This is a Scorecard review, revisiting a past LF0 research call against what actually happened.
Ticker: MARA Rating: Sell Published: 2026-07-18 Checkpoint: 2026-09-18 Entry price: $11.67 Latest price: $11.64 as of 2026-09-17 Stock return since entry: -0.3% Signal return: +0.3% Verdict: Correct so far
This is the 2-month checkpoint for this call. LF0 publishes monthly Scorecard updates through month 6, using the closest available daily close on or before the checkpoint date.
Read the original LF0 analysis
What I Said
I rated MARA a Sell because I thought the core issue was still unresolved: the company had a more durable infrastructure base, but it had not yet shown that this setup could absorb bitcoin volatility and still generate positive cash flow. I pointed to the TTM operating cash flow of -$834.7M and levered free cash flow of -$531.1M as evidence that the business was not yet converting its scale into equity value I could underwrite confidently. I also said the AI and HPC buildout was interesting, but not enough on its own until free cash flow turned positive.
Peer Comparison
| Company | Return Since Entry |
|---|---|
| MARA (this call) | -0.3% |
| BTDR | +5.5% |
| CLSK | -4.9% |
| HUT | -8.5% |
| IREN | +10.0% |
| RIOT | +13.9% |
Why It’s Working (Or Not)
So far, following my Sell has earned a small gain: if I had shorted MARA at my entry price, I would be up about 0.26% at this review date. That is not a big move, so I would not overstate the result, but it does mean the stock has not invalidated my bearish setup. The peer group has been mixed, with names like RIOT and IREN moving higher while HUT and CLSK have moved lower, which fits my view that this trade was about MARA’s own cash-flow and bitcoin-sensitivity problem rather than a uniform sector call. The specific concern I raised — negative operating cash flow and negative levered free cash flow — has not yet been disproven by the price action or by any evidence in the data I was given.
What Could Still Prove Me Wrong
What could still prove me wrong is a clear improvement in the operating numbers I highlighted: if MARA shows positive operating margin and a credible path to positive operating cash flow, my Sell case would weaken materially. I would also reassess if bitcoin stays above the level I cited and MARA demonstrates that it can fund the buildout without leaning on asset sales or dilution. If those conditions show up together, then the thesis that the stock is trading more on cash burn than on durable operating progress would no longer hold.
The July 2026 Cohort
Other directional calls published the same month:
| Ticker | Rating | Entry | Latest | Stock Return | Signal Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NLST | Sell | $2.44 | $4.78 | +95.9% | -95.9% | Incorrect so far |
| BMNR | Sell | $17.74 | $23.89 | +34.7% | -34.7% | Incorrect so far |
| RDW | Sell | $8.99 | $11.55 | +28.5% | -28.5% | Incorrect so far |
| QUBT | Sell | $7.43 | $8.44 | +13.6% | -13.6% | Incorrect so far |
| FTNT | Sell | $156.25 | $172.58 | +10.5% | -10.5% | Incorrect so far |
| VSAT | Sell | $69.54 | $73.02 | +5.0% | -5.0% | Incorrect so far |
| SMR | Strong Sell | $8.81 | $9.04 | +2.6% | -3.9% | Incorrect so far |
| HUT | Sell | $98.33 | $90.99 | -7.5% | +7.5% | Correct so far |
| AMBA | Sell | $72.90 | $66.91 | -8.2% | +8.2% | Correct so far |
| RCAT | Sell | $7.83 | $7.09 | -9.4% | +9.4% | Correct so far |
| TTWO | Sell | $247.62 | $210.62 | -14.9% | +14.9% | Correct so far |
| TPL | Sell | $408.26 | $347.20 | -15.0% | +15.0% | Correct so far |
| AMKR | Sell | $60.60 | $47.95 | -20.9% | +20.9% | Correct so far |
| ONTO | Sell | $319.32 | $250.03 | -21.7% | +21.7% | Correct so far |
| CIFR | Sell | $21.85 | $16.94 | -22.5% | +22.5% | Correct so far |
| UAN | Buy | $110.58 | $136.21 | +23.2% | +23.2% | Correct so far |
| MYRG | Sell | $391.51 | $276.76 | -29.3% | +29.3% | Correct so far |
| MTZ | Sell | $380.63 | $207.75 | -45.4% | +45.4% | Correct so far |
| FLNC | Sell | $14.42 | $7.66 | -46.9% | +46.9% | Correct so far |
Live LF0 scorecard: The Scorecard | Research Performance dashboard
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell securities. Returns use LF0’s daily-close scorecard methodology.
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