This is a Scorecard review, revisiting a past LF0 research call against what actually happened.
Ticker: TPL Rating: Sell Published: 2026-07-12 Entry price: $408.92 Latest price: $369.40 as of 2026-08-26 Stock return since entry: -9.7% Signal return: +9.7% Verdict: Correct so far
This call is still open — LF0 tracks every directional call for 182 days from publication, then freezes the verdict permanently. This one’s tracking window closes 2027-01-10.
Read the original LF0 analysis
What I Said
I rated TPL a Sell because I thought the stock was already pricing in a lot of quality: the moat and margins were real, but the valuation was stretched at 32.4x EV/Revenue and 39.4x EV/EBITDA while levered free cash flow was still negative. My original view was that I needed to see quarterly revenue stay above about $225M, EBITDA hold near $190M to $200M, and free cash flow turn positive before I would be comfortable with the price.
Peer Comparison
| Company | Return Since Entry |
|---|---|
| TPL (this call) | -9.7% |
| VNOM | +4.0% |
Why It’s Working (Or Not)
So far, following my Sell has worked: if I had shorted TPL at my entry price, I would be up about 9.7% to date. The stock has also moved differently from the peer I named, VNOM, which has been up over the same window, so TPL has not simply risen with its comparable. The part of my thesis that has been validated is the valuation/cash-flow mismatch: I was worried the premium multiple was ahead of the cash generation, and the current result is consistent with that concern. I cannot claim the operating thresholds I named have been met from the data I have here, so the call is still being supported more by price action than by a confirmed fundamental reset.
What Could Still Prove Me Wrong
What could still prove me wrong is a sustained improvement in the exact operating markers I flagged: quarterly revenue holding above $225M, EBITDA staying in the $190M to $200M range, and levered free cash flow turning positive. If TPL shows that the water and surface platform can keep compounding at that level for a few quarters, then my concern that the valuation was too far ahead of the cash profile would weaken materially. I would also have to reconsider if the company’s royalty revenue stops softening and the business keeps converting earnings into cash instead of just reporting strong margins.
The July 2026 Cohort
Other directional calls published the same month:
| Ticker | Rating | Entry | Latest | Stock Return | Signal Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NLST | Sell | $2.44 | $5.76 | +136.1% | -136.1% | Incorrect so far |
| BMNR | Sell | $17.74 | $24.91 | +40.4% | -40.4% | Incorrect so far |
| RDW | Sell | $8.99 | $11.27 | +25.4% | -25.4% | Incorrect so far |
| RCAT | Sell | $7.83 | $8.93 | +14.0% | -14.0% | Incorrect so far |
| QUBT | Sell | $7.43 | $8.35 | +12.4% | -12.4% | Incorrect so far |
| SMR | Strong Sell | $8.81 | $9.27 | +5.2% | -7.8% | Incorrect so far |
| VSAT | Sell | $69.54 | $71.51 | +2.8% | -2.8% | Incorrect so far |
| FTNT | Sell | $156.25 | $157.54 | +0.8% | -0.8% | Incorrect so far |
| MARA | Sell | $11.67 | $11.22 | -3.9% | +3.9% | Correct so far |
| AMBA | Sell | $72.90 | $69.64 | -4.5% | +4.5% | Correct so far |
| TTWO | Sell | $247.62 | $233.45 | -5.7% | +5.7% | Correct so far |
| ONTO | Sell | $319.32 | $291.88 | -8.6% | +8.6% | Correct so far |
| HUT | Sell | $98.33 | $85.00 | -13.6% | +13.6% | Correct so far |
| UAN | Buy | $110.58 | $126.23 | +14.2% | +14.2% | Correct so far |
| MYRG | Sell | $391.51 | $312.83 | -20.1% | +20.1% | Correct so far |
| AMKR | Sell | $60.71 | $48.40 | -20.3% | +20.3% | Correct so far |
| FLNC | Sell | $14.42 | $11.08 | -23.2% | +23.2% | Correct so far |
| CIFR | Sell | $21.85 | $16.02 | -26.7% | +26.7% | Correct so far |
| MTZ | Sell | $380.63 | $248.73 | -34.7% | +34.7% | Correct so far |
Live LF0 scorecard: The Scorecard | Research Performance dashboard
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell securities. Returns use LF0’s daily-close scorecard methodology.
Leave a Comment