This is a Scorecard review, revisiting a past LF0 research call against what actually happened.
Ticker: PENN Rating: Sell Published: 2026-08-19 Checkpoint: 2026-09-19 Entry price: $18.56 Latest price: $16.45 as of 2026-09-18 Stock return since entry: -11.4% Signal return: +11.4% Verdict: Correct so far
This is the 1-month checkpoint for this call. LF0 publishes monthly Scorecard updates through month 6, using the closest available daily close on or before the checkpoint date.
Read the original LF0 analysis
What I Said
I said PENN was a Sell because the revenue recovery was real, but I thought the balance sheet and cash conversion were too weak to justify the valuation. My specific concern was that $11.1B of debt and 11.7x net debt/EBITDA left the equity dependent on execution, while levered free cash flow was still negative and not yet proving the digital reset was self-funding.
Peer Comparison
| Company | Return Since Entry |
|---|---|
| PENN (this call) | -11.4% |
| ACEL | -6.0% |
| BRSL | -10.5% |
| GENI | -27.4% |
| MCRI | -2.4% |
| MLCO | -15.3% |
Why It’s Working (Or Not)
So far, following my Sell has worked: a short would be up 11.4% from my entry, and PENN has moved lower since I wrote it. The peer group has also been mostly down, so PENN is not an isolated move, but the stock has still gone in the direction that supports my bearish call. The part of my thesis that has held up best is the cash-flow skepticism: I was not asking for revenue growth alone, I wanted positive levered free cash flow, and I have not seen evidence in this review window that the business has crossed that line. That said, this is only one month into the tracking period, so I can only say the leverage-and-cash-conversion concern has been validated so far, not permanently resolved.
What Could Still Prove Me Wrong
What could still prove me wrong is a sustained improvement in cash generation that changes the debt story, especially if levered free cash flow turns positive for two straight quarters as I said I would need to see. If PENN can show that the digital business is converting revenue into cash while net debt/EBITDA starts moving materially lower, then my valuation and balance-sheet concerns would be weakened. I would also reconsider if EBITDA were to slip back below the level that supports the current recovery narrative, because that would show the operating rebound was not durable in the way I needed it to be.
The August 2026 Cohort
Other directional calls published the same month:
| Ticker | Rating | Entry | Latest | Stock Return | Signal Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SDGR | Sell | $17.40 | $29.02 | +66.8% | -66.8% | Incorrect so far |
| WGS | Sell | $77.88 | $101.10 | +29.8% | -29.8% | Incorrect so far |
| ALT | Sell | $3.15 | $3.25 | +3.2% | -3.2% | Incorrect so far |
| VNOM | Sell | $41.67 | $42.27 | +1.4% | -1.4% | Incorrect so far |
| AES | Sell | $14.71 | $14.83 | +0.8% | -0.8% | Incorrect so far |
| SPHR | Sell | $147.34 | $145.19 | -1.5% | +1.5% | Correct so far |
| STXS | Sell | $1.39 | $1.33 | -4.3% | +4.3% | Correct so far |
| NNDM | Sell | $1.65 | $1.57 | -4.8% | +4.8% | Correct so far |
| LHX | Sell | $260.92 | $247.29 | -5.2% | +5.2% | Correct so far |
| BA | Sell | $210.46 | $198.20 | -5.8% | +5.8% | Correct so far |
| ADTN | Sell | $7.76 | $7.20 | -7.2% | +7.2% | Correct so far |
| GTN | Sell | $4.83 | $4.44 | -8.1% | +8.1% | Correct so far |
| NXE | Sell | $10.40 | $9.35 | -10.1% | +10.1% | Correct so far |
| OI | Sell | $6.79 | $6.07 | -10.6% | +10.6% | Correct so far |
| NUTX | Buy | $188.41 | $208.79 | +10.8% | +10.8% | Correct so far |
| LRCX | Sell | $343.84 | $288.11 | -16.2% | +16.2% | Correct so far |
| SRG | Strong Sell | $2.11 | $1.88 | -10.9% | +16.4% | Correct so far |
| OWLT | Sell | $5.81 | $4.74 | -18.4% | +18.4% | Correct so far |
| RRGB | Sell | $9.51 | $7.05 | -25.9% | +25.9% | Correct so far |
Live LF0 scorecard: The Scorecard | Research Performance dashboard
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell securities. Returns use LF0’s daily-close scorecard methodology.
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