Executive Summary
Across 201 articles, our hit rate is 85.9% and our average signal return is 17.2%, so the overall record is still strong this run. Among the tiers with meaningful sample sizes, Sell is performing best on both accuracy and average signal return, while Buy is the weakest; Hold is roughly flat on average and should be read as a mixed, not decisive, bucket.
This is one in a recurring series that reviews LF0 Research’s own past ratings against what actually happened to the stock. The goal is an honest scorecard, not a highlight reel — full methodology and every call we’ve ever made is at /research-performance/.
If You’d Followed Every Pick
Beyond individual calls, here’s the model portfolio question: what if you’d put $1 into every Buy/Strong Buy pick the day we published it, and a separate $1 short into every Sell/Strong Sell pick? We’ve rated stocks at very different times — some calls go back to June 2026, others were made last week — so each pick’s $1 only joins its book on its own publish date. The return below is pooled value versus total capital actually deployed at each point in time, not a return measured from one shared start date.
- Long book: +0.5% on 5 pick(s), $1 each. $5.00 deployed is worth $5.03 today.
- Short book: +17.4% on 66 pick(s), $1 each. $66.00 deployed is worth $77.47 today.
- Combined, long + short (i.e. every pick since we started): +16.2% on 71 pick(s), $1 each. $71.00 deployed is worth $82.49 today.
For comparison, here’s what the same $71.00 would have returned in a lump-sum buy-and-hold of the broad market since our first tracked pick (2026-06-09). This isn’t an identical methodology, since our capital went in gradually rather than all at once, but it’s the closest honest same-period reference point:
- S&P 500 (SPY): +4.2%. $71.00 would be worth $73.97 today.
- Nasdaq-100 (QQQ): -0.3%. $71.00 would be worth $70.81 today.
This Week’s Calls
BW — Sell (Notable mover — best active signal return)
What happened: We entered at $17.76 and the latest price is $4.22, for a stock return of -76.2%. That translated into a +76.2% signal return for the Sell call.
Why: Our core concern was that the valuation was already pricing in a recovery that had not yet shown up in cash generation, and that held up. The stock’s collapse is consistent with the original warning that the turnaround story was ahead of the operating results.
CIFR — Sell (Notable mover — best active signal return)
What happened: We entered at $21.85 and the latest price is $8.32, for a stock return of -61.9%. That produced a +61.9% signal return on the Sell rating.
Why: Our thesis centered on the stock pricing in a successful ramp before the revenue, cash flow, and leverage profile had earned it, and that caution has been rewarded so far. The move lower supports our view that the market had gotten ahead of the business transition.
FLNC — Sell (Notable mover — best active signal return)
What we said: We said FLNC had a large storage opportunity, but the call depended on backlog quality, margin execution, liquidity, and whether short interest was correctly pricing operational risk. We highlighted that the business still needed to prove its software and installed-base advantage could turn into durable cash generation.
What happened: We entered at $14.42 and the latest price is $5.70, for a stock return of -60.5%. That means the Sell call has a +60.5% signal return so far.
Why: The original concern about negative EBITDA and heavy free cash flow burn held up, and the stock’s decline reflects that the market did not need to pay up for the growth story. The thesis was about cash conversion, and the price action has so far validated that skepticism.
NLST — Sell (Notable mover — worst active signal return)
What we said: – Rated sell because the stock prices in cleaner cash conversion than Netlist has delivered.
- Strongest point: Q1 2026 revenue reached $104.9M, with EBITDA turning positive at $8.6M.
- Biggest risk: operating cash flow was -$15.5M TTM, so earnings are not yet self-funding.
- Valuation is rich at 5.3x EV/revenue and 48.7x EV/EBITDA.
- I would raise my rating if quarterly revenue stays above $100M and operating cash flow turns positive.
What happened: We entered at $2.44 and the latest price is $5.81, for a stock return of +138.1%. That produced a -138.1% signal return, so the Sell call has been wrong so far.
Why: The part of the thesis that did not hold up was our expectation that the market would lose patience before the cash conversion improved enough to support the valuation. Revenue strength and positive EBITDA were enough to keep the stock moving higher, even though operating cash flow was still negative.
SDGR — Sell (Notable mover — worst active signal return)
What we said: – Rated sell — valuation still prices in growth that cash flow has not earned.
- Strongest point: the platform’s gross margin is 56.9% TTM.
- Biggest risk: operating cash flow is -$126.9M TTM.
- Valuation is rich at 3.9x EV/Revenue and 5.1x P/S.
- I would only improve the rating if free cash flow turns positive and revenue growth re-accelerates.
What happened: We entered at $17.40 and the latest price is $22.60, for a stock return of +29.9%. That means the Sell call has a -29.9% signal return so far.
Why: Our valuation argument has not been rewarded yet, because the market has been willing to pay up despite the negative cash flow profile. The original thesis was right that cash generation had not caught up, but the stock has still rerated against us.
BMNR — Sell (Notable mover — worst active signal return)
What happened: We entered at $17.74 and the latest price is $22.50, for a stock return of +26.8%. That leaves the Sell call with a -26.8% signal return so far.
Why: We were focused on whether the revenue jump could survive and convert into cash, but the stock has moved higher before that test was resolved. The call has not worked so far because the market has continued to reward the growth narrative ahead of the cash flow proof.
How Each Rating Did
Buy — 5 call(s)
Buy is only 40.0% accurate across 5 calls, so we should treat that bucket cautiously rather than as a dependable edge. UAN helped the most, while CAR hurt the most, which is a reminder that this tier has been uneven this run.
Hold — 129 call(s)
Hold has been close to flat on average across 129 calls, with CPRT the steadiest name and TEAM the one that moved the most. That is consistent with Hold doing what it is supposed to do: avoid big directional bets, even if it does not always add much return.
Sell — 57 call(s)
Sell is the strongest tier this run on both accuracy and average signal return, with BW helping the most and NLST hurting the most. With 57 calls, this is a meaningful sample, and the tier has generally done a good job of catching names where the market was ahead of the fundamentals.
Strong Sell — 10 call(s)
Strong Sell is 100.0% accurate across 10 calls, but we should still remember that this is a smaller sample than Sell or Hold. SMR was the biggest winner for the tier, while STRC was the least helpful, and the bucket has still performed well overall.
Sector Tilt
How the calls we’re actively tracking are distributed across sectors:
| Sector | Long | Short | Hold | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Technology | 0 | 24 | 24 | 48 |
| Industrials | 1 | 13 | 23 | 37 |
| Healthcare | 2 | 5 | 12 | 19 |
| Consumer Cyclical | 0 | 3 | 13 | 16 |
| Basic Materials | 2 | 2 | 11 | 15 |
| Energy | 0 | 4 | 10 | 14 |
| Financial Services | 0 | 4 | 9 | 13 |
| Communication Services | 0 | 5 | 6 | 11 |
| Consumer Defensive | 0 | 0 | 9 | 9 |
| Utilities | 0 | 3 | 5 | 8 |
| Real Estate | 0 | 2 | 4 | 6 |
| Unclassified | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
Cumulative Signal Return
Lessons This Week
This week’s spotlight reinforces a familiar split: our cash-flow-based Sell calls worked best when the market eventually repriced the gap between story and self-funding economics, but they were vulnerable when revenue momentum or narrative strength kept carrying the stock before that gap closed. The main lesson is to keep anchoring on whether the original thesis was about valuation versus cash conversion, because the market can reward either side for a while, but it usually resolves the mismatch eventually.
Conclusion
Putting it all together: a $1 long book of every Buy/Strong Buy pick is at $1.01 (+0.5%) across 5 picks; and a $1 short book of every Sell/Strong Sell pick is at $1.17 (+17.4%) across 66 picks.
So far, the short book has outpaced the long book.
This is a running scorecard, not a finished one — both books will keep changing as more picks join and more tracking windows close. We’ll keep restating this comparison every week.
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell securities. Ratings are tracked for 182 days from publication, then frozen as a permanent record.
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