This is a Scorecard review, revisiting a past LF0 research call against what actually happened.
Ticker: FLNC Rating: Sell Published: 2026-07-23 Checkpoint: 2026-08-23 Entry price: $14.42 Latest price: $11.34 as of 2026-08-21 Stock return since entry: -21.4% Signal return: +21.4% Verdict: Correct so far
This is the 1-month checkpoint for this call. LF0 publishes monthly Scorecard updates through month 6, using the closest available daily close on or before the checkpoint date.
Read the original LF0 analysis
What I Said
I argued that FLNC was still a Sell because the business had not yet shown it could turn its software and installed-base position into durable cash generation. My focus was on the same specific risks I highlighted originally: negative EBITDA, negative levered free cash flow, backlog conversion, liquidity pressure, and whether the 39.0% short interest was reflecting real operating risk rather than just skepticism.
Peer Comparison
| Company | Return Since Entry |
|---|---|
| FLNC (this call) | -21.4% |
| BE | -1.7% |
| ENVX | -22.8% |
| ESS | -4.8% |
| STEM | -5.5% |
Why It’s Working (Or Not)
So far, following my Sell would have earned about 21.4%, because the stock has fallen from my entry price to the latest print. That means the core bearish setup has been validated for now: the market has continued to punish a company that is still not self-funding, and the thesis has not needed any heroic assumptions to work. The peer group has also been mostly lower over the same stretch, which tells me FLNC has not been an isolated move, but it has still moved in the direction that supported my call. The specific concern I raised about cash burn and financing dependence remains the key point; I have not yet seen evidence that the 7.5 GW contracted backlog is converting into the kind of cash generation that would undermine the Sell.
What Could Still Prove Me Wrong
What could still prove me wrong is a clear improvement in the exact metrics I flagged: if revenue growth reaccelerates above 15% for multiple quarters, operating margin turns positive, and free cash flow moves decisively above zero, then the cash-burn thesis would weaken materially. I would also reassess if operating cash flow improves by roughly $100M from the -$236M TTM level or if current ratio and liquidity stop looking strained while backlog conversion accelerates. If those changes do not show up and the company keeps leaning on external financing, my Sell would remain intact.
The July 2026 Cohort
Other directional calls published the same month:
| Ticker | Rating | Entry | Latest | Stock Return | Signal Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NLST | Sell | $2.44 | $5.15 | +111.1% | -111.1% | Incorrect so far |
| BMNR | Sell | $17.74 | $23.06 | +30.0% | -30.0% | Incorrect so far |
| RDW | Sell | $8.99 | $10.33 | +14.9% | -14.9% | Incorrect so far |
| SMR | Strong Sell | $8.81 | $9.56 | +8.5% | -12.8% | Incorrect so far |
| RCAT | Sell | $7.83 | $8.32 | +6.3% | -6.3% | Incorrect so far |
| QUBT | Sell | $7.43 | $7.84 | +5.5% | -5.5% | Incorrect so far |
| VSAT | Sell | $69.54 | $69.92 | +0.5% | -0.5% | Incorrect so far |
| FTNT | Sell | $156.25 | $154.54 | -1.1% | +1.1% | Correct so far |
| AMBA | Sell | $72.90 | $67.14 | -7.9% | +7.9% | Correct so far |
| TPL | Sell | $408.26 | $367.32 | -10.0% | +10.0% | Correct so far |
| MARA | Sell | $11.67 | $10.47 | -10.3% | +10.3% | Correct so far |
| TTWO | Sell | $247.62 | $216.14 | -12.7% | +12.7% | Correct so far |
| HUT | Sell | $98.33 | $80.68 | -17.9% | +17.9% | Correct so far |
| ONTO | Sell | $319.32 | $254.55 | -20.3% | +20.3% | Correct so far |
| UAN | Buy | $110.58 | $133.93 | +21.1% | +21.1% | Correct so far |
| AMKR | Sell | $60.71 | $47.17 | -22.3% | +22.3% | Correct so far |
| MYRG | Sell | $391.51 | $282.65 | -27.8% | +27.8% | Correct so far |
| CIFR | Sell | $21.85 | $15.18 | -30.5% | +30.5% | Correct so far |
| MTZ | Sell | $380.63 | $235.33 | -38.2% | +38.2% | Correct so far |
Live LF0 scorecard: The Scorecard | Research Performance dashboard
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell securities. Returns use LF0’s daily-close scorecard methodology.
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