This is a Scorecard review, revisiting a past LF0 research call against what actually happened.
Ticker: CHTR Rating: Sell Published: 2026-09-24 Checkpoint: 2026-10-24 Entry price: $117.55 Latest price: $108.61 as of 2026-10-23 Stock return since entry: -7.6% Signal return: +7.6% Verdict: Correct so far
This is the 1-month checkpoint for this call. LF0 publishes monthly Scorecard updates through month 6, using the closest available daily close on or before the checkpoint date.
Read the original LF0 analysis
What I Said
I rated CHTR a sell because I thought the company’s cash generation was being offset by leverage and subscriber erosion, not because the business lacked cash flow. The specific numbers I leaned on were a 14.6% free cash flow yield, $2.2B of levered free cash flow, and a heavy $96.7B debt load with net debt/EBITDA at 4.4x, which I said was still too stretched for me at a 5.3x EV/EBITDA multiple. I also said I would want revenue to stabilize and net debt/EBITDA to fall below 4.0x before I would move toward a hold.
Peer Comparison
| Company | Return Since Entry |
|---|---|
| CHTR (this call) | -7.6% |
| CMCSA | +4.1% |
| LUMN | -22.0% |
| T | -16.8% |
| TMUS | -11.4% |
| VZ | -4.2% |
Why It’s Working (Or Not)
Over this tracking window, following my sell call would have earned 7.6%, which means the short thesis has worked in the direction I expected. The stock has moved lower while the peer set has been mixed to weaker overall, with several comparable names also down, so CHTR’s decline has not been an isolated move against a uniformly strong group. That lines up with my original concern that the leverage burden and subscriber erosion were not yet improving fast enough to make the cash flow feel durable. The part of the thesis I can validate here is the market’s willingness to keep discounting the balance-sheet risk rather than rewarding the headline FCF yield and cheap EV/EBITDA multiple.
What Could Still Prove Me Wrong
I would be wrong if CHTR starts showing the stabilization I said I needed: revenue flattening for two straight quarters and net debt/EBITDA moving below 4.0x. I would also reassess if the company’s cash flow begins to look less defensive and more like balance-sheet repair, rather than just servicing a still-heavy debt load. If the stock reverses higher while those conditions are not met, that would challenge the core of my sell case.
The September 2026 Cohort
Other directional calls published the same month:
| Ticker | Rating | Entry | Latest | Stock Return | Signal Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | Buy | $117.26 | $101.34 | -13.6% | -13.6% | Incorrect so far |
| BORR | Sell | $4.44 | $4.40 | -0.9% | +0.9% | Correct so far |
| ASX | Sell | $41.63 | $38.69 | -7.1% | +7.1% | Correct so far |
| ATI | Sell | $189.65 | $156.88 | -17.3% | +17.3% | Correct so far |
| PL | Sell | $16.42 | $13.41 | -18.3% | +18.3% | Correct so far |
| RXT | Sell | $3.49 | $2.83 | -18.9% | +18.9% | Correct so far |
| ALAB | Sell | $351.31 | $257.16 | -26.8% | +26.8% | Correct so far |
| SIMO | Sell | $269.00 | $187.39 | -30.3% | +30.3% | Correct so far |
| CUE | Sell | $26.96 | $18.66 | -30.8% | +30.8% | Correct so far |
| DOCN | Sell | $136.29 | $93.22 | -31.6% | +31.6% | Correct so far |
| ICHR | Sell | $59.42 | $37.94 | -36.1% | +36.1% | Correct so far |
| LAR | Sell | $6.70 | $4.24 | -36.7% | +36.7% | Correct so far |
Sector Scorecard: Communication Services
How are our Communication Services calls doing overall, and where does CHTR sit among them?
| Peer call | Rating | Published | Signal return |
|---|---|---|---|
| LUMN | Strong Sell | 2026-10-08 | +26.7% |
| SPHR | Sell | 2026-08-27 | +26.1% |
| TTWO | Sell | 2026-07-28 | +17.7% |
| GTN | Sell | 2026-08-20 | +5.2% |
Across sectors, Industrials led the league table with 14 calls, an 86% hit rate, and a +25.8% average signal return, while Technology was close behind on 24 calls with an 88% hit rate and a +16.6% average signal return. Communication Services posted a 100% hit rate on 5 calls with a +16.7% average signal return, and its best call was LUMN +26.7% while its worst was GTN +5.2%. The weakest average signal return among the ranked sectors was Energy at +3.8% on 4 calls, and thin sectors such as Utilities, Financial Services, Basic Materials, and Consumer Cyclical had fewer than 3 calls? no, only Real Estate (2 calls) and Unclassified (2 calls) are thin and are not ranked.
Sector League Table
| Sector | Calls | Hit rate | Avg signal return | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industrials | 14 | 86% | +25.8% | BW +76.6% | CAR -13.6% |
| Utilities | 3 | 67% | +20.2% | FLNC +61.2% | AES -2.0% |
| Financial Services | 4 | 75% | +18.6% | MARA +39.8% | BMNR -26.3% |
| Communication Services | 5 | 100% | +16.7% | LUMN +26.7% | GTN +5.2% |
| Technology | 24 | 88% | +16.6% | CIFR +63.7% | NLST -140.6% |
| Basic Materials | 4 | 75% | +14.6% | LAR +36.7% | GFI -3.1% |
| Consumer Cyclical | 3 | 100% | +13.6% | PENN +21.9% | OI +4.7% |
| Healthcare | 7 | 71% | +12.0% | CUE +30.8% | SDGR -36.8% |
| Energy | 4 | 75% | +3.8% | TPL +17.1% | VNOM -12.7% |
| Real Estate* | 2 | 50% | +16.6% | SRG +34.8% | SKYH -1.7% |
| Unclassified* | 2 | 50% | +5.9% | NXE +21.6% | FISV -9.9% |
\* Fewer than 3 calls: not ranked.
Sector by Publish Month
| Sector | Jun 2026 | Jul 2026 | Aug 2026 | Sep 2026 | Oct 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Technology | +45.8% (2) | +0.6% (7) | +22.8% (3) | +25.1% (6) | +13.9% (6) |
| Industrials | +76.6% (1) | +39.8% (5) | +6.6% (2) | +7.3% (3) | +17.0% (3) |
| Healthcare | -5.1% (1) | — | +11.7% (5) | +30.8% (1) | — |
| Communication Services | — | +17.7% (1) | +15.6% (2) | +7.6% (1) | +26.7% (1) |
| Financial Services | — | +17.1% (3) | — | — | +23.0% (1) |
| Basic Materials | — | +13.4% (1) | — | +36.7% (1) | +4.1% (2) |
| Energy | — | +17.1% (1) | -12.7% (1) | +0.9% (1) | +9.8% (1) |
| Consumer Cyclical | — | — | +13.6% (3) | — | — |
| Utilities | — | +61.2% (1) | -2.0% (1) | — | +1.2% (1) |
| Unclassified | — | — | +21.6% (1) | — | -9.9% (1) |
| Real Estate | -1.7% (1) | — | +34.8% (1) | — | — |
Each cell: average signal return to date of the calls published that month (calls in brackets). Signal return is direction-adjusted, so a positive number means our call is right.
Live LF0 scorecard: The Scorecard | Research Performance dashboard
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell securities. Returns use LF0’s daily-close scorecard methodology.
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