Executive Summary
This run tracked 149 articles and 51 active long/short calls, with an average signal return of +3.9% and a hit rate of +68.6%.
This is one in a recurring series that reviews LF0 Research’s own past ratings against what actually happened to the stock. The goal is an honest scorecard, not a highlight reel — full methodology and every call we’ve ever made is at /research-performance/.
If You’d Followed Every Pick
Beyond individual calls, here’s the model portfolio question: what if you’d put $1 into every Buy/Strong Buy pick the day we published it, and a separate $1 short into every Sell/Strong Sell pick? We’ve rated stocks at very different times — some calls go back to June 2026, others were made last week — so each pick’s $1 only joins its book on its own publish date. The return below is pooled value versus total capital actually deployed at each point in time, not a return measured from one shared start date.
- Long book: +10.0% on 3 pick(s), $1 each. $3.00 deployed is worth $3.30 today.
- Short book: +3.5% on 48 pick(s), $1 each. $48.00 deployed is worth $49.67 today.
- Combined, long + short (i.e. every pick since we started): +3.9% on 51 pick(s), $1 each. $51.00 deployed is worth $52.97 today.
For comparison, here’s what the same $51.00 would have returned in a lump-sum buy-and-hold of the broad market since our first tracked pick (2026-06-09). This isn’t an identical methodology, since our capital went in gradually rather than all at once, but it’s the closest honest same-period reference point:
- S&P 500 (SPY): +3.7%. $51.00 would be worth $52.90 today.
- Nasdaq-100 (QQQ): +1.4%. $51.00 would be worth $51.71 today.
This Week’s Calls
BW — Sell (Notable mover — best active signal return)
What we said: No original thesis text was available.
What happened: Entry $17.76, latest $7.32, stock return -58.8%.
Why: Verdict: Correct so far.
FLNC — Sell (Notable mover — best active signal return)
What we said: This Fluence Energy stock analysis reviews FLNC cash burn, backlog quality, short interest, valuation, gross margins, liquidity, and execution risk.
Quick thesis: FLNC has a large energy-storage opportunity, but the stock depends on backlog quality, margin execution, liquidity, and whether short interest is correctly pricing operational risk.
| Factor | Why it matters |
|---|---|
| Backlog q |
What happened: Entry $14.42, latest $7.66, stock return -46.9%.
Why: Verdict: Correct so far.
MTZ — Sell (Notable mover — best active signal return)
What we said: No original thesis text was available.
What happened: Entry $380.63, latest $207.75, stock return -45.4%.
Why: Verdict: Correct so far.
NLST — Sell (Notable mover — worst active signal return)
What we said: – Rated sell because the stock prices in cleaner cash conversion than Netlist has delivered.
- Strongest point: Q1 2026 revenue reached $104.9M, with EBITDA turning positive at $8.6M.
- Biggest risk: operating cash flow was -$15.5M TTM, so earnings are not yet self-funding.
- Valuation is rich at 5.3x EV/revenue and 48.7x EV/EBITDA.
- I would raise my rating if quarterly revenue stays above $100M
What happened: Entry $2.44, latest $4.78, stock return +95.9%.
Why: Verdict: Incorrect so far.
SDGR — Sell (Notable mover — worst active signal return)
What we said: – Rated sell — valuation still prices in growth that cash flow has not earned.
- Strongest point: the platform’s gross margin is 56.9% TTM.
- Biggest risk: operating cash flow is -$126.9M TTM.
- Valuation is rich at 3.9x EV/Revenue and 5.1x P/S.
- I would only improve the rating if free cash flow turns positive and revenue growth re-accelerates.
What happened: Entry $17.40, latest $30.24, stock return +73.8%.
Why: Verdict: Incorrect so far.
CUE — Sell (Notable mover — worst active signal return)
What we said: – Rated sell — cash burn and dilution risk arrive before clinical proof.
- Strongest point: the platform’s IP base, with 161 issued patents and 308 pending applications.
- Biggest risk: only $27.1M of cash at year-end 2025, with runway into Q1 2027.
- Valuation is rich at 5.1x EV/revenue despite negative free cash flow.
- I would move more bearish if the Q2 2026 IND slips or burn stays near $50.1M
What happened: Entry $26.96, latest $37.84, stock return +40.4%.
Why: Verdict: Incorrect so far.
How Each Rating Did
Buy — 3 call(s)
3 Buy call(s), avg signal return +10.0%. UAN helped most; BSX hurt most.
Hold — 98 call(s)
98 Hold call(s), avg move -0.5%. BX held steadiest; TEAM moved the most.
Sell — 46 call(s)
46 Sell call(s), avg signal return +3.5%. BW helped most; NLST hurt most.
Strong Sell — 2 call(s)
2 Strong Sell call(s), avg signal return +3.7%. SRG helped most; SMR hurt most.
Sector Tilt
How the calls we’re actively tracking are distributed across sectors:
| Sector | Long | Short | Hold | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Technology | 0 | 14 | 20 | 34 |
| Industrials | 0 | 10 | 16 | 26 |
| Healthcare | 2 | 6 | 8 | 16 |
| Consumer Cyclical | 0 | 3 | 11 | 14 |
| Basic Materials | 1 | 1 | 10 | 12 |
| Energy | 0 | 3 | 8 | 11 |
| Communication Services | 0 | 3 | 6 | 9 |
| Financial Services | 0 | 3 | 5 | 8 |
| Utilities | 0 | 2 | 4 | 6 |
| Consumer Defensive | 0 | 0 | 5 | 5 |
| Unclassified | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| Real Estate | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
Cumulative Signal Return
Lessons This Week
See the numbers above for this run’s raw hit rate and signal return by rating.
Conclusion
Putting it all together: a $1 long book of every Buy/Strong Buy pick is at $1.10 (+10.0%) across 3 picks; and a $1 short book of every Sell/Strong Sell pick is at $1.03 (+3.5%) across 48 picks.
So far, the long book has outpaced the short book.
This is a running scorecard, not a finished one — both books will keep changing as more picks join and more tracking windows close. We’ll keep restating this comparison every week.
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell securities. Ratings are tracked for 182 days from publication, then frozen as a permanent record.
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