This is a Scorecard review, revisiting a past LF0 research call against what actually happened.
Ticker: BMNR Rating: Sell Published: 2026-07-22 Checkpoint: 2026-08-22 Entry price: $17.74 Latest price: $22.83 as of 2026-08-21 Stock return since entry: +28.7% Signal return: -28.7% Verdict: Incorrect so far
This is the 1-month checkpoint for this call. LF0 publishes monthly Scorecard updates through month 6, using the closest available daily close on or before the checkpoint date.
Read the original LF0 analysis
What I Said
I rated BMNR a Sell because I thought the recent revenue jump still needed to prove it could last and translate into cash. My core concern was that the market was already rewarding a better operating model than the cash flow statement justified, and I wanted to see sustained quarterly revenue above $40M, improving EBITDA, and positive free cash flow before getting less cautious.
Peer Comparison
| Company | Return Since Entry |
|---|---|
| BMNR (this call) | +28.7% |
| CLSK | -26.1% |
| MARA | -15.6% |
| MSTR | +23.2% |
| RIOT | -20.3% |
Why It’s Working (Or Not)
So far, that call has not worked: if I had shorted BMNR at my entry price, I would be down 28.7% over the review window. The stock has moved higher while several of the comparable names I cited have been flat to lower over the same stretch, so BMNR has not followed the weaker peer pattern I was implicitly leaning on. That means my specific thesis about the market re-rating the business ahead of cash-flow proof has not been validated yet. The part of my original argument that has not held up is the idea that the cash-flow gap would pressure the shares before the growth story did.
What Could Still Prove Me Wrong
I could still be proven wrong if BMNR keeps posting quarterly revenue above $40M for a second straight quarter and EBITDA moves meaningfully toward positive territory, because that would support the operating-leverage case I said was missing. I would also have to reconsider if free cash flow turns positive while the current ratio stays above 10x, since that would show the business is funding growth internally instead of relying on external capital. Until those specific conditions show up, my original caution about the cash-flow gap remains the key risk.
The July 2026 Cohort
Other directional calls published the same month:
| Ticker | Rating | Entry | Latest | Stock Return | Signal Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NLST | Sell | $2.44 | $5.15 | +111.1% | -111.1% | Incorrect so far |
| RDW | Sell | $8.99 | $10.33 | +14.9% | -14.9% | Incorrect so far |
| SMR | Strong Sell | $8.81 | $9.56 | +8.5% | -12.8% | Incorrect so far |
| RCAT | Sell | $7.83 | $8.32 | +6.3% | -6.3% | Incorrect so far |
| QUBT | Sell | $7.43 | $7.84 | +5.5% | -5.5% | Incorrect so far |
| VSAT | Sell | $69.54 | $69.92 | +0.5% | -0.5% | Incorrect so far |
| FTNT | Sell | $156.25 | $154.54 | -1.1% | +1.1% | Correct so far |
| AMBA | Sell | $72.90 | $67.14 | -7.9% | +7.9% | Correct so far |
| TPL | Sell | $408.26 | $367.32 | -10.0% | +10.0% | Correct so far |
| MARA | Sell | $11.67 | $10.47 | -10.3% | +10.3% | Correct so far |
| TTWO | Sell | $247.62 | $216.14 | -12.7% | +12.7% | Correct so far |
| HUT | Sell | $98.33 | $80.68 | -17.9% | +17.9% | Correct so far |
| ONTO | Sell | $319.32 | $254.55 | -20.3% | +20.3% | Correct so far |
| UAN | Buy | $110.58 | $133.93 | +21.1% | +21.1% | Correct so far |
| AMKR | Sell | $60.71 | $47.17 | -22.3% | +22.3% | Correct so far |
| FLNC | Sell | $14.42 | $10.56 | -26.8% | +26.8% | Correct so far |
| MYRG | Sell | $391.51 | $282.65 | -27.8% | +27.8% | Correct so far |
| CIFR | Sell | $21.85 | $15.18 | -30.5% | +30.5% | Correct so far |
| MTZ | Sell | $380.63 | $235.33 | -38.2% | +38.2% | Correct so far |
Live LF0 scorecard: The Scorecard | Research Performance dashboard
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell securities. Returns use LF0’s daily-close scorecard methodology.
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