Tag: random walk
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SPY Shows Strong Returns But No Reliable Daily Timing Edge; Focus on Volatility and Risk Management
Executive Summary Return profile: SPY earned 23.94% annualized with 12.81% volatility and a 10.15% maximum drawdown in the sample. Statistical edge: Weak. Variance-ratio tests do not reject a random-walk benchmark, and ARIMA selects (0,0,0), so daily return timing has not earned trust. Practical takeaway: Pivot from trying to predict tomorrow’s direction toward risk modeling, volatility…