This is a Scorecard review, revisiting a past LF0 research call against what actually happened.
Ticker: RDW Rating: Sell Published: 2026-07-22 Checkpoint: 2026-09-22 Entry price: $8.99 Latest price: $11.60 as of 2026-09-21 Stock return since entry: +29.0% Signal return: -29.0% Verdict: Incorrect so far
This is the 2-month checkpoint for this call. LF0 publishes monthly Scorecard updates through month 6, using the closest available daily close on or before the checkpoint date.
Read the original LF0 analysis
What I Said
I rated RDW a Sell because I thought the company’s backlog and revenue scale were not yet translating into the cash generation that would justify the valuation. My original concern was specific: even with $97M of Q1 2026 revenue and $411.2M of backlog, EBITDA margin was still deeply negative and free cash flow was still negative, so I believed the turnaround story was ahead of the fundamentals.
Peer Comparison
| Company | Return Since Entry |
|---|---|
| RDW (this call) | +29.0% |
| AVAV | +5.4% |
| KTOS | -0.8% |
| LUNR | +14.7% |
| PL | -24.7% |
| RKLB | +3.4% |
Why It’s Working (Or Not)
So far, that call has not worked: if I had shorted RDW at my entry price, I would be down about 29.0% over the review window. The stock has moved higher while the peer group has been mixed to mostly positive, which tells me RDW has not meaningfully diverged lower in the way my bearish thesis required. The specific cash-flow and margin concerns I highlighted have not been disproven by the price action; instead, the market has continued to reward the story despite those unresolved fundamentals. I cannot claim the Sell was right on the evidence I have today, and the verdict is plainly incorrect so far.
What Could Still Prove Me Wrong
This review is still active, so I would need to see the original thesis fail in a concrete way before I could change my mind. If RDW can hold revenue above $100M for two straight quarters and move EBITDA closer to breakeven while free cash flow stays negative, that would weaken my bearish case further. On the other hand, if revenue slips back below $80M for two quarters, backlog falls under $350M, or the company raises equity before operating cash flow turns positive, those would be the kinds of developments that would validate the risks I flagged.
The July 2026 Cohort
Other directional calls published the same month:
| Ticker | Rating | Entry | Latest | Stock Return | Signal Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NLST | Sell | $2.44 | $5.10 | +109.0% | -109.0% | Incorrect so far |
| BMNR | Sell | $17.74 | $28.25 | +59.2% | -59.2% | Incorrect so far |
| QUBT | Sell | $7.43 | $8.96 | +20.6% | -20.6% | Incorrect so far |
| MARA | Sell | $11.67 | $13.28 | +13.8% | -13.8% | Incorrect so far |
| FTNT | Sell | $156.25 | $175.23 | +12.1% | -12.1% | Incorrect so far |
| VSAT | Sell | $69.54 | $76.38 | +9.8% | -9.8% | Incorrect so far |
| HUT | Sell | $98.33 | $103.42 | +5.2% | -5.2% | Incorrect so far |
| SMR | Strong Sell | $8.81 | $8.79 | -0.2% | +0.3% | Correct so far |
| AMBA | Sell | $72.90 | $68.85 | -5.6% | +5.6% | Correct so far |
| TPL | Sell | $408.26 | $366.80 | -10.2% | +10.2% | Correct so far |
| RCAT | Sell | $7.83 | $6.95 | -11.2% | +11.2% | Correct so far |
| CIFR | Sell | $21.85 | $18.90 | -13.5% | +13.5% | Correct so far |
| ONTO | Sell | $319.32 | $275.98 | -13.6% | +13.6% | Correct so far |
| AMKR | Sell | $60.60 | $52.19 | -13.9% | +13.9% | Correct so far |
| TTWO | Sell | $247.62 | $209.92 | -15.2% | +15.2% | Correct so far |
| UAN | Buy | $110.58 | $129.10 | +16.7% | +16.7% | Correct so far |
| MYRG | Sell | $391.51 | $288.45 | -26.3% | +26.3% | Correct so far |
| MTZ | Sell | $380.63 | $222.90 | -41.4% | +41.4% | Correct so far |
| FLNC | Sell | $14.42 | $7.39 | -48.8% | +48.8% | Correct so far |
Live LF0 scorecard: The Scorecard | Research Performance dashboard
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell securities. Returns use LF0’s daily-close scorecard methodology.
Leave a Comment