This is a Scorecard review, revisiting a past LF0 research call against what actually happened.
Ticker: RDW Rating: Sell Published: 2026-07-22 Checkpoint: 2026-08-22 Entry price: $8.99 Latest price: $12.02 as of 2026-08-21 Stock return since entry: +33.7% Signal return: -33.7% Verdict: Incorrect so far
This is the 1-month checkpoint for this call. LF0 publishes monthly Scorecard updates through month 6, using the closest available daily close on or before the checkpoint date.
Read the original LF0 analysis
What I Said
I rated RDW a Sell because I thought the company’s backlog and revenue scale were not yet translating into the cash generation that would justify the story. My focus was on the specific gap between $97M of quarterly revenue, $411.2M of backlog, and still-negative EBITDA margin and free cash flow, which I saw as evidence that the turnaround had not been proven. I also said I would want to see revenue stay above $100M for two straight quarters and free cash flow move toward positive before I would reconsider that stance.
Peer Comparison
| Company | Return Since Entry |
|---|---|
| RDW (this call) | +33.7% |
| AVAV | -4.1% |
| KTOS | +3.0% |
| LUNR | +4.5% |
| PL | -14.8% |
| RKLB | -10.3% |
Why It’s Working (Or Not)
So far, that call has not worked: if I had shorted RDW at my entry price, I would be down about 33.7% over the review window. The stock has moved sharply higher while the peer group has been mixed to weaker overall, with several comparable names also down, so RDW’s move has not been explained by a broad peer rerating alone. More importantly, the specific thesis I leaned on — that negative EBITDA and negative free cash flow would keep the market skeptical — has not been validated by price action in the near term. I cannot claim the cash-flow concern was wrong on the numbers I was given, but I can say the market has not rewarded that caution so far.
What Could Still Prove Me Wrong
Because this is still an active review, I would need to see the original operating concerns start to matter in the stock again to avoid being wrong on the final read. If RDW can hold revenue above $100M for two quarters and show a clear move toward positive EBITDA or free cash flow, that would weaken my bearish case further. On the other hand, if revenue slips back below $80M for two straight quarters, backlog falls under $350M, or the company needs fresh equity before cash flow turns positive, those would be the concrete developments that would support my original caution.
The July 2026 Cohort
Other directional calls published the same month:
| Ticker | Rating | Entry | Latest | Stock Return | Signal Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NLST | Sell | $2.44 | $5.15 | +111.1% | -111.1% | Incorrect so far |
| BMNR | Sell | $17.74 | $23.06 | +30.0% | -30.0% | Incorrect so far |
| SMR | Strong Sell | $8.81 | $9.56 | +8.5% | -12.8% | Incorrect so far |
| RCAT | Sell | $7.83 | $8.32 | +6.3% | -6.3% | Incorrect so far |
| QUBT | Sell | $7.43 | $7.84 | +5.5% | -5.5% | Incorrect so far |
| VSAT | Sell | $69.54 | $69.92 | +0.5% | -0.5% | Incorrect so far |
| FTNT | Sell | $156.25 | $154.54 | -1.1% | +1.1% | Correct so far |
| AMBA | Sell | $72.90 | $67.14 | -7.9% | +7.9% | Correct so far |
| TPL | Sell | $408.26 | $367.32 | -10.0% | +10.0% | Correct so far |
| MARA | Sell | $11.67 | $10.47 | -10.3% | +10.3% | Correct so far |
| TTWO | Sell | $247.62 | $216.14 | -12.7% | +12.7% | Correct so far |
| HUT | Sell | $98.33 | $80.68 | -17.9% | +17.9% | Correct so far |
| ONTO | Sell | $319.32 | $254.55 | -20.3% | +20.3% | Correct so far |
| UAN | Buy | $110.58 | $133.93 | +21.1% | +21.1% | Correct so far |
| AMKR | Sell | $60.71 | $47.17 | -22.3% | +22.3% | Correct so far |
| FLNC | Sell | $14.42 | $10.56 | -26.8% | +26.8% | Correct so far |
| MYRG | Sell | $391.51 | $282.65 | -27.8% | +27.8% | Correct so far |
| CIFR | Sell | $21.85 | $15.18 | -30.5% | +30.5% | Correct so far |
| MTZ | Sell | $380.63 | $235.33 | -38.2% | +38.2% | Correct so far |
Live LF0 scorecard: The Scorecard | Research Performance dashboard
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell securities. Returns use LF0’s daily-close scorecard methodology.
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