The Scorecard: 3 Month Update: SMR Strong Sell — Correct so far

This is a Scorecard review, revisiting a past LF0 research call against what actually happened.

Ticker: SMR Rating: Strong Sell Published: 2026-07-23 Checkpoint: 2026-10-23 Entry price: $8.81 Latest price: $5.38 as of 2026-10-22 Stock return since entry: -38.9% Signal return: +58.4% Verdict: Correct so far

This is the 3-month checkpoint for this call. LF0 publishes monthly Scorecard updates through month 6, using the closest available daily close on or before the checkpoint date.

Previous checkpoint: our 2-month review (2026-09-23) was correct (stock return -1.5% since entry). Each monthly review is judged on its own date, so the verdict can change from one month to the next.

Read the original LF0 analysis

What I Said

I argued that SMR was a Strong Sell because the stock was already pricing in a very large commercialization success while the business was still burning cash and not yet self-funding. I also pointed to the gap between the current revenue base and the cash needs, plus the risk that backlog and project promises would not convert quickly enough to reduce dilution pressure.

Peer Comparison

Why It’s Working (Or Not)

That call has worked over this tracking window: following the Strong Sell signal would have earned 58.4%, while the stock itself fell 38.9% from my entry. The move has also lined up with the broader peer set, which has been mostly lower as well, so SMR has not been an isolated outlier against its comparable names. The specific concern I emphasized most — that valuation was too rich relative to a still-unproven commercialization path — has held up in price action, because the market has continued to re-rate the stock downward rather than reward the story. The cash-burn and dilution risk I highlighted also remained central to the thesis, and the stock’s decline suggests investors have not been willing to pay up for the pipeline alone.

What Could Still Prove Me Wrong

If SMR starts converting the pipeline into binding customer revenue faster than expected, that would challenge my thesis. A signed RoPower EPC contract or an ENTRA1 PPA and OEM agreement, paired with a clear reduction in cash burn, would be the kind of evidence that could change my view. I would also reassess if the company shows it can fund operations without leaning on repeated equity issuance, because that would weaken the dilution argument that sat at the center of my call.

The July 2026 Cohort

Other directional calls published the same month:

Sector Scorecard: Industrials

How are our Industrials calls doing overall, and where does SMR sit among them?

We saw Industrials lead the league table with 13 calls, a 92% hit rate, and a +27.6% average signal return, with BW +76.2% as the best call and CAR -13.4% as the worst. Technology also posted a 92% hit rate on 24 calls but trailed Industrials on average return at +17.4%, while Communication Services was the only sector with a 100% hit rate, albeit on just 5 calls. At the other end, Energy lagged on a +6.7% average signal return, and Healthcare was middling at +10.7% with a 71% hit rate. Thin samples in Utilities, Financial Services, Basic Materials, Consumer Cyclical, Real Estate, and Unclassified should be treated cautiously.

Sector League Table

\* Fewer than 3 calls: not ranked.

Sector by Publish Month

Each cell: average signal return to date of the calls published that month (calls in brackets). Signal return is direction-adjusted, so a positive number means our call is right.

Live LF0 scorecard: The Scorecard | Research Performance dashboard

Past performance does not guarantee future results. Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell securities. Returns use LF0’s daily-close scorecard methodology.