This is a Scorecard review, revisiting a past LF0 research call against what actually happened.
Ticker: SPHR Rating: Sell Published: 2026-08-27 Checkpoint: 2026-09-27 Entry price: $147.34 Latest price: $141.13 as of 2026-09-25 Stock return since entry: -4.2% Signal return: +4.2% Verdict: Correct so far
This is the 1-month checkpoint for this call. LF0 publishes monthly Scorecard updates through month 6, using the closest available daily close on or before the checkpoint date.
Read the original LF0 analysis
What I Said
I said Sphere’s cash generation was real, but that the operating profit line had not yet proven durable enough to justify the valuation. My main concerns were the rich multiple, the $913.3M debt load, and the MSG Networks term loan due in 2029, while my main support was the $442.7M of levered free cash flow and 32.6% FCF margin. I also said I would want to see sustained positive operating margin and FCF above $400M before getting more constructive.
Peer Comparison
| Company | Return Since Entry |
|---|---|
| SPHR (this call) | -4.2% |
| CNK | +3.2% |
| DIS | -0.6% |
| LYV | -5.4% |
| MSGE | +1.2% |
| MSGS | +2.3% |
Why It’s Working (Or Not)
So far, following my Sell call would have earned about 4.2%, because SPHR has moved lower since I wrote it. That means the market has, at least for now, been more skeptical of the rich valuation and balance-sheet risk than the original bull case implied. The peer set has been mixed to slightly positive overall, with several comparables up while others are down, so SPHR’s decline is not just a broad peer-group move; it has shown some relative weakness versus a number of names I was watching. What has not yet been fully validated is the operating-margin part of my thesis, because I have not been given new operating results here—so the call is working on price, but the specific test I wanted on durable profitability is still only partially observed.
What Could Still Prove Me Wrong
If Sphere can keep quarterly revenue above $386.4M and turn operating margin positive while still holding FCF above $400M, that would directly challenge my original concern that the fixed-cost base is not yet absorbed. I would also be wrong if the debt load and 2029 MSG Networks term loan continue to look manageable without any pressure on cash generation, because that would weaken the balance-sheet risk I highlighted. Until I see that kind of operating proof, a further slide in revenue back toward $282.7M or a clear deterioration in cash conversion would keep my Sell thesis intact.
The August 2026 Cohort
Other directional calls published the same month:
| Ticker | Rating | Entry | Latest | Stock Return | Signal Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SDGR | Sell | $17.40 | $28.85 | +65.8% | -65.8% | Incorrect so far |
| WGS | Sell | $77.88 | $88.40 | +13.5% | -13.5% | Incorrect so far |
| AES | Sell | $14.71 | $14.87 | +1.1% | -1.1% | Incorrect so far |
| VNOM | Sell | $41.67 | $40.93 | -1.8% | +1.8% | Correct so far |
| ALT | Sell | $3.15 | $3.06 | -2.9% | +2.9% | Correct so far |
| NNDM | Sell | $1.65 | $1.57 | -4.8% | +4.8% | Correct so far |
| GTN | Sell | $4.83 | $4.58 | -5.2% | +5.2% | Correct so far |
| BA | Sell | $210.46 | $198.07 | -5.9% | +5.9% | Correct so far |
| STXS | Sell | $1.39 | $1.30 | -6.5% | +6.5% | Correct so far |
| ADTN | Sell | $7.76 | $7.13 | -8.1% | +8.1% | Correct so far |
| LRCX | Sell | $343.48 | $315.21 | -8.2% | +8.2% | Correct so far |
| LHX | Sell | $260.92 | $237.69 | -8.9% | +8.9% | Correct so far |
| NXE | Sell | $10.40 | $9.19 | -11.6% | +11.6% | Correct so far |
| OWLT | Sell | $5.81 | $5.04 | -13.3% | +13.3% | Correct so far |
| OI | Sell | $6.79 | $5.86 | -13.7% | +13.7% | Correct so far |
| PENN | Sell | $18.56 | $15.65 | -15.7% | +15.7% | Correct so far |
| NUTX | Buy | $188.41 | $220.11 | +16.8% | +16.8% | Correct so far |
| SRG | Strong Sell | $2.11 | $1.82 | -13.7% | +20.6% | Correct so far |
| RRGB | Sell | $9.51 | $7.25 | -23.8% | +23.8% | Correct so far |
Live LF0 scorecard: The Scorecard | Research Performance dashboard
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell securities. Returns use LF0’s daily-close scorecard methodology.
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