This is a Scorecard review, revisiting a past LF0 research call against what actually happened.
Ticker: AMBA Rating: Sell Published: 2026-07-14 Checkpoint: 2026-08-14 Entry price: $72.90 Latest price: $82.04 as of 2026-08-14 Stock return since entry: +12.5% Signal return: -12.5% Verdict: Incorrect so far
This is the 1-month checkpoint for this call. LF0 publishes monthly Scorecard updates through month 6, using the closest available daily close on or before the checkpoint date.
Read the original LF0 analysis
What I Said
I rated AMBA a Sell because I thought the valuation was running ahead of the company’s ability to turn growth into durable earnings power. My focus was on the gap between a 7.1x EV/revenue multiple and the lack of clear operating leverage, with the balance sheet giving the company time but not enough proof. I also flagged specific thresholds that would have made me more constructive: revenue staying above $100M, operating margin turning positive, and operating cash flow moving toward $60M-$70M.
Peer Comparison
| Company | Return Since Entry |
|---|---|
| AMBA (this call) | +12.5% |
| ADI | -9.5% |
| ALAB | -22.6% |
| MRVL | -5.4% |
| NVDA | +2.7% |
| ON | -22.5% |
Why It’s Working (Or Not)
So far, that call has not worked: if I had shorted AMBA at my entry price, I would be up 12.5% over this review window, which means the stock moved against my Sell. The peer group has been mixed to lower overall, with several comparable names down over the same stretch, so AMBA’s rise stands out rather than looking like a broad sector move. That means my core thesis about valuation not being backed by operating leverage has not been validated by the price action yet. I also cannot point to the original revenue, margin, or cash-flow thresholds as having been met from the information I have here, so the specific proof I wanted still has not shown up.
What Could Still Prove Me Wrong
If AMBA can keep quarterly revenue above $100M for the next two quarters and push operating margin into positive territory, that would directly challenge my bearish view. I would also be wrong if operating cash flow moves into the $60M-$70M range on a trailing basis, because that would show the balance sheet and earnings base are improving enough to support the valuation. On the other hand, if revenue slips back below $90M or gross margin falls under 58%, that would reinforce the original Sell rather than disprove it.
The July 2026 Cohort
Other directional calls published the same month:
| Ticker | Rating | Entry | Latest | Stock Return | Signal Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NLST | Sell | $2.44 | $6.79 | +178.3% | -178.3% | Incorrect so far |
| BMNR | Sell | $17.74 | $23.85 | +34.5% | -34.5% | Incorrect so far |
| RDW | Sell | $8.99 | $10.30 | +14.5% | -14.5% | Incorrect so far |
| QUBT | Sell | $7.43 | $7.95 | +7.0% | -7.0% | Incorrect so far |
| SMR | Strong Sell | $8.81 | $9.15 | +3.9% | -5.8% | Incorrect so far |
| RCAT | Sell | $7.83 | $8.25 | +5.4% | -5.4% | Incorrect so far |
| FTNT | Sell | $156.25 | $161.65 | +3.5% | -3.5% | Incorrect so far |
| VSAT | Sell | $69.54 | $66.17 | -4.9% | +4.9% | Correct so far |
| TPL | Sell | $408.92 | $365.50 | -10.6% | +10.6% | Correct so far |
| MARA | Sell | $11.67 | $10.32 | -11.6% | +11.6% | Correct so far |
| TTWO | Sell | $247.62 | $217.95 | -12.0% | +12.0% | Correct so far |
| UAN | Buy | $110.58 | $126.59 | +14.5% | +14.5% | Correct so far |
| ONTO | Sell | $319.32 | $257.94 | -19.2% | +19.2% | Correct so far |
| HUT | Sell | $98.33 | $78.81 | -19.9% | +19.9% | Correct so far |
| AMKR | Sell | $60.71 | $46.01 | -24.2% | +24.2% | Correct so far |
| MYRG | Sell | $391.51 | $286.96 | -26.7% | +26.7% | Correct so far |
| FLNC | Sell | $14.42 | $10.55 | -26.9% | +26.9% | Correct so far |
| CIFR | Sell | $21.85 | $14.86 | -32.0% | +32.0% | Correct so far |
| MTZ | Sell | $380.63 | $236.80 | -37.8% | +37.8% | Correct so far |
Live LF0 scorecard: The Scorecard | Research Performance dashboard
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell securities. Returns use LF0’s daily-close scorecard methodology.
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