This is a Scorecard review, revisiting a past LF0 research call against what actually happened.
Ticker: QUBT Rating: Sell Published: 2026-07-24 Checkpoint: 2026-08-24 Entry price: $7.43 Latest price: $8.24 as of 2026-08-24 Stock return since entry: +10.9% Signal return: -10.9% Verdict: Incorrect so far
This is the 1-month checkpoint for this call. LF0 publishes monthly Scorecard updates through month 6, using the closest available daily close on or before the checkpoint date.
Read the original LF0 analysis
What I Said
I rated QUBT a Sell because I thought its room-temperature photonics stack was still more of a strategic promise than a cash-generating business. My key concern was that Q1 2026 revenue of $3.7M had to prove it could stay above $3M per quarter, while the TTM operating margin of -556.8% and free cash flow margin of -931.3% showed the economics were still deeply unprofitable. I also flagged the Luminar acquisition and the AZ Chips Facility as things that could help, but only if they translated into repeatable demand rather than just adding more burden of proof.
Peer Comparison
| Company | Return Since Entry |
|---|---|
| QUBT (this call) | +10.9% |
| IONQ | +14.6% |
| QBTS | +1.7% |
| RGTI | +5.1% |
Why It’s Working (Or Not)
So far, the call has not worked: if I had shorted QUBT at my entry price, I would be down about 10.9% over the review window. The stock has moved higher while the peer group has also been broadly higher, so my bearish thesis has not yet shown the kind of relative weakness I was looking for. More importantly, the specific evidence I leaned on has not been validated yet in the market action I can see here: the company has not given me a clear sign that the revenue step-up is failing or that the cash burn is easing. The original concern about whether the acquisition and facility would convert into durable demand remains unproven, but at this point that is still a thesis risk rather than a confirmed win for my short.
What Could Still Prove Me Wrong
What could still prove me wrong is a continued revenue run-rate above $3M per quarter with gross margin turning positive, because that would directly challenge my view that the business is not yet self-funding. If operating cash flow improves materially from the -$35.3M TTM level, I would have to reconsider the idea that this is still just a development platform. I would also be wrong if the Luminar acquisition and AZ Chips Facility start showing up as repeatable customer demand rather than one-off revenue support.
The July 2026 Cohort
Other directional calls published the same month:
| Ticker | Rating | Entry | Latest | Stock Return | Signal Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NLST | Sell | $2.44 | $5.15 | +111.1% | -111.1% | Incorrect so far |
| BMNR | Sell | $17.74 | $23.06 | +30.0% | -30.0% | Incorrect so far |
| RDW | Sell | $8.99 | $10.33 | +14.9% | -14.9% | Incorrect so far |
| SMR | Strong Sell | $8.81 | $9.56 | +8.5% | -12.8% | Incorrect so far |
| RCAT | Sell | $7.83 | $8.32 | +6.3% | -6.3% | Incorrect so far |
| VSAT | Sell | $69.54 | $69.92 | +0.5% | -0.5% | Incorrect so far |
| FTNT | Sell | $156.25 | $154.54 | -1.1% | +1.1% | Correct so far |
| AMBA | Sell | $72.90 | $67.14 | -7.9% | +7.9% | Correct so far |
| TPL | Sell | $408.26 | $367.32 | -10.0% | +10.0% | Correct so far |
| MARA | Sell | $11.67 | $10.47 | -10.3% | +10.3% | Correct so far |
| TTWO | Sell | $247.62 | $216.14 | -12.7% | +12.7% | Correct so far |
| HUT | Sell | $98.33 | $80.68 | -17.9% | +17.9% | Correct so far |
| ONTO | Sell | $319.32 | $254.55 | -20.3% | +20.3% | Correct so far |
| UAN | Buy | $110.58 | $133.93 | +21.1% | +21.1% | Correct so far |
| AMKR | Sell | $60.71 | $47.17 | -22.3% | +22.3% | Correct so far |
| FLNC | Sell | $14.42 | $10.56 | -26.8% | +26.8% | Correct so far |
| MYRG | Sell | $391.51 | $282.65 | -27.8% | +27.8% | Correct so far |
| CIFR | Sell | $21.85 | $15.18 | -30.5% | +30.5% | Correct so far |
| MTZ | Sell | $380.63 | $235.33 | -38.2% | +38.2% | Correct so far |
Live LF0 scorecard: The Scorecard | Research Performance dashboard
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell securities. Returns use LF0’s daily-close scorecard methodology.
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