This is a Scorecard review, revisiting a past LF0 research call against what actually happened.
Ticker: AES Rating: Sell Published: 2026-08-01 Checkpoint: 2026-09-01 Entry price: $14.71 Latest price: $14.77 as of 2026-09-01 Stock return since entry: +0.4% Signal return: -0.4% Verdict: Incorrect so far
This is the 1-month checkpoint for this call. LF0 publishes monthly Scorecard updates through month 6, using the closest available daily close on or before the checkpoint date.
Read the original LF0 analysis
What I Said
I rated AES a Sell because I thought the backlog and takeout process were not enough to offset the fact that the company was still funding growth with borrowed money. My core concern was that TTM levered free cash flow was still about -$3B and net debt/EBITDA was 8.0x, so I did not think the business had yet earned a more constructive view.
Peer Comparison
| Company | Return Since Entry |
|---|---|
| AES (this call) | +0.4% |
| BEP | -6.4% |
| CEG | +4.3% |
| DUK | -1.4% |
| NEE | -2.3% |
| SO | -3.4% |
Why It’s Working (Or Not)
So far, following my Sell would have lost a small amount, because AES is modestly higher from my entry price and the short signal has not paid off. That means my specific cash-flow and leverage thesis has not been validated yet: I wanted to see self-funding improvement, but the market has not rewarded that concern in the first month. The peer group has been mixed, with several comparable utilities lower and a few higher, so AES has not clearly diverged in a way that would rescue the call. At this point I have to call the rating incorrect so far, even though the move has been small and the original thesis has not been fully tested.
What Could Still Prove Me Wrong
If AES can show two consecutive quarters of positive levered free cash flow and bring net debt/EBITDA below 7.0x, that would directly challenge my original bearish case. I would also watch whether the stock keeps trading near the $15 takeout level, because that would mean the merger floor is doing more of the work than the balance-sheet repair I was waiting for. If instead the company keeps burning cash while leverage stays elevated, my original concern would remain intact.
The August 2026 Cohort
Other directional calls published the same month:
| Ticker | Rating | Entry | Latest | Stock Return | Signal Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SDGR | Sell | $17.40 | $20.88 | +20.0% | -20.0% | Incorrect so far |
| WGS | Sell | $77.88 | $86.72 | +11.4% | -11.4% | Incorrect so far |
| VNOM | Sell | $41.67 | $45.12 | +8.3% | -8.3% | Incorrect so far |
| ALT | Sell | $3.15 | $3.28 | +4.1% | -4.1% | Incorrect so far |
| OI | Sell | $6.79 | $7.07 | +4.1% | -4.1% | Incorrect so far |
| GTN | Sell | $4.91 | $4.93 | +0.4% | -0.4% | Incorrect so far |
| LHX | Sell | $262.17 | $261.31 | -0.3% | +0.3% | Correct so far |
| STXS | Sell | $1.39 | $1.38 | -0.7% | +0.7% | Correct so far |
| BA | Sell | $210.46 | $208.87 | -0.8% | +0.8% | Correct so far |
| NXE | Sell | $10.40 | $10.22 | -1.7% | +1.7% | Correct so far |
| NUTX | Buy | $188.41 | $192.00 | +1.9% | +1.9% | Correct so far |
| ADTN | Sell | $7.76 | $7.52 | -3.1% | +3.1% | Correct so far |
| SRG | Strong Sell | $2.11 | $2.06 | -2.4% | +3.6% | Correct so far |
| NNDM | Sell | $1.65 | $1.58 | -4.2% | +4.2% | Correct so far |
| SPHR | Sell | $147.34 | $140.63 | -4.6% | +4.6% | Correct so far |
| PENN | Sell | $18.56 | $16.89 | -9.0% | +9.0% | Correct so far |
| RRGB | Sell | $9.51 | $8.46 | -11.0% | +11.0% | Correct so far |
| OWLT | Sell | $5.81 | $5.06 | -12.9% | +12.9% | Correct so far |
| LRCX | Sell | $343.84 | $288.32 | -16.1% | +16.1% | Correct so far |
Live LF0 scorecard: The Scorecard | Research Performance dashboard
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell securities. Returns use LF0’s daily-close scorecard methodology.
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