This is a Scorecard review, revisiting a past LF0 research call against what actually happened.
Ticker: UAN Rating: Buy Published: 2026-07-15 Entry price: $110.58 Latest price: $126.28 as of 2026-08-27 Stock return since entry: +14.2% Signal return: +14.2% Verdict: Correct so far
This call is still open — LF0 tracks every directional call for 182 days from publication, then freezes the verdict permanently. This one’s tracking window closes 2027-01-13.
Read the original LF0 analysis
What I Said
I rated UAN a Buy because my focus was on whether the latest earnings rebound was durable enough to keep cash flow ahead of the cycle, not on whether the business had a moat. I pointed to Q1 2026 revenue of $180M, EBITDA of $77.7M, and TTM levered free cash flow of $95.7M as evidence that the plants were still monetizing their asset base, and I noted that the board-compliance issue had been repaired. I also said I would want to see quarterly EBITDA stay above about $60M and operating margin remain above 30% before I would get more aggressive.
Peer Comparison
| Company | Return Since Entry |
|---|---|
| UAN (this call) | +14.2% |
| CF | +7.2% |
| IPI | +8.1% |
| MOS | +3.1% |
| YARIY | -1.1% |
Why It’s Working (Or Not)
So far, following my Buy has earned about 14.2%, which means the call has worked on price and the core thesis has not been broken. The peer group has been mixed to higher overall, with CF, IPI, and MOS all positive and only YARIY slightly negative, so UAN’s move is consistent with a constructive fertilizer backdrop rather than an isolated one-off. More importantly, the specific evidence I cited still matters: the stock has not yet shown that the Q1 rebound was a fluke, and nothing in the numbers I was given contradicts the idea that cash generation is still holding up. I cannot claim the thesis is fully proven, though, because I only know the latest price move and not whether EBITDA has stayed above my $60M threshold or margins have remained above 30%.
What Could Still Prove Me Wrong
What could still prove me wrong is a clear reversal in the operating metrics I highlighted: if quarterly EBITDA falls back toward the low-$20M area I flagged, or if revenue slips below $140M for another quarter, I would have to reconsider the durability of the rebound. I would also be wrong if operating margin drops back under 30%, because that would suggest the cost structure is not as intact as I thought. If fertilizer pricing weakens enough that cash flow no longer stays ahead of the cycle, that would undercut the main reason I stayed constructive.
The July 2026 Cohort
Other directional calls published the same month:
| Ticker | Rating | Entry | Latest | Stock Return | Signal Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NLST | Sell | $2.44 | $6.08 | +149.2% | -149.2% | Incorrect so far |
| BMNR | Sell | $17.74 | $25.63 | +44.5% | -44.5% | Incorrect so far |
| RDW | Sell | $8.99 | $11.27 | +25.4% | -25.4% | Incorrect so far |
| RCAT | Sell | $7.83 | $9.28 | +18.5% | -18.5% | Incorrect so far |
| QUBT | Sell | $7.43 | $8.65 | +16.4% | -16.4% | Incorrect so far |
| SMR | Strong Sell | $8.81 | $9.74 | +10.6% | -15.8% | Incorrect so far |
| FTNT | Sell | $156.25 | $172.78 | +10.6% | -10.6% | Incorrect so far |
| VSAT | Sell | $69.54 | $72.73 | +4.6% | -4.6% | Incorrect so far |
| MARA | Sell | $11.67 | $11.87 | +1.7% | -1.7% | Incorrect so far |
| AMBA | Sell | $72.90 | $71.16 | -2.4% | +2.4% | Correct so far |
| TTWO | Sell | $247.62 | $233.00 | -5.9% | +5.9% | Correct so far |
| ONTO | Sell | $319.32 | $292.62 | -8.4% | +8.4% | Correct so far |
| TPL | Sell | $408.92 | $369.71 | -9.6% | +9.6% | Correct so far |
| HUT | Sell | $98.33 | $87.13 | -11.4% | +11.4% | Correct so far |
| AMKR | Sell | $60.71 | $51.74 | -14.8% | +14.8% | Correct so far |
| CIFR | Sell | $19.87 | $16.77 | -15.6% | +15.6% | Correct so far |
| FLNC | Sell | $14.42 | $11.43 | -20.7% | +20.7% | Correct so far |
| MYRG | Sell | $391.51 | $309.39 | -21.0% | +21.0% | Correct so far |
| MTZ | Sell | $380.63 | $251.13 | -34.0% | +34.0% | Correct so far |
Live LF0 scorecard: The Scorecard | Research Performance dashboard
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell securities. Returns use LF0’s daily-close scorecard methodology.
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