This is a Scorecard review, revisiting a past LF0 research call against what actually happened.
Ticker: OI Rating: Sell Published: 2026-08-14 Checkpoint: 2026-09-14 Entry price: $6.79 Latest price: $6.53 as of 2026-09-14 Stock return since entry: -3.8% Signal return: +3.8% Verdict: Correct so far
This is the 1-month checkpoint for this call. LF0 publishes monthly Scorecard updates through month 6, using the closest available daily close on or before the checkpoint date.
Read the original LF0 analysis
What I Said
I rated OI a sell because I thought the balance sheet was still too stretched for the earnings profile: net debt/EBITDA was 5.1x, earnings were still deeply negative, and the company was relying on Fit to Win to do a lot of the heavy lifting. I also pointed out that the stock already looked cheap on EV/EBITDA and EV/revenue, so my case was not valuation alone but that the operating reset had not yet shown up clearly enough to justify the leverage.
I said I would only get more constructive if leverage fell below 4.5x, or if Fit to Win delivered enough cumulative benefit and margin improvement to show the cost base was truly resetting.
Peer Comparison
| Company | Return Since Entry |
|---|---|
| OI (this call) | -3.8% |
| BALL | -1.7% |
| CCK | -5.4% |
| GEF | -5.6% |
| GPK | -15.2% |
| SLGN | -7.8% |
Why It’s Working (Or Not)
So far, following my sell call would have earned 3.8%, which means the short side has worked in the direction I expected. OI has moved lower while the peer group has also been mostly down, so the stock has not been an isolated outlier, but it has still drifted in the bearish direction I was looking for. The specific concern I raised about leverage and weak earnings has not been disproven yet; I have not seen evidence in this review window that net debt/EBITDA has fallen below my 4.5x threshold or that the operating reset has clearly changed the story. That said, the move is modest, so I would not call this a decisive validation of the thesis yet.
What Could Still Prove Me Wrong
I would be wrong if OI starts showing the kind of deleveraging I said I needed to see, especially if net debt/EBITDA moves below 4.5x without a deterioration in cash generation. I would also have to reconsider if Fit to Win begins translating into visibly better margins and earnings, rather than just restructuring activity, because my original concern was that the cost reset had not shown up cleanly in the numbers. If demand softens further and leverage does not improve, that would support my thesis rather than break it.
The August 2026 Cohort
Other directional calls published the same month:
| Ticker | Rating | Entry | Latest | Stock Return | Signal Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SDGR | Sell | $17.40 | $19.07 | +9.6% | -9.6% | Incorrect so far |
| VNOM | Sell | $41.67 | $45.45 | +9.1% | -9.1% | Incorrect so far |
| WGS | Sell | $77.88 | $83.88 | +7.7% | -7.7% | Incorrect so far |
| ALT | Sell | $3.15 | $3.32 | +5.2% | -5.2% | Incorrect so far |
| GTN | Sell | $4.91 | $4.95 | +0.8% | -0.8% | Incorrect so far |
| AES | Sell | $14.71 | $14.82 | +0.7% | -0.7% | Incorrect so far |
| BA | Sell | $210.46 | $209.24 | -0.6% | +0.6% | Correct so far |
| SPHR | Sell | $147.34 | $143.54 | -2.6% | +2.6% | Correct so far |
| STXS | Sell | $1.39 | $1.34 | -4.0% | +4.0% | Correct so far |
| PENN | Sell | $18.56 | $17.80 | -4.1% | +4.1% | Correct so far |
| LHX | Sell | $260.92 | $249.68 | -4.3% | +4.3% | Correct so far |
| NNDM | Sell | $1.65 | $1.54 | -6.7% | +6.7% | Correct so far |
| ADTN | Sell | $7.76 | $7.21 | -7.1% | +7.1% | Correct so far |
| NUTX | Buy | $188.41 | $206.69 | +9.7% | +9.7% | Correct so far |
| NXE | Sell | $10.40 | $9.36 | -10.0% | +10.0% | Correct so far |
| SRG | Strong Sell | $2.11 | $1.89 | -10.4% | +15.6% | Correct so far |
| RRGB | Sell | $9.51 | $7.75 | -18.5% | +18.5% | Correct so far |
| LRCX | Sell | $343.84 | $279.41 | -18.7% | +18.7% | Correct so far |
| OWLT | Sell | $5.81 | $4.67 | -19.6% | +19.6% | Correct so far |
Live LF0 scorecard: The Scorecard | Research Performance dashboard
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell securities. Returns use LF0’s daily-close scorecard methodology.
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