strategy evaluation
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NVDA’s 114% Annualized Return Shows No Reliable Daily Timing Edge: A Risk-Aware Allocation Hypothesis
Executive Summary Return profile: NVDA earned 114.11% annualized with 49.53% volatility and a 29.46% maximum drawdown in the sample. Statistical edge: Weak. Variance-ratio tests do not reject a random-walk benchmark, and ARIMA selects (0,0,0), so daily return timing has not earned trust. Practical takeaway: Treat any strategy idea as a hypothesis for walk-forward testing, not…