
If L3Harris reports another quarter with EBITDA above $1.1B and net debt/EBITDA moves below 3.0x, that would weaken my original concern that the current earnings base is only temporarily strong. I would also be wrong if the company keeps delivering enough cash flow to make the 30.4x EV/EBITDA and 19.5x forward P/E look justified rather than stretched. Conversely, if EBITDA slips under $1B or revenue falls back below $5.7B, that would reinforce the bearish side of my call rather than disprove it.
The August 2026 Cohort
Other directional calls published the same month:
| Ticker | Rating | Entry | Latest | Stock Return | Signal Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SDGR | Sell | $17.40 | $29.45 | +69.3% | -69.3% | Incorrect so far |
| WGS | Sell | $77.88 | $88.48 | +13.6% | -13.6% | Incorrect so far |
| AES | Sell | $14.71 | $14.85 | +1.0% | -1.0% | Incorrect so far |
| VNOM | Sell | $41.67 | $41.64 | -0.1% | +0.1% | Correct so far |
| ALT | Sell | $3.15 | $3.04 | -3.5% | +3.5% | Correct so far |
| NNDM | Sell | $1.65 | $1.58 | -4.2% | +4.2% | Correct so far |
| GTN | Sell | $4.83 | $4.57 | -5.4% | +5.4% | Correct so far |
| SPHR | Sell | $147.34 | $138.44 | -6.0% | +6.0% | Correct so far |
| BA | Sell | $210.46 | $196.80 | -6.5% | +6.5% | Correct so far |
| STXS | Sell | $1.39 | $1.29 | -7.2% | +7.2% | Correct so far |
| NUTX | Buy | $188.41 | $204.59 | +8.6% | +8.6% | Correct so far |
| ADTN | Sell | $7.76 | $6.94 | -10.6% | +10.6% | Correct so far |
| LRCX | Sell | $343.48 | $307.16 | -10.6% | +10.6% | Correct so far |
| NXE | Sell | $10.40 | $9.27 | -10.9% | +10.9% | Correct so far |
| OWLT | Sell | $5.81 | $5.07 | -12.7% | +12.7% | Correct so far |
| OI | Sell | $6.79 | $5.86 | -13.7% | +13.7% | Correct so far |
| PENN | Sell | $18.56 | $15.49 | -16.5% | +16.5% | Correct so far |
| RRGB | Sell | $9.51 | $7.56 | -20.5% | +20.5% | Correct so far |
| SRG | Strong Sell | $2.11 | $1.82 | -13.7% | +20.6% | Correct so far |
Live LF0 scorecard: The Scorecard | Research Performance dashboard
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell securities. Returns use LF0’s daily-close scorecard methodology.
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