This is a Scorecard review, revisiting a past LF0 research call against what actually happened.
Ticker: OI Rating: Sell Published: 2026-08-14 Checkpoint: 2026-11-14 Entry price: $6.79 Latest price: $4.96 as of 2026-11-13 Stock return since entry: -27.0% Signal return: +27.0% Verdict: Correct so far
This is the 3-month checkpoint for this call. LF0 publishes monthly Scorecard updates through month 6, using the closest available daily close on or before the checkpoint date.
Previous checkpoint: our 2-month review (2026-10-14) was correct (stock return -15.3% since entry). Each monthly review is judged on its own date, so the verdict can change from one month to the next.
Read the original LF0 analysis
What I Said
I rated OI a sell because I thought the balance sheet was too stretched for the earnings profile: net debt/EBITDA was 5.1x, earnings were still deeply negative, and the stock was already pricing in a recovery that had not shown up cleanly in the numbers. I also pointed to Fit to Win as the key execution risk, with my view that I would only get more constructive if leverage fell below 4.5x and the operating reset became more visible.
Peer Comparison
| Company | Return Since Entry |
|---|---|
| OI (this call) | -27.0% |
| BALL | +6.2% |
| CCK | +2.4% |
| GEF | -18.2% |
| GPK | -3.5% |
| SLGN | -3.2% |
How Other Analysts Rate It
Every Wall Street rating action logged on Yahoo Finance since our Sell on 2026-08-14, one row per action (a firm that updates three times appears three times). LF0 rows are in bold.
| Date | Firm | Rating | Action | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-14 | LF0 Equity Research | Sell | Original call at $6.79 | |
| 2026-08-21 | Citigroup | Buy | Neutral to Buy (upgrade) | $9.00 (from $8.00) |
| 2026-09-14 | LF0 Equity Research | Sell | 1-month update | |
| 2026-10-05 | UBS | Neutral | Buy to Neutral (downgrade) | $6.00 (from $11.00) |
| 2026-10-12 | Truist Securities | Buy | Reiterated | $8.00 (from $10.00) |
| 2026-10-13 | RBC Capital | Sector Perform | Reiterated | $7.00 (from $8.00) |
| 2026-10-14 | LF0 Equity Research | Sell | 2-month update | |
| 2026-10-19 | Wells Fargo | Overweight | Reiterated | $10.00 (from $12.00) |
| 2026-10-29 | Citigroup | Buy | Reiterated | $8.00 (from $9.00) |
| 2026-10-29 | Truist Securities | Buy | Reiterated | $7.00 (from $8.00) |
| 2026-11-14 | LF0 Equity Research | Sell | 3-month update (this report) |
Since our Sell on 2026-08-14, 2 rating changes were logged by Yahoo Finance: 1 moved toward our view (UBS (Buy to Neutral, 2026-10-05)) and 1 moved away from it (Citigroup (Neutral to Buy, 2026-08-21)). Analyst moves since our call are mixed.
3 firms still Buy-rated against our call at their latest action: Citigroup, Truist Securities and Wells Fargo.
A Hold is not always neutral. These firms moved to Hold from the opposite side of our call, a bearish shift: UBS (Buy to Neutral, 2026-10-05).
Counting each firm’s latest action in this window: 3 bullish, 2 neutral, 0 bearish out of 5 firms.
Source: Yahoo Finance analyst rating actions. Dates are when Yahoo logged the action. Analyst ratings are third-party opinions, not LF0 views or recommendations.
Why It’s Working (Or Not)
Over this tracking window, following my sell call would have earned 26.95%, which means the short side has worked. The stock has fallen while several peers in the packaging group have been mixed to higher, so OI has clearly diverged from much of the peer set rather than moving in lockstep with it. That supports my original concern that the market was giving too much credit to a recovery that still needed to show up in earnings and deleveraging. The specific leverage warning also still matters: the call was built around 5.1x net debt/EBITDA, and the price action has not challenged that caution.
What Could Still Prove Me Wrong
I would start to rethink the call if OI shows a sustained improvement in leverage toward my 4.5x threshold and the Fit to Win program translates into visibly better operating results. A move back toward a cleaner margin reset, rather than just cost reshuffling, would weaken the core of my thesis. If the company can pair that with steadier demand and a clearer deleveraging path, the sell case would lose force.
The August 2026 Cohort
Other directional calls published the same month:
| Ticker | Rating | Entry | Latest | Stock Return | Signal Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SDGR | Sell | $17.40 | $29.53 | +69.7% | -69.7% | Incorrect so far |
| GTN | Sell | $4.83 | $5.99 | +24.0% | -24.0% | Incorrect so far |
| NUTX | Buy | $188.41 | $173.67 | -7.8% | -7.8% | Incorrect so far |
| LHX | Sell | $260.92 | $272.35 | +4.4% | -4.4% | Incorrect so far |
| VNOM | Sell | $41.16 | $42.34 | +2.9% | -2.9% | Incorrect so far |
| AES | Sell | $14.54 | $14.91 | +2.6% | -2.6% | Incorrect so far |
| PENN | Sell | $18.56 | $17.50 | -5.7% | +5.7% | Correct so far |
| RRGB | Sell | $9.51 | $8.81 | -7.4% | +7.4% | Correct so far |
| SPHR | Sell | $147.34 | $125.56 | -14.8% | +14.8% | Correct so far |
| BA | Sell | $210.46 | $171.50 | -18.5% | +18.5% | Correct so far |
| NNDM | Sell | $1.65 | $1.24 | -24.8% | +24.8% | Correct so far |
| NXE | Sell | $10.40 | $7.76 | -25.4% | +25.4% | Correct so far |
| WGS | Sell | $77.88 | $52.37 | -32.8% | +32.8% | Correct so far |
| LRCX | Sell | $343.48 | $225.92 | -34.2% | +34.2% | Correct so far |
| ADTN | Sell | $7.76 | $4.83 | -37.8% | +37.8% | Correct so far |
| STXS | Sell | $1.39 | $0.84 | -39.6% | +39.6% | Correct so far |
| OWLT | Sell | $5.81 | $3.44 | -40.8% | +40.8% | Correct so far |
| SRG | Strong Sell | $2.11 | $1.52 | -28.0% | +41.9% | Correct so far |
Sector Scorecard: Consumer Cyclical
How are our Consumer Cyclical calls doing overall, and where does OI sit among them?
| Peer call | Rating | Published | Signal return |
|---|---|---|---|
| RRGB | Sell | 2026-08-19 | +7.4% |
| PENN | Sell | 2026-08-19 | +5.7% |
| FLUT | Strong Sell | 2026-11-04 | +1.2% |
We saw Technology lead the league table with a 92% hit rate and a +27.9% average signal return, followed by Industrials at 81% and +21.4%. Consumer Cyclical was positive with a 100% hit rate and a +10.3% average signal return across 4 calls, while thin sectors were not ranked and should be treated cautiously, including Utilities at 3 calls with a 33% hit rate and +17.2%. The weakest non-thin sector by hit rate was Healthcare at 58% and +6.3%, and the best call was Technology’s CIFR at +68.6% while the worst was Technology’s NLST at -107.0%.
Sector League Table
| Sector | Calls | Hit rate | Avg signal return | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Technology | 25 | 92% | +27.9% | CIFR +68.6% | NLST -107.0% |
| Industrials | 16 | 81% | +21.4% | BW +74.3% | LUNR -35.4% |
| Financial Services | 5 | 100% | +18.9% | HUT +41.5% | BMNR +0.9% |
| Utilities | 3 | 33% | +17.2% | FLNC +67.5% | TLN -13.3% |
| Basic Materials | 5 | 80% | +14.1% | LAR +45.1% | MP -5.2% |
| Consumer Cyclical | 4 | 100% | +10.3% | OI +27.0% | FLUT +1.2% |
| Energy | 6 | 67% | +9.4% | BORR +23.0% | SM -18.9% |
| Healthcare | 12 | 58% | +6.3% | OWLT +40.8% | SDGR -69.7% |
| Communication Services | 5 | 60% | +4.1% | LUMN +39.7% | GTN -24.0% |
| Real Estate* | 2 | 50% | +10.6% | SRG +41.9% | SKYH -20.7% |
| Consumer Defensive* | 1 | 0% | -1.6% | PG -1.6% | PG -1.6% |
| Unclassified* | 2 | 50% | -7.6% | NXE +25.4% | FISV -40.5% |
\* Fewer than 3 calls: not ranked.
Sector by Publish Month
| Sector | Jun 2026 | Jul 2026 | Aug 2026 | Sep 2026 | Oct 2026 | Nov 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Technology | +51.5% (2) | +12.1% (7) | +32.3% (3) | +30.2% (6) | +33.1% (7) | — |
| Industrials | +74.3% (1) | +43.7% (5) | +7.1% (2) | +8.8% (3) | +4.3% (3) | -1.8% (2) |
| Healthcare | -5.1% (1) | — | +7.1% (5) | +40.2% (1) | -2.9% (3) | +6.8% (2) |
| Energy | — | +19.1% (1) | -2.9% (1) | +23.0% (1) | +5.8% (3) | — |
| Financial Services | — | +27.5% (3) | — | — | +8.4% (1) | +3.8% (1) |
| Communication Services | — | +8.0% (1) | -4.6% (2) | -17.7% (1) | +39.7% (1) | — |
| Basic Materials | — | +1.8% (1) | — | +45.1% (1) | +14.4% (2) | -5.2% (1) |
| Consumer Cyclical | — | — | +13.3% (3) | — | — | +1.2% (1) |
| Utilities | — | +67.5% (1) | -2.6% (1) | — | -13.3% (1) | — |
| Real Estate | -20.7% (1) | — | +41.9% (1) | — | — | — |
| Unclassified | — | — | +25.4% (1) | — | -40.5% (1) | — |
| Consumer Defensive | — | — | — | — | — | -1.6% (1) |
Each cell: average signal return to date of the calls published that month (calls in brackets). Signal return is direction-adjusted, so a positive number means our call is right.
Live LF0 scorecard: The Scorecard | Research Performance dashboard
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell securities. Returns use LF0’s daily-close scorecard methodology.
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