This is a Scorecard review, revisiting a past LF0 research call against what actually happened.
Ticker: CAR Rating: Sell Published: 2026-06-21 Checkpoint: 2026-08-21 Entry price: $186.28 Latest price: $146.61 as of 2026-08-21 Stock return since entry: -21.3% Signal return: +21.3% Verdict: Correct so far
This is the 2-month checkpoint for this call. LF0 publishes monthly Scorecard updates through month 6, using the closest available daily close on or before the checkpoint date.
Read the original LF0 analysis
What I Said
I rated CAR a Sell because I thought the recovery story still depended on execution that had not been proven in the numbers. My focus was on the balance sheet and cash generation: $27.7B of debt, only $168M of levered free cash flow, and the risk that one weak refinancing or residual-value miss could put pressure back on the equity.
Peer Comparison
| Company | Return Since Entry |
|---|---|
| CAR (this call) | -21.3% |
| HTZ | -55.1% |
| LYFT | +22.0% |
| R | -7.9% |
| UBER | +7.0% |
| UHAL | +6.7% |
Why It’s Working (Or Not)
So far, that bearish call has worked: if I had shorted CAR at my entry price, I would be up about 21.3% as the stock has fallen since I wrote it. The move is consistent with my original concern that the equity was still vulnerable to leverage and cash-flow fragility, and the current result does not require me to invent a new explanation. The peer set has been mixed, with several comparables also lower but others higher, so CAR has not simply moved with the group; it has shown enough weakness to support my thesis. What I can say with confidence is that the specific risk I highlighted — a balance-sheet-driven setback before the recovery was fully established — has not been disproven.
What Could Still Prove Me Wrong
Because this review is still active, I would be wrong if the company starts showing the operating and cash-flow durability I said it needed. Specifically, quarterly EBITDA would need to stay above $700M, levered free cash flow would need to move above $500M TTM, and net margin would need to turn positive in a sustained way. I would also have to reconsider if operating cash flow stays comfortably above $2.5B TTM and the current ratio improves meaningfully ahead of the next refinancing window, because that would undercut the liquidity and leverage risk that drove my Sell.
The June 2026 Cohort
Other directional calls published the same month:
| Ticker | Rating | Entry | Latest | Stock Return | Signal Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SKYH | Sell | $9.37 | $10.32 | +10.1% | -10.1% | Incorrect so far |
| BSX | Buy | $46.76 | $48.08 | +2.8% | +2.8% | Correct so far |
| SOUN | Sell | $7.33 | $6.85 | -6.5% | +6.5% | Correct so far |
| AEHR | Sell | $115.30 | $76.59 | -33.6% | +33.6% | Correct so far |
| BW | Sell | $17.76 | $6.84 | -61.5% | +61.5% | Correct so far |
Live LF0 scorecard: The Scorecard | Research Performance dashboard
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell securities. Returns use LF0’s daily-close scorecard methodology.
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