This is a Scorecard review, revisiting a past LF0 research call against what actually happened.
Ticker: UAN Rating: Buy Published: 2026-07-15 Checkpoint: 2026-08-15 Entry price: $110.58 Latest price: $123.50 as of 2026-08-14 Stock return since entry: +11.7% Signal return: +11.7% Verdict: Correct so far
This is the 1-month checkpoint for this call. LF0 publishes monthly Scorecard updates through month 6, using the closest available daily close on or before the checkpoint date.
Read the original LF0 analysis
What I Said
I rated UAN a Buy because my focus was on whether the earnings rebound was durable enough to keep cash flow ahead of the cycle, not on whether the business had a permanent moat. I pointed to Q1 2026 revenue of $180M, EBITDA of $77.7M, and TTM levered free cash flow of $95.7M as evidence that the asset base was still generating real cash, and I also noted that the board-compliance issue had been repaired. I said I would get more constructive if EBITDA stayed above about $60M and operating margin stayed above 30%, while a drop back toward the low-$20M EBITDA range or revenue below $140M would weaken the call.
Peer Comparison
| Company | Return Since Entry |
|---|---|
| UAN (this call) | +11.7% |
| CF | +18.1% |
| IPI | +18.1% |
| MOS | +11.3% |
| YARIY | +3.9% |
Why It’s Working (Or Not)
So far, following my Buy would have earned about 11.7%, which means the call has worked in the direction I wanted. The peer group has been mixed to higher overall, with CF, IPI, and MOS all positive over the same stretch, so UAN has not been an isolated move, but it has still participated in a constructive fertilizer tape. What has held up is the specific cash-flow argument: the stock has stayed firm enough that my thesis about a durable rebound has not been disproven yet, and the governance overhang I mentioned appears to have faded from view. I have not yet seen evidence that quarterly EBITDA has rolled back toward the low-$20M area or that revenue has slipped under $140M, so the original warning signs have not materialized in the numbers I was watching.
What Could Still Prove Me Wrong
What could still prove me wrong is a clear reversal in the operating metrics I highlighted: if quarterly EBITDA falls back toward the low-$20M range, or if revenue drops below $140M for another quarter, I would have to treat the rebound as less durable than I thought. I would also reconsider if operating margin falls materially below 30%, because that would suggest the cost structure is no longer supporting the cash generation I used to justify the Buy. If the board-compliance issue reappears as a governance problem, that would be another concrete reason to downgrade my view.
The July 2026 Cohort
Other directional calls published the same month:
| Ticker | Rating | Entry | Latest | Stock Return | Signal Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NLST | Sell | $2.44 | $6.65 | +172.5% | -172.5% | Incorrect so far |
| BMNR | Sell | $17.74 | $23.37 | +31.7% | -31.7% | Incorrect so far |
| RDW | Sell | $8.99 | $10.26 | +14.1% | -14.1% | Incorrect so far |
| SMR | Strong Sell | $8.81 | $9.21 | +4.5% | -6.8% | Incorrect so far |
| QUBT | Sell | $7.43 | $7.90 | +6.3% | -6.3% | Incorrect so far |
| RCAT | Sell | $7.83 | $8.25 | +5.4% | -5.4% | Incorrect so far |
| FTNT | Sell | $156.25 | $161.85 | +3.6% | -3.6% | Incorrect so far |
| VSAT | Sell | $69.54 | $66.28 | -4.7% | +4.7% | Correct so far |
| AMBA | Sell | $72.90 | $67.83 | -7.0% | +7.0% | Correct so far |
| TPL | Sell | $408.26 | $369.93 | -9.4% | +9.4% | Correct so far |
| MARA | Sell | $11.67 | $10.23 | -12.3% | +12.3% | Correct so far |
| TTWO | Sell | $247.62 | $216.68 | -12.5% | +12.5% | Correct so far |
| ONTO | Sell | $319.32 | $256.37 | -19.7% | +19.7% | Correct so far |
| HUT | Sell | $98.33 | $77.57 | -21.1% | +21.1% | Correct so far |
| AMKR | Sell | $60.71 | $45.73 | -24.7% | +24.7% | Correct so far |
| MYRG | Sell | $391.51 | $286.46 | -26.8% | +26.8% | Correct so far |
| FLNC | Sell | $14.42 | $10.42 | -27.7% | +27.7% | Correct so far |
| CIFR | Sell | $21.85 | $14.61 | -33.1% | +33.1% | Correct so far |
| MTZ | Sell | $380.63 | $237.74 | -37.5% | +37.5% | Correct so far |
Live LF0 scorecard: The Scorecard | Research Performance dashboard
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell securities. Returns use LF0’s daily-close scorecard methodology.
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