This is a Scorecard review, revisiting a past LF0 research call against what actually happened.
Ticker: SDGR Rating: Sell Published: 2026-08-17 Checkpoint: 2026-10-17 Entry price: $17.40 Latest price: $22.60 as of 2026-10-16 Stock return since entry: +29.9% Signal return: -29.9% Verdict: Incorrect so far
This is the 2-month checkpoint for this call. LF0 publishes monthly Scorecard updates through month 6, using the closest available daily close on or before the checkpoint date.
Read the original LF0 analysis
What I Said
I argued that SDGR was still priced for growth that its cash generation had not earned, even though the platform itself looked solid. My sell case leaned on the gap between a healthy 56.9% gross margin and the much weaker cash profile, especially operating cash flow of -$126.9M TTM and a valuation of 3.9x EV/Revenue and 5.1x P/S. I also said I would only get more constructive if free cash flow turned positive and revenue growth re-accelerated.
Peer Comparison
| Company | Return Since Entry |
|---|---|
| SDGR (this call) | +29.9% |
| ABCL | +5.4% |
| CERT | +17.1% |
| CRL | +4.7% |
| RXRX | +11.4% |
| SLP | +0.0% |
Why It’s Working (Or Not)
Over this tracking window, following my sell call would have lost money: the stock is up 29.9%, which means a short position would be down by the same amount. That is a clear miss on the valuation call, because the market has continued to reward the name despite the cash burn I highlighted. The peer set was mixed to higher as well, so SDGR did not stand out as the weak link I was looking for. The specific improvement I wanted to see — positive free cash flow and re-accelerating growth — has not been validated by the price action, and the current move says my timing on the sell was wrong.
What Could Still Prove Me Wrong
If SDGR keeps advancing while peers remain mixed, that would further weaken my view that the valuation was detached from fundamentals. More importantly, if the company starts showing sustained positive free cash flow and the revenue growth trend improves, that would directly undercut the core reason I rated it a sell. Until then, the call remains incorrect on the evidence available in this window.
The August 2026 Cohort
Other directional calls published the same month:
| Ticker | Rating | Entry | Latest | Stock Return | Signal Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VNOM | Sell | $41.67 | $45.02 | +8.0% | -8.0% | Incorrect so far |
| AES | Sell | $14.71 | $14.95 | +1.6% | -1.6% | Incorrect so far |
| NUTX | Buy | $188.41 | $186.10 | -1.2% | -1.2% | Incorrect so far |
| LHX | Sell | $260.92 | $248.51 | -4.8% | +4.8% | Correct so far |
| RRGB | Sell | $9.51 | $8.81 | -7.4% | +7.4% | Correct so far |
| GTN | Sell | $4.83 | $4.38 | -9.3% | +9.3% | Correct so far |
| BA | Sell | $210.46 | $190.21 | -9.6% | +9.6% | Correct so far |
| OI | Sell | $6.79 | $5.83 | -14.1% | +14.1% | Correct so far |
| NNDM | Sell | $1.65 | $1.41 | -14.5% | +14.5% | Correct so far |
| WGS | Sell | $77.88 | $63.61 | -18.3% | +18.3% | Correct so far |
| ADTN | Sell | $7.76 | $6.31 | -18.7% | +18.7% | Correct so far |
| PENN | Sell | $18.56 | $14.94 | -19.5% | +19.5% | Correct so far |
| NXE | Sell | $10.40 | $8.37 | -19.5% | +19.5% | Correct so far |
| LRCX | Sell | $343.48 | $263.94 | -23.2% | +23.2% | Correct so far |
| STXS | Sell | $1.39 | $1.01 | -27.3% | +27.3% | Correct so far |
| OWLT | Sell | $5.81 | $4.11 | -29.3% | +29.3% | Correct so far |
| SPHR | Sell | $147.34 | $103.53 | -29.7% | +29.7% | Correct so far |
| SRG | Strong Sell | $2.11 | $1.62 | -23.2% | +34.8% | Correct so far |
Live LF0 scorecard: The Scorecard | Research Performance dashboard
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell securities. Returns use LF0’s daily-close scorecard methodology.
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