This is a Scorecard review, revisiting a past LF0 research call against what actually happened.
Ticker: AMKR Rating: Sell Published: 2026-07-27 Checkpoint: 2026-08-27 Entry price: $60.71 Latest price: $51.74 as of 2026-08-27 Stock return since entry: -14.8% Signal return: +14.8% Verdict: Correct so far
This is the 1-month checkpoint for this call. LF0 publishes monthly Scorecard updates through month 6, using the closest available daily close on or before the checkpoint date.
Read the original LF0 analysis
What I Said
I argued that AMKR was a cash-generative packaging business, but that the stock was still priced for a cash-conversion story that had not shown up yet. My Sell call rested on four specific risks: free cash flow was still negative, the valuation was rich at 34.5x trailing earnings, customer concentration could pressure utilization, and the semiconductor cycle could expose any slowdown in revenue or margins.
Peer Comparison
| Company | Return Since Entry |
|---|---|
| AMKR (this call) | -14.8% |
| ASX | +1.5% |
| GFS | -17.3% |
| STM | -5.1% |
| TSEM | -7.8% |
| TSM | +4.1% |
Why It’s Working (Or Not)
So far, following my Sell would have earned about 14.8%, which means the short side has worked in the first month. The move is consistent with my original concern that the market was paying for execution before the cash flow proof arrived, and AMKR has already moved lower while the peer set has been mixed rather than uniformly weak. That matters because it suggests AMKR has not simply moved with the group; the stock has started to diverge in a way that supports my caution on valuation and cycle timing. I still cannot claim the full thesis is proven, though, because I have not yet shown that customer concentration or capex pressure is the specific driver of the decline.
What Could Still Prove Me Wrong
What would prove me wrong is a sustained recovery in the exact areas I flagged: quarterly revenue holding above $1.7B, free cash flow turning positive for two straight quarters, and EBITDA margin expanding by about 1 point or more. If AMKR can show that the Vietnam and Arizona investments are converting into cash without weakening utilization, then my Sell would lose its foundation. A renewed move back below $1.5B in quarterly revenue would also reinforce the bearish case, so I would need to see the opposite before changing my view.
The July 2026 Cohort
Other directional calls published the same month:
| Ticker | Rating | Entry | Latest | Stock Return | Signal Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NLST | Sell | $2.44 | $5.15 | +111.1% | -111.1% | Incorrect so far |
| BMNR | Sell | $17.74 | $23.06 | +30.0% | -30.0% | Incorrect so far |
| RDW | Sell | $8.99 | $10.33 | +14.9% | -14.9% | Incorrect so far |
| SMR | Strong Sell | $8.81 | $9.56 | +8.5% | -12.8% | Incorrect so far |
| RCAT | Sell | $7.83 | $8.32 | +6.3% | -6.3% | Incorrect so far |
| QUBT | Sell | $7.43 | $7.84 | +5.5% | -5.5% | Incorrect so far |
| VSAT | Sell | $69.54 | $69.92 | +0.5% | -0.5% | Incorrect so far |
| FTNT | Sell | $156.25 | $154.54 | -1.1% | +1.1% | Correct so far |
| AMBA | Sell | $72.90 | $67.14 | -7.9% | +7.9% | Correct so far |
| TPL | Sell | $408.26 | $367.32 | -10.0% | +10.0% | Correct so far |
| MARA | Sell | $11.67 | $10.47 | -10.3% | +10.3% | Correct so far |
| TTWO | Sell | $247.62 | $216.14 | -12.7% | +12.7% | Correct so far |
| HUT | Sell | $98.33 | $80.68 | -17.9% | +17.9% | Correct so far |
| ONTO | Sell | $319.32 | $254.55 | -20.3% | +20.3% | Correct so far |
| UAN | Buy | $110.58 | $133.93 | +21.1% | +21.1% | Correct so far |
| FLNC | Sell | $14.42 | $10.56 | -26.8% | +26.8% | Correct so far |
| MYRG | Sell | $391.51 | $282.65 | -27.8% | +27.8% | Correct so far |
| CIFR | Sell | $21.85 | $15.18 | -30.5% | +30.5% | Correct so far |
| MTZ | Sell | $380.63 | $235.33 | -38.2% | +38.2% | Correct so far |
Live LF0 scorecard: The Scorecard | Research Performance dashboard
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell securities. Returns use LF0’s daily-close scorecard methodology.
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