This is a Scorecard review, revisiting a past LF0 research call against what actually happened.
Ticker: SPHR Rating: Sell Published: 2026-08-27 Checkpoint: 2026-10-27 Entry price: $147.34 Latest price: $110.44 as of 2026-10-26 Stock return since entry: -25.0% Signal return: +25.0% Verdict: Correct so far
This is the 2-month checkpoint for this call. LF0 publishes monthly Scorecard updates through month 6, using the closest available daily close on or before the checkpoint date.
Previous checkpoint: our 1-month review (2026-09-27) was correct (stock return -4.2% since entry). Each monthly review is judged on its own date, so the verdict can change from one month to the next.
Read the original LF0 analysis
What I Said
I argued that SPHR had a real cash-generation story, but that the operating line had not yet proven the venue could absorb its fixed cost base. I pointed to $442.7M of levered free cash flow TTM and a 32.6% FCF margin as the strongest support, while flagging $913.3M of debt, the MSG Networks term loan due in 2029, and a rich valuation at 23.6x EV/EBITDA and 4.4x EV/revenue.
Peer Comparison
| Company | Return Since Entry |
|---|---|
| SPHR (this call) | -25.0% |
| CNK | +7.5% |
| DIS | +2.7% |
| LYV | -4.2% |
| MSGE | +0.2% |
| MSGS | -2.4% |
Why It’s Working (Or Not)
Following the Sell call would have earned 25.0% over this tracking window, so the bearish signal has worked to date. The stock has fallen from $147.34 to $110.44, which is consistent with my view that the market was paying up for a cash story that still lacked durable operating profit. The peer set has been mixed, with several names up and several down, so SPHR’s decline was not just a broad group move; it diverged enough to support the original caution. The specific concern I raised about valuation and the lack of proven operating leverage has held up better than the more constructive cash-flow argument.
What Could Still Prove Me Wrong
If SPHR can keep generating FCF above $400M while also showing a sustained positive operating margin, that would directly challenge the core of my thesis. I would also reconsider if the company continues to hold revenue at or above the Q1 2026 level while the debt load remains manageable and the MSG Networks structure does not become a larger equity issue. A renewed move higher in the stock alongside that operating improvement would tell me the fixed-cost base is finally being absorbed.
The August 2026 Cohort
Other directional calls published the same month:
| Ticker | Rating | Entry | Latest | Stock Return | Signal Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SDGR | Sell | $17.40 | $24.50 | +40.8% | -40.8% | Incorrect so far |
| VNOM | Sell | $41.67 | $47.16 | +13.2% | -13.2% | Incorrect so far |
| AES | Sell | $14.71 | $15.03 | +2.2% | -2.2% | Incorrect so far |
| LHX | Sell | $260.92 | $260.23 | -0.3% | +0.3% | Correct so far |
| OI | Sell | $6.79 | $6.44 | -5.2% | +5.2% | Correct so far |
| GTN | Sell | $4.83 | $4.37 | -9.5% | +9.5% | Correct so far |
| BA | Sell | $210.46 | $188.31 | -10.5% | +10.5% | Correct so far |
| NUTX | Buy | $188.41 | $209.01 | +10.9% | +10.9% | Correct so far |
| RRGB | Sell | $9.51 | $8.20 | -13.8% | +13.8% | Correct so far |
| NNDM | Sell | $1.65 | $1.40 | -15.2% | +15.2% | Correct so far |
| ADTN | Sell | $7.76 | $6.55 | -15.6% | +15.6% | Correct so far |
| PENN | Sell | $18.56 | $14.90 | -19.7% | +19.7% | Correct so far |
| NXE | Sell | $10.40 | $8.33 | -19.9% | +19.9% | Correct so far |
| WGS | Sell | $77.88 | $61.26 | -21.3% | +21.3% | Correct so far |
| STXS | Sell | $1.39 | $0.99 | -28.8% | +28.8% | Correct so far |
| OWLT | Sell | $5.81 | $4.03 | -30.6% | +30.6% | Correct so far |
| LRCX | Sell | $343.48 | $237.50 | -30.9% | +30.9% | Correct so far |
| SRG | Strong Sell | $2.11 | $1.65 | -21.8% | +32.7% | Correct so far |
Sector Scorecard: Communication Services
How are our Communication Services calls doing overall, and where does SPHR sit among them?
| Peer call | Rating | Published | Signal return |
|---|---|---|---|
| LUMN | Strong Sell | 2026-10-08 | +30.5% |
| TTWO | Sell | 2026-07-28 | +17.9% |
| CHTR | Sell | 2026-09-24 | +13.1% |
| GTN | Sell | 2026-08-20 | +9.5% |
We saw Communication Services post a 100% hit rate across 5 calls with a +19.2% average signal return, led by LUMN +30.5% and with GTN +9.5% as the weakest call. Across the league table, Industrials led on a +25.1% average signal return with a 93% hit rate over 14 calls, while Technology was the most active at 24 calls and still delivered an 83% hit rate and +15.1% average signal return. Thin sectors were not ranked, including Utilities with 3 calls and a 33% hit rate, and the best and worst calls overall were BW +76.5% in Industrials and NLST -163.9% in Technology.
Sector League Table
| Sector | Calls | Hit rate | Avg signal return | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industrials | 14 | 93% | +25.1% | BW +76.5% | CAR -13.1% |
| Utilities | 3 | 33% | +19.3% | FLNC +61.9% | AES -2.2% |
| Communication Services | 5 | 100% | +19.2% | LUMN +30.5% | GTN +9.5% |
| Financial Services | 4 | 75% | +18.7% | MARA +41.4% | BMNR -18.1% |
| Basic Materials | 4 | 75% | +16.6% | LAR +37.8% | GFI -1.4% |
| Technology | 24 | 83% | +15.1% | CIFR +64.7% | NLST -163.9% |
| Consumer Cyclical | 3 | 100% | +12.9% | PENN +19.7% | OI +5.2% |
| Healthcare | 8 | 62% | +9.7% | CUE +31.6% | SDGR -40.8% |
| Energy | 4 | 75% | +6.3% | TPL +18.3% | VNOM -13.2% |
| Real Estate* | 2 | 50% | +15.6% | SRG +32.7% | SKYH -1.6% |
| Unclassified* | 2 | 50% | +6.7% | NXE +19.9% | FISV -6.5% |
\* Fewer than 3 calls: not ranked.
Sector by Publish Month
| Sector | Jun 2026 | Jul 2026 | Aug 2026 | Sep 2026 | Oct 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Technology | +46.5% (2) | -3.3% (7) | +20.5% (3) | +24.2% (6) | +14.2% (6) |
| Industrials | +76.5% (1) | +39.9% (5) | +5.4% (2) | +5.4% (3) | +16.0% (3) |
| Healthcare | -5.1% (1) | — | +10.2% (5) | +31.6% (1) | +0.0% (1) |
| Communication Services | — | +17.9% (1) | +17.3% (2) | +13.1% (1) | +30.5% (1) |
| Energy | — | +18.3% (1) | -13.2% (1) | +10.8% (1) | +9.2% (1) |
| Financial Services | — | +19.8% (3) | — | — | +15.6% (1) |
| Basic Materials | — | +12.4% (1) | — | +37.8% (1) | +8.1% (2) |
| Utilities | — | +61.9% (1) | -2.2% (1) | — | -1.8% (1) |
| Consumer Cyclical | — | — | +12.9% (3) | — | — |
| Unclassified | — | — | +19.9% (1) | — | -6.5% (1) |
| Real Estate | -1.6% (1) | — | +32.7% (1) | — | — |
Each cell: average signal return to date of the calls published that month (calls in brackets). Signal return is direction-adjusted, so a positive number means our call is right.
Live LF0 scorecard: The Scorecard | Research Performance dashboard
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell securities. Returns use LF0’s daily-close scorecard methodology.
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