This is a Scorecard review, revisiting a past LF0 research call against what actually happened.
Ticker: BA Rating: Sell Published: 2026-08-24 Checkpoint: 2026-09-24 Entry price: $210.46 Latest price: $201.15 as of 2026-09-21 Stock return since entry: -4.4% Signal return: +4.4% Verdict: Correct so far
This is the 1-month checkpoint for this call. LF0 publishes monthly Scorecard updates through month 6, using the closest available daily close on or before the checkpoint date.
Read the original LF0 analysis
What I Said
I rated BA a Sell because I thought the recovery was still not clean: the company was trading on a rich 50.8x forward P/E and 2.1x EV/revenue while the operating base was still weak, with TTM EBITDA margin at -3.1% and $48.4B of debt limiting room for another execution slip. My original view was that the burden was on Boeing to prove the 737 and 787 ramps were durable and that 777X losses would stop widening before I would get more constructive.
Peer Comparison
| Company | Return Since Entry |
|---|---|
| BA (this call) | -4.4% |
| BAESY | -7.3% |
| EADSY | -6.2% |
| HON | -1.2% |
| LMT | -5.7% |
| RTX | -8.4% |
Why It’s Working (Or Not)
So far, following the Sell has worked: BA is down from my entry, which means a short would be up 4.4% over the review window. That lines up with my concern that the stock was pricing in a recovery before the operating picture was fully stable. The peer set has also been mostly lower over the same stretch, so BA has not been an isolated move, but the key point is that my specific thesis about valuation and execution risk has not been disproven. I still have not seen evidence that the 50.8x forward P/E was justified by a clean operating reset, and the debt load remains a real constraint if execution slips again.
What Could Still Prove Me Wrong
I would be wrong if Boeing can show that the recovery is actually sticking: 737 output holding at 47 aircraft per month for more than one quarter, 787 output staying at eight per month, and no further deterioration in the 777X timeline or loss profile. If those conditions hold while margins improve from the current weak base, then my concern that the stock was too expensive for the risk would be weakened. A renewed move below those production levels, or another delay beyond 2027 on 777X, would instead reinforce my original Sell.
The August 2026 Cohort
Other directional calls published the same month:
| Ticker | Rating | Entry | Latest | Stock Return | Signal Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SDGR | Sell | $17.40 | $30.24 | +73.8% | -73.8% | Incorrect so far |
| WGS | Sell | $77.88 | $97.83 | +25.6% | -25.6% | Incorrect so far |
| ALT | Sell | $3.15 | $3.27 | +3.8% | -3.8% | Incorrect so far |
| AES | Sell | $14.71 | $14.83 | +0.8% | -0.8% | Incorrect so far |
| VNOM | Sell | $41.67 | $41.72 | +0.1% | -0.1% | Incorrect so far |
| SPHR | Sell | $147.34 | $145.14 | -1.5% | +1.5% | Correct so far |
| STXS | Sell | $1.39 | $1.36 | -2.2% | +2.2% | Correct so far |
| GTN | Sell | $4.83 | $4.62 | -4.4% | +4.4% | Correct so far |
| LHX | Sell | $260.92 | $246.93 | -5.4% | +5.4% | Correct so far |
| NXE | Sell | $10.40 | $9.80 | -5.8% | +5.8% | Correct so far |
| NNDM | Sell | $1.65 | $1.55 | -6.1% | +6.1% | Correct so far |
| NUTX | Buy | $188.41 | $201.48 | +6.9% | +6.9% | Correct so far |
| ADTN | Sell | $7.76 | $7.21 | -7.1% | +7.1% | Correct so far |
| OI | Sell | $6.79 | $6.09 | -10.3% | +10.3% | Correct so far |
| LRCX | Sell | $343.84 | $302.28 | -12.1% | +12.1% | Correct so far |
| PENN | Sell | $18.56 | $16.13 | -13.1% | +13.1% | Correct so far |
| OWLT | Sell | $5.81 | $4.98 | -14.3% | +14.3% | Correct so far |
| SRG | Strong Sell | $2.11 | $1.86 | -11.8% | +17.8% | Correct so far |
| RRGB | Sell | $9.51 | $7.01 | -26.3% | +26.3% | Correct so far |
Live LF0 scorecard: The Scorecard | Research Performance dashboard
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell securities. Returns use LF0’s daily-close scorecard methodology.
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