This is a Scorecard review, revisiting a past LF0 research call against what actually happened.
Ticker: MYRG Rating: Sell Published: 2026-07-17 Checkpoint: 2026-08-17 Entry price: $391.51 Latest price: $340.78 as of 2026-08-17 Stock return since entry: -13.0% Signal return: +13.0% Verdict: Correct so far
This is the 1-month checkpoint for this call. LF0 publishes monthly Scorecard updates through month 6, using the closest available daily close on or before the checkpoint date.
Read the original LF0 analysis
What I Said
I rated MYR Group a Sell because I thought the stock was already priced for a lot of good news: the business had strong revenue growth, a 6.8% EBITDA margin, and net cash, but it was also trading at 23.4x EV/EBITDA and 29.1x forward P/E. My view was that the downside case was easier to trigger than the upside case, especially if project timing slipped, the Valley acquisition took longer to integrate, or a fixed-price project went wrong.
Peer Comparison
| Company | Return Since Entry |
|---|---|
| MYRG (this call) | -13.0% |
| EME | -1.8% |
| FIX | -7.3% |
| FLR | +14.3% |
| MTZ | -28.8% |
| PRIM | -13.3% |
Why It’s Working (Or Not)
So far, that call has worked: from my entry price, a short position would have earned about 13.0%, which is exactly the kind of outcome I was looking for on a Sell. The stock has moved lower while the peer group has been mixed to mostly weaker as well, so MYRG has not been an isolated move, but it has still gone in the direction that supports my thesis. What I can say is that the valuation risk I highlighted has not been disproven; the market has not rewarded the stock for the high multiples I called out. I still cannot claim the operational risks were the sole driver, because I do not have evidence here that a project slip or Valley integration issue was the specific catalyst.
What Could Still Prove Me Wrong
Because this is still an active review window, I would be wrong if MYR Group shows that the premium valuation is justified by durable execution: revenue staying above $1B per quarter, EBITDA holding above $80M, and free cash flow remaining positive without margin compression. I would also have to reconsider if the company keeps growing above 10% for multiple quarters and the market continues to support the current multiple despite no sign of project overruns or integration strain. A clear fixed-price project miss or a move back toward the mid-5% EBITDA margin would be the most direct evidence against my thesis.
The July 2026 Cohort
Other directional calls published the same month:
| Ticker | Rating | Entry | Latest | Stock Return | Signal Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NLST | Sell | $2.44 | $6.65 | +172.5% | -172.5% | Incorrect so far |
| BMNR | Sell | $17.74 | $23.37 | +31.7% | -31.7% | Incorrect so far |
| RDW | Sell | $8.99 | $10.26 | +14.1% | -14.1% | Incorrect so far |
| SMR | Strong Sell | $8.81 | $9.21 | +4.5% | -6.8% | Incorrect so far |
| QUBT | Sell | $7.43 | $7.90 | +6.3% | -6.3% | Incorrect so far |
| RCAT | Sell | $7.83 | $8.25 | +5.4% | -5.4% | Incorrect so far |
| FTNT | Sell | $156.25 | $161.85 | +3.6% | -3.6% | Incorrect so far |
| VSAT | Sell | $69.54 | $66.28 | -4.7% | +4.7% | Correct so far |
| AMBA | Sell | $72.90 | $67.83 | -7.0% | +7.0% | Correct so far |
| TPL | Sell | $408.26 | $369.93 | -9.4% | +9.4% | Correct so far |
| MARA | Sell | $11.67 | $10.23 | -12.3% | +12.3% | Correct so far |
| TTWO | Sell | $247.62 | $216.68 | -12.5% | +12.5% | Correct so far |
| UAN | Buy | $110.58 | $130.25 | +17.8% | +17.8% | Correct so far |
| ONTO | Sell | $319.32 | $256.37 | -19.7% | +19.7% | Correct so far |
| HUT | Sell | $98.33 | $77.57 | -21.1% | +21.1% | Correct so far |
| AMKR | Sell | $60.71 | $45.73 | -24.7% | +24.7% | Correct so far |
| FLNC | Sell | $14.42 | $10.42 | -27.7% | +27.7% | Correct so far |
| CIFR | Sell | $21.85 | $14.61 | -33.1% | +33.1% | Correct so far |
| MTZ | Sell | $380.63 | $237.74 | -37.5% | +37.5% | Correct so far |
Live LF0 scorecard: The Scorecard | Research Performance dashboard
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell securities. Returns use LF0’s daily-close scorecard methodology.
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