This is a Scorecard review, revisiting a past LF0 research call against what actually happened.
Ticker: UAN Rating: Buy Published: 2026-07-15 Checkpoint: 2026-10-15 Entry price: $110.58 Latest price: $127.58 as of 2026-10-14 Stock return since entry: +15.4% Signal return: +15.4% Verdict: Correct so far
This is the 3-month checkpoint for this call. LF0 publishes monthly Scorecard updates through month 6, using the closest available daily close on or before the checkpoint date.
Read the original LF0 analysis
What I Said
I rated UAN a Buy because I thought the key question was whether the earnings rebound was durable enough to keep cash flow ahead of the cycle. I pointed to Q1 2026 revenue of $180M, EBITDA of $77.7M, and TTM levered free cash flow of $95.7M as evidence that the business was still monetizing its asset base, and I noted that the board-compliance issue had been repaired. I also said I would get more constructive if quarterly EBITDA stayed above about $60M and operating margin held above 30%, while a drop back toward the low-$20M EBITDA range or revenue below $140M would weaken the case.
Peer Comparison
| Company | Return Since Entry |
|---|---|
| UAN (this call) | +15.4% |
| CF | +2.4% |
| IPI | -7.6% |
| MOS | -18.1% |
| YARIY | -10.4% |
Why It’s Working (Or Not)
Over this tracking window, following my Buy would have earned 15.4%, so the call has worked to date. The stock has also held up better than the peer set overall, with CF modestly higher but IPI, MOS, and YARIY all lower over the same stretch, which is consistent with UAN continuing to trade as the stronger name in the group. That supports the core idea that the rebound was not just a one-quarter fluke in price action. The specific durability test I set around the earnings rebound has not been disproven by the market move, and the quick repair of the governance issue remains part of the thesis that has held up.
What Could Still Prove Me Wrong
I would be wrong if the next couple of quarters show EBITDA sliding back toward the low-$20M range I flagged, because that would suggest the cash generation is not durable. I would also reassess if revenue falls back below $140M for another quarter, since that would look more like a temporary rebound than a repeatable run rate. If the stock starts to lag the fertilizer peer group while those operating metrics weaken, that would be a clear sign my Buy was too optimistic.
The July 2026 Cohort
Other directional calls published the same month:
| Ticker | Rating | Entry | Latest | Stock Return | Signal Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NLST | Sell | $2.44 | $5.80 | +137.7% | -137.7% | Incorrect so far |
| BMNR | Sell | $17.74 | $22.25 | +25.4% | -25.4% | Incorrect so far |
| FTNT | Sell | $156.25 | $184.05 | +17.8% | -17.8% | Incorrect so far |
| RDW | Sell | $8.99 | $8.62 | -4.1% | +4.1% | Correct so far |
| VSAT | Sell | $69.54 | $61.73 | -11.2% | +11.2% | Correct so far |
| TPL | Sell | $408.26 | $354.57 | -13.2% | +13.2% | Correct so far |
| QUBT | Sell | $7.43 | $6.31 | -15.1% | +15.1% | Correct so far |
| TTWO | Sell | $247.62 | $201.23 | -18.7% | +18.7% | Correct so far |
| HUT | Sell | $98.33 | $74.87 | -23.9% | +23.9% | Correct so far |
| ONTO | Sell | $319.32 | $241.41 | -24.4% | +24.4% | Correct so far |
| MYRG | Sell | $391.51 | $291.17 | -25.6% | +25.6% | Correct so far |
| AMKR | Sell | $60.60 | $44.82 | -26.0% | +26.0% | Correct so far |
| MARA | Sell | $11.67 | $8.23 | -29.5% | +29.5% | Correct so far |
| RCAT | Sell | $7.83 | $4.73 | -39.6% | +39.6% | Correct so far |
| MTZ | Sell | $380.63 | $194.46 | -48.9% | +48.9% | Correct so far |
| SMR | Strong Sell | $8.81 | $5.83 | -33.8% | +50.7% | Correct so far |
| CIFR | Sell | $21.85 | $9.94 | -54.5% | +54.5% | Correct so far |
| FLNC | Sell | $14.42 | $6.21 | -56.9% | +56.9% | Correct so far |
Live LF0 scorecard: The Scorecard | Research Performance dashboard
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell securities. Returns use LF0’s daily-close scorecard methodology.
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