This is a Scorecard review, revisiting a past LF0 research call against what actually happened.
Ticker: AES Rating: Sell Published: 2026-08-01 Checkpoint: 2026-10-01 Entry price: $14.71 Latest price: $14.90 as of 2026-09-30 Stock return since entry: +1.3% Signal return: -1.3% Verdict: Incorrect so far
This is the 2-month checkpoint for this call. LF0 publishes monthly Scorecard updates through month 6, using the closest available daily close on or before the checkpoint date.
Read the original LF0 analysis
What I Said
I rated AES a Sell because I thought the backlog and takeout process were not enough to offset the fact that the company was still funding growth with borrowed money. My focus was on the balance-sheet and cash-flow picture: TTM levered free cash flow was still negative, net debt/EBITDA was 8.0x, and I did not think that profile yet justified a more constructive stance.
Peer Comparison
| Company | Return Since Entry |
|---|---|
| AES (this call) | +1.3% |
| BEP | -14.2% |
| CEG | -4.9% |
| DUK | -7.8% |
| NEE | -11.6% |
| SO | -9.9% |
Why It’s Working (Or Not)
Over this tracking window, a short position would have lost about 1.3%, so my Sell call has not worked to date. The stock has stayed close to my entry price rather than breaking down, which means the leverage-and-cash-flow concern has not translated into the downside I expected. That said, the peer group has been broadly weaker, with BEP, CEG, DUK, NEE, and SO all lower over the same stretch, so AES has held up better than the group I was implicitly worried about. The specific part of my thesis that has not been validated is the idea that the market would quickly punish the combination of negative levered free cash flow and 8.0x net debt/EBITDA.
What Could Still Prove Me Wrong
If AES keeps trading near the takeout level and the merger process remains orderly, that would continue to blunt the bearish case I made. I would also need to see the cash-flow repair I called out: levered free cash flow turning positive for two straight quarters and net debt/EBITDA moving below 7.0x. If those conditions show up, my original concern that the company was still growing on borrowed money would be materially weakened.
The August 2026 Cohort
Other directional calls published the same month:
| Ticker | Rating | Entry | Latest | Stock Return | Signal Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SDGR | Sell | $17.40 | $31.05 | +78.4% | -78.4% | Incorrect so far |
| VNOM | Sell | $41.67 | $39.89 | -4.3% | +4.3% | Correct so far |
| LRCX | Sell | $343.48 | $328.51 | -4.4% | +4.4% | Correct so far |
| NNDM | Sell | $1.65 | $1.57 | -4.8% | +4.8% | Correct so far |
| GTN | Sell | $4.83 | $4.50 | -6.8% | +6.8% | Correct so far |
| WGS | Sell | $77.88 | $72.30 | -7.2% | +7.2% | Correct so far |
| SPHR | Sell | $147.34 | $134.44 | -8.8% | +8.8% | Correct so far |
| ALT | Sell | $3.15 | $2.86 | -9.2% | +9.2% | Correct so far |
| LHX | Sell | $260.92 | $236.78 | -9.3% | +9.3% | Correct so far |
| OWLT | Sell | $5.81 | $5.26 | -9.5% | +9.5% | Correct so far |
| STXS | Sell | $1.39 | $1.23 | -11.5% | +11.5% | Correct so far |
| BA | Sell | $210.46 | $186.05 | -11.6% | +11.6% | Correct so far |
| ADTN | Sell | $7.76 | $6.84 | -11.9% | +11.9% | Correct so far |
| NXE | Sell | $10.40 | $9.12 | -12.3% | +12.3% | Correct so far |
| NUTX | Buy | $188.41 | $211.66 | +12.3% | +12.3% | Correct so far |
| OI | Sell | $6.79 | $5.65 | -16.8% | +16.8% | Correct so far |
| RRGB | Sell | $9.51 | $7.57 | -20.4% | +20.4% | Correct so far |
| PENN | Sell | $18.56 | $14.65 | -21.1% | +21.1% | Correct so far |
| SRG | Strong Sell | $2.11 | $1.62 | -23.2% | +34.8% | Correct so far |
Live LF0 scorecard: The Scorecard | Research Performance dashboard
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell securities. Returns use LF0’s daily-close scorecard methodology.
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