This is a Scorecard review, revisiting a past LF0 research call against what actually happened.
Ticker: MTZ Rating: Sell Published: 2026-07-05 Checkpoint: 2026-10-05 Entry price: $380.63 Latest price: $215.93 as of 2026-10-02 Stock return since entry: -43.3% Signal return: +43.3% Verdict: Correct so far
This is the 3-month checkpoint for this call. LF0 publishes monthly Scorecard updates through month 6, using the closest available daily close on or before the checkpoint date.
Read the original LF0 analysis
What I Said
I rated MTZ a Sell because I thought the bull case still depended on margin expansion and better cash conversion that had not shown up yet, while the downside case only needed the existing policy, tariff, and execution risks to keep slowing project flow. I also pointed to the gap between the 12.8% gross margin, the 0.1% TTM FCF margin, and the then-rich 27.7x EV/EBITDA as evidence that the earnings base was not yet translating into shareholder cash.
Peer Comparison
| Company | Return Since Entry |
|---|---|
| MTZ (this call) | -43.3% |
| DY | -37.3% |
| EME | -0.5% |
| FIX | -3.9% |
| PWR | -0.3% |
| STRL | -27.4% |
Why It’s Working (Or Not)
Over this tracking window, a short position would have earned 43.3%, so the Sell call has worked clearly to date. MTZ has fallen sharply while the peer group has been mixed to lower overall, with several comparables also down but many only modestly so, which supports my view that MTZ was one of the weaker names in the group. The specific concern I highlighted — that cash conversion was lagging the reported earnings profile — has been consistent with the stock’s move, and the market has not rewarded the margin-expansion story yet. I would not overstate it as a perfect thesis win, but the price action has validated the caution I expressed around incomplete execution and cash generation.
What Could Still Prove Me Wrong
If MTZ starts showing materially better cash conversion and the market re-rates the stock before the 182-day window closes, that would challenge my Sell. In particular, a sustained move in operating margin well above 3.7% alongside meaningfully positive levered free cash flow would undercut the core reason I was cautious. A rebound driven by clearer project flow and evidence that the 2025 platform reshaping is translating into cash would also weaken the thesis.
The July 2026 Cohort
Other directional calls published the same month:
| Ticker | Rating | Entry | Latest | Stock Return | Signal Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NLST | Sell | $2.44 | $5.66 | +132.0% | -132.0% | Incorrect so far |
| BMNR | Sell | $17.74 | $26.27 | +48.1% | -48.1% | Incorrect so far |
| RDW | Sell | $8.99 | $10.88 | +21.0% | -21.0% | Incorrect so far |
| FTNT | Sell | $156.25 | $180.95 | +15.8% | -15.8% | Incorrect so far |
| QUBT | Sell | $7.43 | $8.18 | +10.1% | -10.1% | Incorrect so far |
| VSAT | Sell | $69.54 | $72.00 | +3.5% | -3.5% | Incorrect so far |
| ONTO | Sell | $319.32 | $327.77 | +2.6% | -2.6% | Incorrect so far |
| MARA | Sell | $11.67 | $11.23 | -3.8% | +3.8% | Correct so far |
| AMBA | Sell | $72.90 | $68.65 | -5.8% | +5.8% | Correct so far |
| AMKR | Sell | $60.60 | $56.02 | -7.6% | +7.6% | Correct so far |
| HUT | Sell | $98.33 | $89.63 | -8.8% | +8.8% | Correct so far |
| UAN | Buy | $110.58 | $124.82 | +12.9% | +12.9% | Correct so far |
| TPL | Sell | $408.26 | $340.19 | -16.7% | +16.7% | Correct so far |
| SMR | Strong Sell | $8.81 | $7.75 | -12.0% | +18.0% | Correct so far |
| TTWO | Sell | $247.62 | $202.73 | -18.1% | +18.1% | Correct so far |
| RCAT | Sell | $7.83 | $6.40 | -18.3% | +18.3% | Correct so far |
| MYRG | Sell | $391.51 | $304.77 | -22.2% | +22.2% | Correct so far |
| CIFR | Sell | $21.85 | $15.71 | -28.1% | +28.1% | Correct so far |
| FLNC | Sell | $14.42 | $7.61 | -47.2% | +47.2% | Correct so far |
Live LF0 scorecard: The Scorecard | Research Performance dashboard
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell securities. Returns use LF0’s daily-close scorecard methodology.
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