This is a Scorecard review, revisiting a past LF0 research call against what actually happened.
Ticker: NUTX Rating: Buy Published: 2026-08-16 Checkpoint: 2026-10-16 Entry price: $188.41 Latest price: $200.80 as of 2026-10-15 Stock return since entry: +6.6% Signal return: +6.6% Verdict: Correct so far
This is the 2-month checkpoint for this call. LF0 publishes monthly Scorecard updates through month 6, using the closest available daily close on or before the checkpoint date.
Read the original LF0 analysis
What I Said
I rated NUTX a Buy because I thought the key question was whether reimbursement risk was already overwhelming the cash engine, and I argued the answer was no. My original case leaned on the company still showing a 15.6% FCF yield, 19.2% FCF margin, and 37.5% operating margin, while also acknowledging the specific overhang from IDR exposure, accrued arbitration expenses, and dilution tied to earn-outs and stock-based compensation.
Peer Comparison
| Company | Return Since Entry |
|---|---|
| NUTX (this call) | +6.6% |
| AMWL | -4.1% |
| HIMS | +1.1% |
| LFMD | -26.2% |
| TDOC | -11.1% |
| TEM | +28.1% |
Why It’s Working (Or Not)
A long position would have earned 6.6% over this tracking window, so the Buy has worked to date. That outcome fits my original emphasis on cash generation holding up despite the reimbursement and arbitration risks, and it is consistent with the stock staying constructive while the peer set has been mixed to weaker overall, with several comparables down and only a few higher. The move does not prove the full thesis, but it does support my view that the earnings base was real rather than purely aspirational. The specific risk stack I highlighted has not yet overwhelmed the cash story in price terms.
What Could Still Prove Me Wrong
If NUTX gives back the gain and starts trading materially below my entry while the peer group remains mixed, that would weaken the idea that the cash engine is insulating the business from reimbursement risk. I would also be wrong if the market begins to treat the IDR exposure, arbitration expense burden, or dilution overhang as a larger problem than the current price action suggests. A sustained break in the cash-conversion profile that pushes the stock back toward the low end of its recent range would be the clearest sign that my Buy call was premature.
The August 2026 Cohort
Other directional calls published the same month:
| Ticker | Rating | Entry | Latest | Stock Return | Signal Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SDGR | Sell | $17.40 | $25.48 | +46.4% | -46.4% | Incorrect so far |
| VNOM | Sell | $41.67 | $43.73 | +4.9% | -4.9% | Incorrect so far |
| AES | Sell | $14.71 | $14.97 | +1.8% | -1.8% | Incorrect so far |
| RRGB | Sell | $9.51 | $9.14 | -3.9% | +3.9% | Correct so far |
| GTN | Sell | $4.83 | $4.46 | -7.7% | +7.7% | Correct so far |
| LHX | Sell | $260.92 | $240.50 | -7.8% | +7.8% | Correct so far |
| WGS | Sell | $77.88 | $70.22 | -9.8% | +9.8% | Correct so far |
| BA | Sell | $210.46 | $188.73 | -10.3% | +10.3% | Correct so far |
| NNDM | Sell | $1.65 | $1.44 | -12.7% | +12.7% | Correct so far |
| OI | Sell | $6.79 | $5.92 | -12.8% | +12.8% | Correct so far |
| ADTN | Sell | $7.76 | $6.53 | -15.9% | +15.9% | Correct so far |
| NXE | Sell | $10.40 | $8.56 | -17.7% | +17.7% | Correct so far |
| PENN | Sell | $18.56 | $15.21 | -18.0% | +18.0% | Correct so far |
| LRCX | Sell | $343.48 | $277.46 | -19.2% | +19.2% | Correct so far |
| OWLT | Sell | $5.81 | $4.44 | -23.6% | +23.6% | Correct so far |
| STXS | Sell | $1.39 | $1.05 | -24.5% | +24.5% | Correct so far |
| SPHR | Sell | $147.34 | $108.85 | -26.1% | +26.1% | Correct so far |
| SRG | Strong Sell | $2.11 | $1.65 | -21.8% | +32.7% | Correct so far |
Live LF0 scorecard: The Scorecard | Research Performance dashboard
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell securities. Returns use LF0’s daily-close scorecard methodology.
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