This is a Scorecard review, revisiting a past LF0 research call against what actually happened.
Ticker: CAR Rating: Sell Published: 2026-06-21 Checkpoint: 2026-07-21 Entry price: $186.28 Latest price: $162.24 as of 2026-07-21 Stock return since entry: -12.9% Signal return: +12.9% Verdict: Correct so far
This is the 1-month checkpoint for this call. LF0 publishes monthly Scorecard updates through month 6, using the closest available daily close on or before the checkpoint date.
Read the original LF0 analysis
What I Said
I rated CAR a Sell because I thought the recovery story still depended on execution that had not been proven in the numbers. My focus was on the balance sheet and cash generation: about $27.7B of debt, only $168M of levered free cash flow, and the risk that one refinancing or residual-value miss could put the equity back under pressure.
Peer Comparison
| Company | Return Since Entry |
|---|---|
| CAR (this call) | -12.9% |
| HTZ | -59.3% |
| LYFT | +21.1% |
| R | -7.6% |
| UBER | +6.2% |
| UHAL | +9.4% |
Why It’s Working (Or Not)
So far, that bearish call has worked: if I had shorted CAR at my entry price, I would be up about 12.9% after one month. The stock has moved lower while the peer set has been mixed, with several comparables higher over the same stretch, so CAR has not simply followed the group. That supports my original concern that the market was still giving too much credit to a recovery that had not yet been fully demonstrated. What has been validated most clearly is the idea that the equity remained vulnerable to the leverage and cash-flow setup I highlighted, rather than to a broad improvement in the rental peer complex.
What Could Still Prove Me Wrong
If CAR can keep quarterly EBITDA above $700M and push levered free cash flow materially above the $500M TTM level I cited, that would weaken my original thesis. I would also have to reconsider if operating cash flow stays comfortably above $2,500M TTM and the current ratio moves back above 1.0x, because that would show the refinancing and liquidity risks are easing rather than building. Until those numbers improve together, the burden of proof stays on the company.
The June 2026 Cohort
Other directional calls published the same month:
| Ticker | Rating | Entry | Latest | Stock Return | Signal Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SKYH | Sell | $9.37 | $10.50 | +12.1% | -12.1% | Incorrect so far |
| SOUN | Sell | $7.33 | $7.24 | -1.2% | +1.2% | Correct so far |
| BSX | Buy | $46.76 | $48.75 | +4.3% | +4.3% | Correct so far |
| AEHR | Sell | $115.30 | $80.14 | -30.5% | +30.5% | Correct so far |
| BW | Sell | $17.76 | $7.28 | -59.0% | +59.0% | Correct so far |
Live LF0 scorecard: The Scorecard | Research Performance dashboard
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell securities. Returns use LF0’s daily-close scorecard methodology.
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