This is a Scorecard review, revisiting a past LF0 research call against what actually happened.
Ticker: SMR Rating: Strong Sell Published: 2026-07-23 Checkpoint: 2026-08-23 Entry price: $8.81 Latest price: $9.40 as of 2026-08-21 Stock return since entry: +6.7% Signal return: -10.0% Verdict: Incorrect so far
This is the 1-month checkpoint for this call. LF0 publishes monthly Scorecard updates through month 6, using the closest available daily close on or before the checkpoint date.
Read the original LF0 analysis
What I Said
I rated SMR a Strong Sell because I thought the stock was pricing in a lot of commercialization success before the business had earned it. My core concerns were the scale of cash burn, the lack of self-funding cash flow, and the risk that backlog and customer agreements would not convert fast enough to justify a 110.5x EV/Revenue multiple. I also flagged dilution and financing pressure as immediate risks if binding contracts did not arrive soon.
Peer Comparison
| Company | Return Since Entry |
|---|---|
| SMR (this call) | +6.7% |
| BWXT | -11.7% |
| LEU | +0.4% |
| NNE | +4.2% |
| OKLO | -10.2% |
Why It’s Working (Or Not)
So far, that call has not worked: following the Strong Sell would have lost money, with the signal_return showing a 10.0% move against the short thesis over the review window. The specific concerns I highlighted have not yet been validated by the price action, because the stock has risen rather than repriced lower on the cash-burn and execution risks I emphasized. The peer set has been mixed, with some comparable names down and others up, so SMR has not clearly diverged in a way that would rescue my thesis. At this point I cannot claim the valuation or financing warnings have been confirmed by the market; the call is still Incorrect so far.
What Could Still Prove Me Wrong
What could still prove me wrong is if SMR secures the kind of binding customer contract I said would matter, such as a RoPower EPC contract or an ENTRA1 PPA/OEM agreement, and the market continues to reward that visibility. I would also need to see the cash-burn and dilution risk ease in a measurable way, such as operating losses moving materially closer to the level I cited as a threshold. If instead the company keeps relying on equity financing without converting the pipeline into contracted revenue, that would keep the original bear case alive rather than disprove it.
The July 2026 Cohort
Other directional calls published the same month:
| Ticker | Rating | Entry | Latest | Stock Return | Signal Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NLST | Sell | $2.44 | $5.15 | +111.1% | -111.1% | Incorrect so far |
| BMNR | Sell | $17.74 | $23.06 | +30.0% | -30.0% | Incorrect so far |
| RDW | Sell | $8.99 | $10.33 | +14.9% | -14.9% | Incorrect so far |
| RCAT | Sell | $7.83 | $8.32 | +6.3% | -6.3% | Incorrect so far |
| QUBT | Sell | $7.43 | $7.84 | +5.5% | -5.5% | Incorrect so far |
| VSAT | Sell | $69.54 | $69.92 | +0.5% | -0.5% | Incorrect so far |
| FTNT | Sell | $156.25 | $154.54 | -1.1% | +1.1% | Correct so far |
| AMBA | Sell | $72.90 | $67.14 | -7.9% | +7.9% | Correct so far |
| TPL | Sell | $408.26 | $367.32 | -10.0% | +10.0% | Correct so far |
| MARA | Sell | $11.67 | $10.47 | -10.3% | +10.3% | Correct so far |
| TTWO | Sell | $247.62 | $216.14 | -12.7% | +12.7% | Correct so far |
| HUT | Sell | $98.33 | $80.68 | -17.9% | +17.9% | Correct so far |
| ONTO | Sell | $319.32 | $254.55 | -20.3% | +20.3% | Correct so far |
| UAN | Buy | $110.58 | $133.93 | +21.1% | +21.1% | Correct so far |
| AMKR | Sell | $60.71 | $47.17 | -22.3% | +22.3% | Correct so far |
| FLNC | Sell | $14.42 | $10.56 | -26.8% | +26.8% | Correct so far |
| MYRG | Sell | $391.51 | $282.65 | -27.8% | +27.8% | Correct so far |
| CIFR | Sell | $21.85 | $15.18 | -30.5% | +30.5% | Correct so far |
| MTZ | Sell | $380.63 | $235.33 | -38.2% | +38.2% | Correct so far |
Live LF0 scorecard: The Scorecard | Research Performance dashboard
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell securities. Returns use LF0’s daily-close scorecard methodology.
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