This is a Scorecard review, revisiting a past LF0 research call against what actually happened.
Ticker: NUTX Rating: Buy Published: 2026-08-16 Checkpoint: 2026-09-16 Entry price: $188.41 Latest price: $215.33 as of 2026-09-15 Stock return since entry: +14.3% Signal return: +14.3% Verdict: Correct so far
This is the 1-month checkpoint for this call. LF0 publishes monthly Scorecard updates through month 6, using the closest available daily close on or before the checkpoint date.
Read the original LF0 analysis
What I Said
I argued that Nutex was a Buy because the core issue was whether reimbursement risk was already overwhelming the cash engine, and I thought the numbers said no. I pointed to the company’s 15.6% FCF yield, 19.2% FCF margin, and 37.5% operating margin as evidence that the earnings base was real, while also flagging the specific risks around 50% to 60% of claims going through IDR, $49.7M of accrued arbitration expenses, and dilution from earn-outs and stock-based compensation.
Peer Comparison
| Company | Return Since Entry |
|---|---|
| NUTX (this call) | +14.3% |
| AMWL | +6.7% |
| HIMS | -3.0% |
| LFMD | -2.3% |
| TDOC | -0.1% |
| TEM | +35.2% |
Why It’s Working (Or Not)
So far, following my Buy would have earned about 14.3%, which means the call has worked in the direction I wanted. The stock has also held up better than most of the peer names I was watching, with several comparables flat to down over the same stretch and only a couple moving materially higher, so the move has not been just a broad peer-group lift. More importantly, the specific thesis I wrote down has not been disproven yet: the market has not shown me that reimbursement risk is overwhelming the cash engine, and the operating and free-cash-flow profile I cited still looks like the right lens. That said, this is still only a one-month checkpoint, so I would not overstate the amount of thesis validation I have gotten.
What Could Still Prove Me Wrong
What could still prove me wrong is a clear break in the cash conversion I highlighted: if free cash flow margin falls below 10% or the 15.6% FCF yield compresses into the high single digits, that would tell me the market was right to discount the earnings base. I would also reconsider if operating margin drops materially below the 35% level I said would confirm the business is not just benefiting from one-quarter arbitration timing. Finally, if the IDR and arbitration burden starts showing up as a sustained drag on cash rather than a contained risk, that would directly challenge the original Buy case.
The August 2026 Cohort
Other directional calls published the same month:
| Ticker | Rating | Entry | Latest | Stock Return | Signal Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SDGR | Sell | $17.40 | $23.25 | +33.6% | -33.6% | Incorrect so far |
| WGS | Sell | $77.88 | $94.64 | +21.5% | -21.5% | Incorrect so far |
| VNOM | Sell | $41.67 | $45.96 | +10.3% | -10.3% | Incorrect so far |
| ALT | Sell | $3.15 | $3.23 | +2.5% | -2.5% | Incorrect so far |
| AES | Sell | $14.71 | $14.80 | +0.6% | -0.6% | Incorrect so far |
| BA | Sell | $210.46 | $209.69 | -0.4% | +0.4% | Correct so far |
| GTN | Sell | $4.83 | $4.78 | -1.0% | +1.0% | Correct so far |
| SPHR | Sell | $147.34 | $144.12 | -2.2% | +2.2% | Correct so far |
| LHX | Sell | $260.92 | $249.66 | -4.3% | +4.3% | Correct so far |
| PENN | Sell | $18.56 | $17.74 | -4.4% | +4.4% | Correct so far |
| STXS | Sell | $1.39 | $1.32 | -5.0% | +5.0% | Correct so far |
| OI | Sell | $6.79 | $6.34 | -6.6% | +6.6% | Correct so far |
| SRG | Strong Sell | $2.11 | $2.01 | -4.7% | +7.1% | Correct so far |
| NNDM | Sell | $1.65 | $1.53 | -7.3% | +7.3% | Correct so far |
| ADTN | Sell | $7.76 | $7.08 | -8.8% | +8.8% | Correct so far |
| NXE | Sell | $10.40 | $9.46 | -9.0% | +9.0% | Correct so far |
| OWLT | Sell | $5.81 | $4.64 | -20.1% | +20.1% | Correct so far |
| LRCX | Sell | $343.84 | $270.87 | -21.2% | +21.2% | Correct so far |
| RRGB | Sell | $9.51 | $7.25 | -23.8% | +23.8% | Correct so far |
Live LF0 scorecard: The Scorecard | Research Performance dashboard
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell securities. Returns use LF0’s daily-close scorecard methodology.
Leave a Comment