This is a Scorecard review, revisiting a past LF0 research call against what actually happened.
Ticker: PL Rating: Sell Published: 2026-09-18 Checkpoint: 2026-10-18 Entry price: $16.42 Latest price: $13.56 as of 2026-10-16 Stock return since entry: -17.4% Signal return: +17.4% Verdict: Correct so far
This is the 1-month checkpoint for this call. LF0 publishes monthly Scorecard updates through month 6, using the closest available daily close on or before the checkpoint date.
Read the original LF0 analysis
What I Said
I argued that Planet’s growth was real, but that the stock was already pricing in a margin inflection at about 15.4x EV/revenue. I also pointed to the balance-sheet risk, especially 7.6x net debt/EBITDA and the possibility of dilution, while saying I would get more constructive only if quarterly revenue stayed above 110M and operating margin turned positive.
Peer Comparison
| Company | Return Since Entry |
|---|---|
| PL (this call) | -17.4% |
| AVAV | -23.9% |
| LUNR | -22.6% |
| MDA | -6.2% |
| RDW | -21.9% |
| RKLB | -21.3% |
Why It’s Working (Or Not)
This Sell call has worked over the tracking window: if I had shorted PL at my entry price, I would be up 17.4% to date. The stock has moved lower while the peer group has also been weak overall, but PL’s decline still supports my original view that the valuation was vulnerable once the market stopped rewarding the margin-inflection story. The specific concern I raised about paying a rich multiple for improvement that had not yet been proven has held up better than the bullish case. The leverage and dilution risks remain part of the original bear case, but the price action alone already shows that the market has not been willing to keep paying up for that 15.4x EV/revenue setup.
What Could Still Prove Me Wrong
I would be wrong if PL can keep quarterly revenue above 110M and show that operating margin has turned positive in a durable way, because that would validate the inflection I said the market was already pricing in. I would also reassess if the company can sustain that growth without leverage drifting higher or dilution becoming a more visible overhang. If the next few quarters show the business converting scale into earnings rather than just one strong print, the bearish valuation argument would weaken materially.
The September 2026 Cohort
Other directional calls published the same month:
| Ticker | Rating | Entry | Latest | Stock Return | Signal Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | Buy | $117.26 | $102.83 | -12.3% | -12.3% | Incorrect so far |
| BORR | Sell | $4.44 | $4.54 | +2.3% | -2.3% | Incorrect so far |
| ATI | Sell | $189.65 | $185.59 | -2.1% | +2.1% | Correct so far |
| ASX | Sell | $41.63 | $39.53 | -5.0% | +5.0% | Correct so far |
| CHTR | Sell | $117.55 | $110.11 | -6.3% | +6.3% | Correct so far |
| ALAB | Sell | $351.31 | $285.82 | -18.6% | +18.6% | Correct so far |
| RXT | Sell | $3.49 | $2.83 | -19.1% | +19.1% | Correct so far |
| SIMO | Sell | $269.00 | $211.30 | -21.4% | +21.4% | Correct so far |
| DOCN | Sell | $136.29 | $98.69 | -27.6% | +27.6% | Correct so far |
| ICHR | Sell | $59.42 | $42.11 | -29.1% | +29.1% | Correct so far |
| LAR | Sell | $6.70 | $4.63 | -30.9% | +30.9% | Correct so far |
| CUE | Sell | $26.96 | $16.71 | -38.0% | +38.0% | Correct so far |
Sector Scorecard: Industrials
How are our Industrials calls doing overall, and where does PL sit among them?
| Peer call | Rating | Published | Signal return |
|---|---|---|---|
| BW | Sell | 2026-06-19 | +74.0% |
| SMR | Strong Sell | 2026-07-23 | +50.7% |
| MTZ | Sell | 2026-07-05 | +49.8% |
| RCAT | Sell | 2026-07-22 | +39.7% |
| MYRG | Sell | 2026-07-17 | +28.4% |
| JOBY | Sell | 2026-10-04 | +19.4% |
| FIX | Sell | 2026-10-07 | +17.4% |
| BA | Sell | 2026-08-24 | +9.6% |
Across the league table, Industrials led our books with 13 calls, a 92% hit rate, and a +23.7% average signal return, with BW +74.0% as the best call and CAR -12.3% as the worst. Communication Services was next at 100% hit rate and +17.4%, while Technology also posted a 92% hit rate and +15.7% on 24 calls; thin sectors such as Utilities and Basic Materials had only 3 calls each, so we note the samples are small even though both showed positive average returns. At the lower end, Energy lagged with a 50% hit rate and +2.5%, and Healthcare was mixed at 57% with +11.0%, while the worst call in the set was NLST at -135.2% in Technology.
Sector League Table
| Sector | Calls | Hit rate | Avg signal return | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industrials | 13 | 92% | +23.7% | BW +74.0% | CAR -12.3% |
| Communication Services | 5 | 100% | +17.4% | SPHR +29.7% | CHTR +6.3% |
| Utilities | 3 | 33% | +17.1% | FLNC +59.8% | TLN -6.9% |
| Basic Materials | 3 | 100% | +16.8% | LAR +30.9% | GFI +5.4% |
| Financial Services | 4 | 75% | +15.9% | MARA +35.5% | BMNR -22.1% |
| Technology | 24 | 92% | +15.7% | CIFR +58.9% | NLST -135.2% |
| Consumer Cyclical | 3 | 100% | +13.7% | PENN +19.5% | RRGB +7.4% |
| Healthcare | 7 | 57% | +11.0% | CUE +38.0% | SDGR -29.9% |
| Energy | 4 | 50% | +2.5% | TPL +14.0% | VNOM -8.0% |
| Real Estate* | 2 | 100% | +18.9% | SRG +34.8% | SKYH +2.9% |
| Unclassified* | 2 | 50% | +7.4% | NXE +19.5% | FISV -4.8% |
\* Fewer than 3 calls: not ranked.
Sector by Publish Month
| Sector | Jun 2026 | Jul 2026 | Aug 2026 | Sep 2026 | Oct 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Technology | +41.5% (2) | +1.0% (7) | +18.8% (3) | +20.2% (6) | +18.3% (6) |
| Industrials | +74.0% (1) | +35.1% (5) | +7.2% (2) | +2.4% (3) | +18.4% (2) |
| Healthcare | -5.1% (1) | — | +8.8% (5) | +38.0% (1) | — |
| Communication Services | — | +17.1% (1) | +19.5% (2) | +6.3% (1) | +24.6% (1) |
| Energy | — | +14.0% (1) | -8.0% (1) | -2.3% (1) | +6.4% (1) |
| Financial Services | — | +14.8% (3) | — | — | +19.0% (1) |
| Basic Materials | — | +14.3% (1) | — | +30.9% (1) | +5.4% (1) |
| Utilities | — | +59.8% (1) | -1.6% (1) | — | -6.9% (1) |
| Consumer Cyclical | — | — | +13.7% (3) | — | — |
| Unclassified | — | — | +19.5% (1) | — | -4.8% (1) |
| Real Estate | +2.9% (1) | — | +34.8% (1) | — | — |
Each cell: average signal return to date of the calls published that month (calls in brackets). Signal return is direction-adjusted, so a positive number means our call is right.
Live LF0 scorecard: The Scorecard | Research Performance dashboard
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell securities. Returns use LF0’s daily-close scorecard methodology.
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