This is a Scorecard review, revisiting a past LF0 research call against what actually happened.
Ticker: VNOM Rating: Sell Published: 2026-08-04 Checkpoint: 2026-10-04 Entry price: $41.67 Latest price: $40.64 as of 2026-10-02 Stock return since entry: -2.5% Signal return: +2.5% Verdict: Correct so far
This is the 2-month checkpoint for this call. LF0 publishes monthly Scorecard updates through month 6, using the closest available daily close on or before the checkpoint date.
Read the original LF0 analysis
What I Said
I rated VNOM a Sell because I thought the valuation was already assuming a cleaner cash conversion path than the business had actually delivered. My focus was on the gap between strong revenue growth and weak cash generation, especially the TTM levered free cash flow of -$1B and the -66.3% FCF margin, which made the current multiple look hard to defend. I also flagged that if free cash flow stayed positive for two straight quarters, or if commodity weakness and reserve pressure returned, my bearish case would need to be reconsidered.
Peer Comparison
| Company | Return Since Entry |
|---|---|
| VNOM (this call) | -2.5% |
| BSM | +0.7% |
| DVN | +8.9% |
| FANG | -3.2% |
| PR | +8.6% |
| TPL | -13.9% |
Why It’s Working (Or Not)
Following the Sell would have earned 2.5% over this tracking window, so the call has worked to date. VNOM is down modestly, which is consistent with my view that the market was still pricing in cash conversion that had not yet shown up in the numbers. The peer set has been mixed, with several comparables higher and several lower, so VNOM’s weaker path has not simply mirrored the group. That supports the specific part of my thesis that the stock’s valuation was vulnerable if cash flow did not improve quickly enough.
What Could Still Prove Me Wrong
If VNOM can string together two consecutive quarters of positive free cash flow, that would directly challenge the core of my Sell thesis. I would also have to rethink the call if the company shows that the royalty stream is covering its capital and financing burden without relying on favorable commodity conditions. A move back toward the 2023-style cash flow pattern, or a clear improvement in cash conversion that makes the current multiple easier to justify, would be enough to change my view.
The August 2026 Cohort
Other directional calls published the same month:
| Ticker | Rating | Entry | Latest | Stock Return | Signal Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SDGR | Sell | $17.40 | $30.31 | +74.2% | -74.2% | Incorrect so far |
| AES | Sell | $14.71 | $14.91 | +1.4% | -1.4% | Incorrect so far |
| LRCX | Sell | $343.48 | $347.49 | +1.2% | -1.2% | Incorrect so far |
| NNDM | Sell | $1.65 | $1.63 | -1.2% | +1.2% | Correct so far |
| GTN | Sell | $4.83 | $4.54 | -6.0% | +6.0% | Correct so far |
| WGS | Sell | $77.88 | $73.09 | -6.2% | +6.2% | Correct so far |
| BA | Sell | $210.46 | $193.56 | -8.0% | +8.0% | Correct so far |
| ADTN | Sell | $7.76 | $7.04 | -9.3% | +9.3% | Correct so far |
| LHX | Sell | $260.92 | $236.60 | -9.3% | +9.3% | Correct so far |
| OWLT | Sell | $5.81 | $5.06 | -12.9% | +12.9% | Correct so far |
| SPHR | Sell | $147.34 | $128.25 | -13.0% | +13.0% | Correct so far |
| ALT | Sell | $3.15 | $2.73 | -13.2% | +13.2% | Correct so far |
| NXE | Sell | $10.40 | $9.00 | -13.5% | +13.5% | Correct so far |
| NUTX | Buy | $188.41 | $216.50 | +14.9% | +14.9% | Correct so far |
| STXS | Sell | $1.39 | $1.18 | -15.1% | +15.1% | Correct so far |
| RRGB | Sell | $9.51 | $7.95 | -16.4% | +16.4% | Correct so far |
| OI | Sell | $6.79 | $5.60 | -17.5% | +17.5% | Correct so far |
| PENN | Sell | $18.56 | $14.77 | -20.4% | +20.4% | Correct so far |
| SRG | Strong Sell | $2.11 | $1.81 | -14.2% | +21.3% | Correct so far |
Live LF0 scorecard: The Scorecard | Research Performance dashboard
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell securities. Returns use LF0’s daily-close scorecard methodology.
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