This is a Scorecard review, revisiting a past LF0 research call against what actually happened.
Ticker: BSX Rating: Buy Published: 2026-06-14 Checkpoint: 2026-09-14 Entry price: $46.76 Latest price: $45.05 as of 2026-09-14 Stock return since entry: -3.7% Signal return: -3.7% Verdict: Incorrect so far
This is the 3-month checkpoint for this call. LF0 publishes monthly Scorecard updates through month 6, using the closest available daily close on or before the checkpoint date.
Read the original LF0 analysis
What I Said
I argued that Boston Scientific was a good business but not cheap enough to be an obvious Buy, because the stock already reflected solid growth and the balance sheet was about to get more demanding. The specific things I focused on were 15.8% organic growth in FY2025, 13.4x EV/EBITDA, and the risk that $12.6B of debt tied to the Penumbra integration could push leverage above 2.5x net debt/EBITDA.
Peer Comparison
| Company | Return Since Entry |
|---|---|
| BSX (this call) | -3.7% |
| ABT | +19.9% |
| EW | +0.4% |
| MDT | +19.9% |
| SYK | -3.8% |
| ZBH | +8.2% |
Why It’s Working (Or Not)
Over this tracking window, following my Buy rating would have lost 3.7%, so the call has not worked. The stock has drifted lower while the peer group has been mixed to stronger overall, with several comparables posting solid gains, which makes BSX’s relative weakness stand out. That outcome does not validate the more constructive stance I wanted to see; instead, it leaves the original valuation-and-leverage concern intact, because the market has not rewarded the stock for the growth and franchise quality I highlighted. The one part of the thesis that still matters most is the same one I flagged up front: if debt rises faster than cash generation, the case for paying up gets harder, and the price action has not shown that concern fading.
The June 2026 Cohort
Other directional calls published the same month:
| Ticker | Rating | Entry | Latest | Stock Return | Signal Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SKYH | Sell | $9.37 | $9.10 | -2.9% | +2.9% | Correct so far |
| SOUN | Sell | $7.33 | $4.72 | -35.6% | +35.6% | Correct so far |
| AEHR | Sell | $115.30 | $60.60 | -47.4% | +47.4% | Correct so far |
| BW | Sell | $17.76 | $4.62 | -74.0% | +74.0% | Correct so far |
Sector Scorecard: Healthcare
How are our Healthcare calls doing overall, and where does BSX sit among them?
| Peer call | Rating | Published | Signal return |
|---|---|---|---|
| CUE | Sell | 2026-09-02 | +38.0% |
| OWLT | Sell | 2026-08-12 | +29.3% |
| STXS | Sell | 2026-08-16 | +27.3% |
| WGS | Sell | 2026-08-09 | +18.3% |
| NUTX | Buy | 2026-08-16 | -1.2% |
| SDGR | Sell | 2026-08-17 | -29.9% |
Across sectors, Industrials led our directional calls with a 92% hit rate and +23.7% average signal return, while Technology also posted a 92% hit rate with +15.7% and the largest call count at 24. Communication Services was perfect at 100% with +17.4%, but Basic Materials and Consumer Cyclical were thin at 3 calls each, so we note the samples are small even though both showed 100% hit rates and +16.8% and +13.7% average returns, respectively. Healthcare was mid-pack at 57% with +11.0%, and Energy lagged at 50% with +2.5%; the best call was Technology’s CIFR at +58.9%, and the worst was Technology’s NLST at -135.2%.
Sector League Table
| Sector | Calls | Hit rate | Avg signal return | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industrials | 13 | 92% | +23.7% | BW +74.0% | CAR -12.3% |
| Communication Services | 5 | 100% | +17.4% | SPHR +29.7% | CHTR +6.3% |
| Utilities | 3 | 33% | +17.1% | FLNC +59.8% | TLN -6.9% |
| Basic Materials | 3 | 100% | +16.8% | LAR +30.9% | GFI +5.4% |
| Financial Services | 4 | 75% | +15.9% | MARA +35.5% | BMNR -22.1% |
| Technology | 24 | 92% | +15.7% | CIFR +58.9% | NLST -135.2% |
| Consumer Cyclical | 3 | 100% | +13.7% | PENN +19.5% | RRGB +7.4% |
| Healthcare | 7 | 57% | +11.0% | CUE +38.0% | SDGR -29.9% |
| Energy | 4 | 50% | +2.5% | TPL +14.0% | VNOM -8.0% |
| Real Estate* | 2 | 100% | +18.9% | SRG +34.8% | SKYH +2.9% |
| Unclassified* | 2 | 50% | +7.4% | NXE +19.5% | FISV -4.8% |
\* Fewer than 3 calls: not ranked.
Sector by Publish Month
| Sector | Jun 2026 | Jul 2026 | Aug 2026 | Sep 2026 | Oct 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Technology | +41.5% (2) | +1.0% (7) | +18.8% (3) | +20.2% (6) | +18.3% (6) |
| Industrials | +74.0% (1) | +35.1% (5) | +7.2% (2) | +2.4% (3) | +18.4% (2) |
| Healthcare | -5.1% (1) | — | +8.8% (5) | +38.0% (1) | — |
| Communication Services | — | +17.1% (1) | +19.5% (2) | +6.3% (1) | +24.6% (1) |
| Energy | — | +14.0% (1) | -8.0% (1) | -2.3% (1) | +6.4% (1) |
| Financial Services | — | +14.8% (3) | — | — | +19.0% (1) |
| Basic Materials | — | +14.3% (1) | — | +30.9% (1) | +5.4% (1) |
| Utilities | — | +59.8% (1) | -1.6% (1) | — | -6.9% (1) |
| Consumer Cyclical | — | — | +13.7% (3) | — | — |
| Unclassified | — | — | +19.5% (1) | — | -4.8% (1) |
| Real Estate | +2.9% (1) | — | +34.8% (1) | — | — |
Each cell: average signal return to date of the calls published that month (calls in brackets). Signal return is direction-adjusted, so a positive number means our call is right.
Live LF0 scorecard: The Scorecard | Research Performance dashboard
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell securities. Returns use LF0’s daily-close scorecard methodology.
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