This is a Scorecard review, revisiting a past LF0 research call against what actually happened.
Ticker: TPL Rating: Sell Published: 2026-07-12 Checkpoint: 2026-09-12 Entry price: $408.26 Latest price: $369.10 as of 2026-09-11 Stock return since entry: -9.6% Signal return: +9.6% Verdict: Correct so far
This is the 2-month checkpoint for this call. LF0 publishes monthly Scorecard updates through month 6, using the closest available daily close on or before the checkpoint date.
Read the original LF0 analysis
What I Said
I argued that TPL was a Sell because the business quality was not the issue; the issue was price. I pointed to a stretched valuation at 32.4x EV/Revenue and 39.4x EV/EBITDA, alongside levered free cash flow that was still negative, and said I wanted to see revenue stay above about $225M and EBITDA hold near $190M to $200M before I would soften that view.
Peer Comparison
| Company | Return Since Entry |
|---|---|
| TPL (this call) | -9.6% |
| BSM | +7.1% |
| FANG | +7.6% |
| KNTK | +10.1% |
| PAA | +12.8% |
| VNOM | +5.1% |
Why It’s Working (Or Not)
So far, following the Sell has earned me a 9.6% gain, which means the stock has moved lower since my entry and the bearish call has been rewarded. That outcome is consistent with my original concern that the valuation was ahead of the cash generation, because I still have not seen the free-cash-flow improvement I wanted before giving the stock more credit. The peer group has mostly moved higher over the same stretch, so TPL has not just drifted with its comparables; it has diverged in the direction that supports my thesis. I cannot claim the operating case has broken, though, because my original thesis was about valuation and cash conversion, and those are the specific points that have been validated so far.
What Could Still Prove Me Wrong
If TPL can keep quarterly revenue above roughly $225M and push levered free cash flow into positive territory while EBITDA stays in the $190M to $200M range for a few quarters, that would directly challenge my Sell. I would also reconsider if the oil and gas royalty line weakens for two straight quarters and yet the stock still holds up because that would suggest the market is willing to keep paying for the moat despite the cash conversion gap. Until then, the burden is on the company to show that the premium multiple is being earned rather than merely assumed.
The July 2026 Cohort
Other directional calls published the same month:
| Ticker | Rating | Entry | Latest | Stock Return | Signal Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NLST | Sell | $2.44 | $4.85 | +98.8% | -98.8% | Incorrect so far |
| BMNR | Sell | $17.74 | $25.03 | +41.1% | -41.1% | Incorrect so far |
| RDW | Sell | $8.99 | $10.62 | +18.1% | -18.1% | Incorrect so far |
| QUBT | Sell | $7.43 | $7.99 | +7.5% | -7.5% | Incorrect so far |
| VSAT | Sell | $69.54 | $74.31 | +6.9% | -6.9% | Incorrect so far |
| MARA | Sell | $11.67 | $11.98 | +2.7% | -2.7% | Incorrect so far |
| RCAT | Sell | $7.83 | $7.96 | +1.7% | -1.7% | Incorrect so far |
| HUT | Sell | $98.33 | $98.60 | +0.3% | -0.3% | Incorrect so far |
| FTNT | Sell | $156.25 | $156.07 | -0.1% | +0.1% | Correct so far |
| SMR | Strong Sell | $8.81 | $8.61 | -2.3% | +3.4% | Correct so far |
| AMBA | Sell | $72.90 | $67.86 | -6.9% | +6.9% | Correct so far |
| ONTO | Sell | $319.32 | $281.26 | -11.9% | +11.9% | Correct so far |
| TTWO | Sell | $247.62 | $215.47 | -13.0% | +13.0% | Correct so far |
| AMKR | Sell | $60.60 | $51.73 | -14.6% | +14.6% | Correct so far |
| UAN | Buy | $110.58 | $135.88 | +22.9% | +22.9% | Correct so far |
| CIFR | Sell | $21.85 | $16.85 | -22.9% | +22.9% | Correct so far |
| MYRG | Sell | $391.51 | $291.26 | -25.6% | +25.6% | Correct so far |
| FLNC | Sell | $14.42 | $9.93 | -31.1% | +31.1% | Correct so far |
| MTZ | Sell | $380.63 | $240.41 | -36.8% | +36.8% | Correct so far |
Live LF0 scorecard: The Scorecard | Research Performance dashboard
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell securities. Returns use LF0’s daily-close scorecard methodology.
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