This is a Scorecard review, revisiting a past LF0 research call against what actually happened.
Ticker: RCAT Rating: Sell Published: 2026-07-22 Checkpoint: 2026-08-22 Entry price: $7.83 Latest price: $9.62 as of 2026-08-21 Stock return since entry: +22.9% Signal return: -22.9% Verdict: Incorrect so far
This is the 1-month checkpoint for this call. LF0 publishes monthly Scorecard updates through month 6, using the closest available daily close on or before the checkpoint date.
Read the original LF0 analysis
What I Said
I rated RCAT a Sell because I thought the core tension was unresolved: the company had a real defense qualification moat and the SRR program was lifting revenue, but the reported economics were still far too weak. My focus was on the TTM operating margin of -176%, net margin of -138%, and FCF margin of -163.4%, which told me the business was not yet converting that strategic position into durable cash generation. I also said I would need to see quarterly revenue stay above $20M for two straight quarters and gross margin move materially above 7.5% before I would reconsider.
Peer Comparison
| Company | Return Since Entry |
|---|---|
| RCAT (this call) | +22.9% |
| AVAV | -3.3% |
| DPRO | +32.0% |
| KTOS | -0.2% |
| ONDS | -4.9% |
Why It’s Working (Or Not)
So far, the call has not worked: if I had shorted RCAT at my entry price, I would be down 22.9% over this review window. That means the stock has moved against the bearish signal, even though my original concern about weak margins has not yet been disproven by the numbers I cited. The peer set has been mixed, with several comparables also higher and a few lower, so RCAT’s move does not look like a clean confirmation of the thesis from relative performance alone. At this point, the specific part of my thesis that has failed is the expectation that the market would first punish the still-negative cash economics before the valuation could re-rate higher.
What Could Still Prove Me Wrong
I am still not ready to abandon the thesis unless the operating data start validating the turnaround I said I needed. If RCAT can print two consecutive quarters above $20M in revenue and gross margin can hold materially above 7.5% while operating margin stays deeply negative, that would tell me the scale argument is finally taking hold and my Sell would be too cautious. On the other hand, if revenue slips back below $10M or cash burn stays near the current pace, that would reinforce the original bearish case rather than rescue it.
The July 2026 Cohort
Other directional calls published the same month:
| Ticker | Rating | Entry | Latest | Stock Return | Signal Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NLST | Sell | $2.44 | $5.15 | +111.1% | -111.1% | Incorrect so far |
| BMNR | Sell | $17.74 | $23.06 | +30.0% | -30.0% | Incorrect so far |
| RDW | Sell | $8.99 | $10.33 | +14.9% | -14.9% | Incorrect so far |
| SMR | Strong Sell | $8.81 | $9.56 | +8.5% | -12.8% | Incorrect so far |
| QUBT | Sell | $7.43 | $7.84 | +5.5% | -5.5% | Incorrect so far |
| VSAT | Sell | $69.54 | $69.92 | +0.5% | -0.5% | Incorrect so far |
| FTNT | Sell | $156.25 | $154.54 | -1.1% | +1.1% | Correct so far |
| AMBA | Sell | $72.90 | $67.14 | -7.9% | +7.9% | Correct so far |
| TPL | Sell | $408.26 | $367.32 | -10.0% | +10.0% | Correct so far |
| MARA | Sell | $11.67 | $10.47 | -10.3% | +10.3% | Correct so far |
| TTWO | Sell | $247.62 | $216.14 | -12.7% | +12.7% | Correct so far |
| HUT | Sell | $98.33 | $80.68 | -17.9% | +17.9% | Correct so far |
| ONTO | Sell | $319.32 | $254.55 | -20.3% | +20.3% | Correct so far |
| UAN | Buy | $110.58 | $133.93 | +21.1% | +21.1% | Correct so far |
| AMKR | Sell | $60.71 | $47.17 | -22.3% | +22.3% | Correct so far |
| FLNC | Sell | $14.42 | $10.56 | -26.8% | +26.8% | Correct so far |
| MYRG | Sell | $391.51 | $282.65 | -27.8% | +27.8% | Correct so far |
| CIFR | Sell | $21.85 | $15.18 | -30.5% | +30.5% | Correct so far |
| MTZ | Sell | $380.63 | $235.33 | -38.2% | +38.2% | Correct so far |
Live LF0 scorecard: The Scorecard | Research Performance dashboard
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell securities. Returns use LF0’s daily-close scorecard methodology.
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