This is a Scorecard review, revisiting a past LF0 research call against what actually happened.
Ticker: NLST Rating: Sell Published: 2026-07-25 Checkpoint: 2026-08-25 Entry price: $2.44 Latest price: $5.12 as of 2026-08-25 Stock return since entry: +109.8% Signal return: -109.8% Verdict: Incorrect so far
This is the 1-month checkpoint for this call. LF0 publishes monthly Scorecard updates through month 6, using the closest available daily close on or before the checkpoint date.
Read the original LF0 analysis
What I Said
I rated NLST a sell because I thought the market was already pricing in cleaner cash conversion than the company had actually delivered. My original case leaned on the gap between Q1 2026 revenue of $104.9M and EBITDA of $8.6M on one side, and still-negative TTM operating cash flow of -$15.5M plus a rich 5.3x EV/revenue and 48.7x EV/EBITDA on the other.
Peer Comparison
| Company | Return Since Entry |
|---|---|
| NLST (this call) | +109.8% |
| MU | +6.2% |
| SNDK | +21.5% |
| STX | -1.0% |
| WDC | -9.8% |
Why It’s Working (Or Not)
So far, that sell call has not worked: if I had followed my own short signal, I would be down 109.8% over the month. The stock has moved sharply higher while the peer group has been mixed to mostly positive, so NLST has not shown the kind of relative weakness that would have supported my bearish setup. More importantly, the specific weakness I highlighted — that revenue and EBITDA were improving faster than cash generation — has not been disproven by the price action; instead, the market has simply continued to reward the growth story despite the cash-flow gap I flagged. At this point I cannot claim the valuation argument has been validated, because the stock has expanded against my thesis rather than converging toward the cash conversion proof I wanted to see.
What Could Still Prove Me Wrong
I would still be looking for the same concrete evidence I said would change my mind: quarterly revenue staying above $100M, EBITDA remaining positive, and operating cash flow turning positive for at least two straight quarters. If NLST can show that the -$15.5M TTM operating cash flow problem is actually being fixed, then my original concern about paying up for growth that is not self-funding would be weakened. If, on the other hand, revenue slips back below $75M a quarter or cash flow stays negative, that would confirm the bear case I originally laid out.
The July 2026 Cohort
Other directional calls published the same month:
| Ticker | Rating | Entry | Latest | Stock Return | Signal Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BMNR | Sell | $17.74 | $23.06 | +30.0% | -30.0% | Incorrect so far |
| RDW | Sell | $8.99 | $10.33 | +14.9% | -14.9% | Incorrect so far |
| SMR | Strong Sell | $8.81 | $9.56 | +8.5% | -12.8% | Incorrect so far |
| RCAT | Sell | $7.83 | $8.32 | +6.3% | -6.3% | Incorrect so far |
| QUBT | Sell | $7.43 | $7.84 | +5.5% | -5.5% | Incorrect so far |
| VSAT | Sell | $69.54 | $69.92 | +0.5% | -0.5% | Incorrect so far |
| FTNT | Sell | $156.25 | $154.54 | -1.1% | +1.1% | Correct so far |
| AMBA | Sell | $72.90 | $67.14 | -7.9% | +7.9% | Correct so far |
| TPL | Sell | $408.26 | $367.32 | -10.0% | +10.0% | Correct so far |
| MARA | Sell | $11.67 | $10.47 | -10.3% | +10.3% | Correct so far |
| TTWO | Sell | $247.62 | $216.14 | -12.7% | +12.7% | Correct so far |
| HUT | Sell | $98.33 | $80.68 | -17.9% | +17.9% | Correct so far |
| ONTO | Sell | $319.32 | $254.55 | -20.3% | +20.3% | Correct so far |
| UAN | Buy | $110.58 | $133.93 | +21.1% | +21.1% | Correct so far |
| AMKR | Sell | $60.71 | $47.17 | -22.3% | +22.3% | Correct so far |
| FLNC | Sell | $14.42 | $10.56 | -26.8% | +26.8% | Correct so far |
| MYRG | Sell | $391.51 | $282.65 | -27.8% | +27.8% | Correct so far |
| CIFR | Sell | $21.85 | $15.18 | -30.5% | +30.5% | Correct so far |
| MTZ | Sell | $380.63 | $235.33 | -38.2% | +38.2% | Correct so far |
Live LF0 scorecard: The Scorecard | Research Performance dashboard
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell securities. Returns use LF0’s daily-close scorecard methodology.
Leave a Comment