This is a Scorecard review, revisiting a past LF0 research call against what actually happened.
Ticker: VSAT Rating: Sell Published: 2026-07-11
Entry price: $69.54 Latest price: $69.09 as of 2026-09-29 Stock return since entry: -0.6% Signal return: +0.6% Verdict: Correct so far
This call is still open — LF0 tracks every directional call for 182 days from publication, then freezes the verdict permanently. This one’s tracking window closes 2027-01-09.
Read the original LF0 analysis
What I Said
I rated VSAT a Sell because I thought the stock was already pricing in a recovery that the operating results had not fully earned. My original call leaned on the gap between improving Q1 2026 results and a still-rich valuation, especially the 182.4x forward P/E and 3.3x EV/revenue, which I felt left too much room for disappointment. I also flagged leverage and execution risk as the key reasons I wanted to stay cautious until the turnaround looked cleaner.
Peer Comparison
| Company | Return Since Entry |
|---|---|
| VSAT (this call) | -0.6% |
| CIEN | -20.3% |
| ERIC | -20.5% |
| GSAT | +3.5% |
| IRDM | -1.0% |
| VIAV | +2.2% |
Why It’s Working (Or Not)
Over this tracking window, a short position would have earned 0.65%, so the Sell call has been directionally right, even if the move has been modest. That fits my core thesis: the stock has not shown the kind of sustained upside that would have justified paying up for the recovery I described. The peer set has been mixed, with several comparables down sharply and a few modestly higher, which tells me VSAT has not been an isolated outlier but also has not broken away in a way that would challenge my caution. The specific valuation concern I highlighted has not been disproven by price action, and the balance-sheet/execution risk I emphasized remains consistent with a stock that has gone nowhere over the period.
What Could Still Prove Me Wrong
If VSAT starts to re-rate on a sustained basis while the operating recovery continues, that would weaken my Sell case. In particular, I would want to see revenue move convincingly above the level I cited as the bull-case threshold and cash generation improve enough to make the leverage concern less relevant. If the stock can hold a higher range while peers remain mixed, that would suggest the market is no longer waiting for the cleaner inflection I wanted before paying for the equity.
The July 2026 Cohort
Other directional calls published the same month:
| Ticker | Rating | Entry | Latest | Stock Return | Signal Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NLST | Sell | $2.44 | $5.43 | +122.5% | -122.5% | Incorrect so far |
| BMNR | Sell | $17.74 | $26.73 | +50.7% | -50.7% | Incorrect so far |
| RDW | Sell | $8.99 | $10.73 | +19.4% | -19.4% | Incorrect so far |
| QUBT | Sell | $7.43 | $8.46 | +13.9% | -13.9% | Incorrect so far |
| FTNT | Sell | $156.25 | $175.96 | +12.6% | -12.6% | Incorrect so far |
| MARA | Sell | $11.67 | $11.99 | +2.7% | -2.7% | Incorrect so far |
| ONTO | Sell | $319.32 | $304.69 | -4.6% | +4.6% | Correct so far |
| HUT | Sell | $98.33 | $92.86 | -5.6% | +5.6% | Correct so far |
| AMBA | Sell | $72.90 | $68.73 | -5.7% | +5.7% | Correct so far |
| AMKR | Sell | $60.60 | $54.14 | -10.7% | +10.7% | Correct so far |
| UAN | Buy | $110.58 | $123.71 | +11.9% | +11.9% | Correct so far |
| RCAT | Sell | $7.83 | $6.45 | -17.6% | +17.6% | Correct so far |
| SMR | Strong Sell | $8.81 | $7.76 | -11.9% | +17.9% | Correct so far |
| TTWO | Sell | $247.62 | $202.78 | -18.1% | +18.1% | Correct so far |
| TPL | Sell | $408.26 | $328.70 | -19.5% | +19.5% | Correct so far |
| CIFR | Sell | $21.85 | $16.51 | -24.4% | +24.4% | Correct so far |
| MYRG | Sell | $391.51 | $288.31 | -26.4% | +26.4% | Correct so far |
| MTZ | Sell | $380.63 | $210.23 | -44.8% | +44.8% | Correct so far |
| FLNC | Sell | $14.42 | $7.82 | -45.8% | +45.8% | Correct so far |
Live LF0 scorecard: The Scorecard | Research Performance dashboard
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell securities. Returns use LF0’s daily-close scorecard methodology.
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